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hindsight bias the tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have forseen it. 'i knew it all along' phenomenon critical thinking thinking that does not blindly accept argument and conclusions theory an explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes and predicts observations hypothesis a testable prediction, often implied by a theory operational definition a statement of the procedures used to define research variables replication repeating the essence of a research study, usually with different participants in different situations, to see whether the basic findings extends to other participants and circumstances case study an observation technique in which one person is studied in depth in the hope of revealing universal principles survey a technique for ascertaining the self-reported attitudes or behaviors of people, usually by questioning a representative, random sample false consensus effect the tendency to overestimate the extent to which others share our beliefs and behaviors population all cases in a group, from which samples may be drawn for a study random sample a sample that fairly represents a populations because each member has an equal chance of inclusion naturalistic observation observing and recording behavior in naturally occurring situations without trying to manipulate and control the situation correlation coefficient a statistical measure of the extent to which two factors vary together and thus of how well either factor predicts the other scatter plot a graphed cluster of dots each of which represents the values of two variables illusory correlation the perception of a relationship where none exists experiment a research method in which an investigator manipulates one or more factors to observe the behavioral effect or effects on a mental process double-blind procedure an experimental procedure in which both the participants and staff are ignorant about whther the participants have received the treatment or placebo placebo effect experimental results caused by expectations alone. an effect on behavior cause by the administration of an inert substance, which is assumed to be an active agent experimental condition the condition of an experiment that exposes the participants to the treatment that is to one version of the independent variable control condition the condition of an experiment that contrasts with the experimental condition and serves as a comparison for evaluating the effect of the treatment. random assignment assigning participants to experimental and control conditions by chance, thus minimizing preexisting differences between those assigned to the different groups independent variable the experimental factor that is manipulated. the varible whose effect is being studied dependent variable the experimental factor that is being measured; the variable that may change in response to manipulations of the independent variable mode the most frequently occurring score in a distribution mean arthimetic average median the middle score in a distribution range the difference between the highest and lowest scores in a distribution standard deviation a computed measure of how much scores vary around the main score statistical significance a statistical statement of how likely it is that an obtained result occurred by chance. culture the enduring behaviors, ideas, attitudes and traditions shared by a large group of people and transmitted from one generation to the next