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Availability Heuristic

-influence of vivid info in judging probabilities of events
-Psychologically salient info (info that has been recently or often brought to mind) influences your judgment of probability

Media and Crime

estimates of % of accused felons pleading insanity and % of felony convictions that come to trial are overestimated because of the news/crime shows

Couples and Housework

estimate how much they do of cooking and cleaning, always totaled more than 100%, when thinking about how many times you've done it, can always remember when you did it, don't always see when they do

Representativeness Heuristic

people distort numbers based on their current settings

Linda the Bank teller

Feminism seems more representative of Linda than bank teller (embodies that stereotype)

Law of Small Numbers

the tendency to think that small, random samples should look representative of the population

Gambler's Fallacy

the belief that you are due to win after you've lost a bunch of times in a row

Framing Effect

decision making is affected by how the problem is framed

Disease Outbreak Study

-Phrase it as to how many will be saved: people tend to go for the sure thing (Gain framing=risk averse)
-Phrase it as to how many will die: people willing to gamble (loss-framing=more risky)


-people make estimates by adjusting from an initial value
-can manipulate estimates by changing starting points


asked to estimate answer of multiplication. Start with 1x2x3...estimate 512 (small anchor). Start with 8x7x6... estimate 2200 (large anchor)

Extreme Anchors

Ask outrageous thing (Is the average price of a textbook $7,128) people obviously answer no. Ask average- say something high. People given extremely high anchors will give higher than average estimates

Perceptual Contrast

set up something outrageous, put it next to real thing, makes real thing look small

Illusory Correlation

can't pick up correlations that are really there, but make up ones that aren't

Confirmation Bias

look for info that will confirm a hypothesis we already have

Sole Decision Custody Case

imagine serving on a jury in an only child sole custody case
-Asked to whom you would award custody? Say Parent B because of close relationship with child
-Asked to whom you would deny custody? Say Parent B because they travel a lot

Descriptive Decision Theory

simply describes what people do (i.e. heuristics)

Prescriptive Decision Theory

what would be a better way to make decisions than what we do now (recommendation)

Normative Decision Theory

the best possible decision making, optimizing goals over the long run

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