RED 542 - Finance

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Created by:

jbbonnet  on August 9, 2010

Subjects:

finance, real estate

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RED 542 - Finance

Cap Rate?
Year 1 NOI
*Year 1 snap shot; what about future earnings?
MARKET OUTCOME

Cap Rates are derived from NOIs and Sale Prices in the market that the Cap Rate is for...***need to CHECK to see if Direct Capitalization can be used to evaluate the property

*Seller: can load up on tenants on the last year to get a larger value on the Cap Rate Evaluation

*The rate at which future flows of constant cash flows are discounted...at which they are capitalized into PV
**ASSUMPTION: constant growth, constant cap rate

=NOI (t+1) / Value (t)

**Cap Rate is a Discount Rate with Growth embedded

An infinite sum approximation
1/41
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Definitions

Cap Rate?Year 1 NOI
*Year 1 snap shot; what about future earnings?
MARKET OUTCOME

Cap Rates are derived from NOIs and Sale Prices in the market that the Cap Rate is for...***need to CHECK to see if Direct Capitalization can be used to evaluate the property

*Seller: can load up on tenants on the last year to get a larger value on the Cap Rate Evaluation

*The rate at which future flows of constant cash flows are discounted...at which they are capitalized into PV
**ASSUMPTION: constant growth, constant cap rate

=NOI (t+1) / Value (t)

**Cap Rate is a Discount Rate with Growth embedded

An infinite sum approximation
NPV?Discounted cash flows of entire income coming in...
[don't discount the first payment into investment, add this neg. # to the end of the formula]


*is an indication of the "market value" of a given asset

*can compare irregular cash flows, shows residual after requiring return/compensation for risk

*weakness: not a return, scaling may be a problem, need to define a Discount Rate
NOT A CLEAR INDICATION OF RETURN OF INVESTMENT
PV? Present Value

Assumes a CONSTANT cash flow
Mortgage Interest Rate? Discount Rate against you
*this is where the bank assesses your risk for their lent $ to you
GIM Gross Income Multiplier
=Value (t) / EGI (t+1)
IRRInternal Rate of Return

*is the discount rate at which NPV is 0, anticipated given return of of capital

*does NOT include TIME VALUE & COMPENSATION OF INVESTMENT RISK, opportunity cost, Scale of Project

*other weaknesses: multiple IRRs in a cash flow; ignores possibility of doing something else with your $


*Can compare irregular cash flows, industry standard
A CLEAR INDICATION OF RETURN ON INVESTMENT
2 #s that matter in Real Estate? 1) How the market values a property?
2) How you value the same property?
R.E. differs from other goods? Heterogeneous
Durable
Costly to Alter
Immobile (exhibits Spatial Fixity)
Long-lived
Expensive
Approaches to Valuation? (Replacement) Cost Approach
Market (or Sales) Approach
Income Capitalization
-Income Multipliers
-Direct Capitalization
-Discounted Cash Flow
Market Value? = PV (present value) or cash flows

*Sales Price may deviate from this based on:
-Risk
-Financing
-Liquidity
-Market conditions

"True" Market Value may never be observed
Cash Flows? may be highly irregular
may run over different time horizons
may be uncertain
NOI Net Operating Income
-a measure of the cash flow from a property
=Income - Operating Expenses
Cap Ex are NOT included
Hurdle Rate HR > IRR, the NPV is Positive

HR < IRR, the NPV is Negative
EGI =PGI - Vacancy + Reimbursables
PGI = [income if building is full] - vacancy
Discount Rate Present Value of Future Cash Flows
&
the Disc Rate = your established DR for the specific project/investment
Efficiency = GLA (gross leasable area)/ GBA (gross building area)
Expense Stop Limits expenses to Landlord (lease year stop)

*Caps expenses to the Landlord, so expenses above the stop are paid by the tenant
i.e. base year stop (& adjustments)
Leverage as leverage increases:
*debt service rises
*risk of loss increases
*risk premium rises
*interest rate rises
Positive Leverage =when project IRR exceeds the Internal Rate (interest rate) on the Debt
OR Interest Rate on Loan is less than Unlevered IRR %

Returns can be enhanced by "levering up"
Risk may also rise

As Leverage increases,
*Debt Service rises
*Risk of Loss increases
*Risk Premia rises
*Interest Rates rise
DCR Ratio of cash available to service debt

