6 Written Questions

1. Groupthink
   High cohesiveness, Strong Leadership and Insulation of the group from outside opinions.
2. Little mathematical skill required.
   Wide acceptance.
   They can: identify systematic change more quickly, better predict the effect of such change on the future. Pick up on "broken legs"
3. Combination of opinions of mangers and executives who are most likely to have the best insights about the firms business.
   Data collection: One-on-one interviews, group meetings
   Best to have wide representation of managerial flavors.
4. Data collection: telephone contacts, personal interviews, questionnaires. (Extensive statistical analysis usually is applied to survey results in order to survey results in order to test hypotheses regarding consumer behavior)
5. Assumes that consumers actually plan their purchases. They follow through with their plans.
6. Sales force composites. Consumer surveys. Jury of executive opinion. Delphi method.

5 Multiple Choice Questions

1. Sales people provide a range of forecasts for a given SKU.
   Optimistic, Pessimistic, Most likely
   Forecasts for SKUs aggregated by sales manger for given product line or geographical area. Higher level planners than aggregate product line or geographic forecasts to arrive at projections for a given planning horizon.
   1. What are the cons to sales force composites?
   2. What are sales force composites?
   3. What are the pros to sales force composites?
   4. What are consumer surveys?
2. Data as a historical series is not available, or is not relevant to future needs.
   An unusual product or a unique project is being contemplated.
   Forecast horizon is longer than the safe extrapolation of a quantitative method.
   Trying to forecast beyond 1 or 2 years.
   1. What are the types of qualitative forecasts?
   2. What are the problems with qualitative forecasts?
   3. What are the pros of qualitative forecasts?
   4. When do you use qualitative forecasts?
3. Overcome groupthink issues. Anonymity is maintained will not see who said what. Leader contacts experts, sent survey to respond to. Each expert can edit and read the report and resend new answers till the report is okay by everyone.
   1. What are sales force composites?
   2. What is Jury of Executive Opinion?
   3. What are consumer surveys?
   4. What is the delphi method?
4. Purchase intentions
   1. What are the questions centered around in consumer surveys?
   2. What are the pros to consumer surveys?
   3. What are the cons to sales force composites?
   4. What are the pros to sales force composites?
5. Model that people can pick up on if someone might go to the movies or not etc.
   1. What is the delphi method?
   2. What are "broken leg cues"
   3. What are sales force composites?
   4. What are consumer surveys?

5 True/False Questions

1. What are the cons to sales force composites? → Information collected and organized from sales force.
   Have daily contact with the customer.

   True        False

2. What are the problems with qualitative forecasts? → Little mathematical skill required.
   Wide acceptance.
   They can: identify systematic change more quickly, better predict the effect of such change on the future. Pick up on "broken legs"

   True        False

3. When are these assumptions more realistic? → Information collected and organized from sales force.
   Have daily contact with the customer.

   True        False

4. What are the pros to sales force composites? → Information collected and organized from sales force.
   Have daily contact with the customer.

   True        False

5. What are the pros of Jury of Executive Opinion? → Forecasting is done quickly and easily, without need of elaborate statistics. May be the best means of forecasting feasible in the absence of adequate data.

   True        False