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-influence of vivid info in judging probabilities of events
-Psychologically salient info (info that has been recently or often brought to mind) influences your judgment of probability
Media and Crime
estimates of % of accused felons pleading insanity and % of felony convictions that come to trial are overestimated because of the news/crime shows
Couples and Housework
estimate how much they do of cooking and cleaning, always totaled more than 100%, when thinking about how many times you've done it, can always remember when you did it, don't always see when they do
Linda the Bank teller
Feminism seems more representative of Linda than bank teller (embodies that stereotype)
Law of Small Numbers
the tendency to think that small, random samples should look representative of the population
Disease Outbreak Study
-Phrase it as to how many will be saved: people tend to go for the sure thing (Gain framing=risk averse)
-Phrase it as to how many will die: people willing to gamble (loss-framing=more risky)
-people make estimates by adjusting from an initial value
-can manipulate estimates by changing starting points
asked to estimate answer of multiplication. Start with 1x2x3...estimate 512 (small anchor). Start with 8x7x6... estimate 2200 (large anchor)
Ask outrageous thing (Is the average price of a textbook $7,128) people obviously answer no. Ask average- say something high. People given extremely high anchors will give higher than average estimates
set up something outrageous, put it next to real thing, makes real thing look small
Sole Decision Custody Case
imagine serving on a jury in an only child sole custody case
-Asked to whom you would award custody? Say Parent B because of close relationship with child
-Asked to whom you would deny custody? Say Parent B because they travel a lot
Prescriptive Decision Theory
what would be a better way to make decisions than what we do now (recommendation)
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