=NOI / Annual Debt Service

*less than 1 is a negative cash flow
Cash-on-Cash =Annual BTCF / Total Cash Invested

*Simple interest calculated, does NOT factor in Compounding Interest
Single Period Measures Cap Rate
GIM
Equity Yield
Equity Multiple Ratio of All Distributions (from Operation and Sale) to Equity over the Equity Partners

*Shows a simple measure of cash back
*no time, still requires forecasts, ignores the value of waiting
Sensitivity Analysis Change one variable at a time

Then assess the impact of that single change
Scenario Analysis Use Market Analysis / Rent Roll to build

Forecast Any and All changes in variables

Then assess the impact of the scenario
Pro Forma a forecast of "expected" cash flows

it is a tool!

Where is there uncertainty?
-rents
-vacancy
-expenses
-interest rates
-taxes
-exit cap rates and sale price

Two BROAD categories of RISK:
-failure to perform risk
-forecasting risk
Cap Ex Normal Reserves

For Major Expenditures (HVAC, roof, elevator, etc)

Tenant Improvements (TI) with or without turnover
*reimbursed TI goes in with other income!
Lease Supply and Demand can be created with a Lease

Creating a functional/financeable lease is nontrivial

NOTE: a property's value based on the WHOLE RENT ROLL may differ from the value of the sum of its leases
Types of Leases NNN Lease (Net Lease) = lessee pays rent, taxes, insurance, maintenance (but not mgmt fee)

Gross Lease (full service) = lessee pays flat rent, landlord pays expenses

Modified leases = hybrid, blend
Effective Rent 1-forecast cash flows of different leases
2-choose discount rate
3-calculate lease's PV

the level rent is called the "equivalent rent"
Mortgage Mechanics Collateral & Cash Flow...

*low risk of loss makes for LOW interest rates
*low Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio --> low risk
*High Debt-Coverage Ratio (DCR) --> low risk

when rates are LOW, we'd like to borrow more

what happens as loan amount increases?
LTV up, DCR down, RISK up --> higher Interest Rates
Static Analysis S.A. collapses development, lease-up, operation, and disposition into a SINGLE STEP.

in this the VALUE of the LAND is:
*the PV of the completed asset less the costs of getting to that PV
Equity Yield Year One Analysis/Snapshot

Cash out of the deal compared to Equity you put in

*Not an overall return, used with stable asset

When better than an IRR?
*When we are guessing the exit cap-rate
*if the quality of the info we are using in the IRR is not reliable, we get a better picture using EY
IRR vs. NPV*an IRR or NPV without the correct discount rates or hurdle rates are meaningless

*SOMETIMES you have to think about Parking more money $ at a lower rate, and it works out better than just picking the higher return

IRR is a rate of return, not the overall Return

NPV is a harder # to compare, since IRR has bonds and other rates that are public information that you can compare it to...
Interest Reserve NOTE: Costs in a Static Model take away dollars that you can use to bid on the property

*it is a RESERVE, not a CARRY

*if we expect it to happen, should we cost it out?
*Interest Reserve should NOT be in the static because we don't expect it to happen
Shared Appreciation MortgageObtain a lower interest rate when you share a percentage of the apprec. with the lender

At SALE: owe the difference of the appreciation from when you purchased the property, PLUS the remaining principal balance of the mortgage

***TRADEOFFS: need to know about lower interest rate, analyze the NOI, this will effect your going-out price and estimate for the amount going to the bank.

ALSO, if you plan on keeping it VERY long term, no bank will give you this deal (SAM).
Passive Tax Loss Carries on through every year, up until SALE
ANSWERS on the TEST First DEFINE what he is asking//the term

Then assess based on the CONTEXT of the question

and then MY OPINION, ANSWER
Lessons from MIDTERM*Direct Cap Rate: realistic? Not if major changes coming down the line on the CF/ProForma

*Both loans were realistic to the Lender, but 2nd loan was a little riskier with first 2 years in the NEG

*Check when the Purchase Year is and see if neg cash flows created where more Equity will be required in the deal from EP or Developer
Equity *a claim on Residual cash flows

less riskier than debt

Payment NOT defined (like Debt)

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