Scheduled maintenance: Saturday, March 6 from 3–4 PM PST
Home
Browse
Create
Search
Log in
Sign up
Upgrade to remove ads
Only $2.99/month
Finance Final Exam
STUDY
Flashcards
Learn
Write
Spell
Test
PLAY
Match
Gravity
Terms in this set (45)
Sensitivity Analysis
examines how sensitive a particular NPV calculation is to changes in underlying assumptions
Variable Costs
change as the output changes
Fixed Costs
not dependent on the amount of goods or services produced during the period
Advantages of Sensitivity Analysis
reduces the false sense of security; shows where more information is needed
Disadvantages of Sensitivity Analysis
increase the false sense of security among manages; treats each variable in isolation when the different variables are likely to be related
Scenario Analysis
a variant of sensitivity analysis; examines a number of different likely scenarios, where each scenario involves a confluence of factors
Break-Even Analysis
determines the sales needed to break even; complement to sensitivity analysis because it sheds light on the severity of incorrect forecasts
Accounting Break-Even Point
[(Fixed Costs + Depreciation)(1-t)] / [(Sales Price - Variable Costs)(1-t)]
Present Value Break-Even Point
[(EAC+(Fixed Costs)(1-t)-(Depreciation)(t)] / [(Sales Price - Variable Costs)(1-t)]
Why is Accounting Break-Even point different from the Financial Break-Even point?
When we use accounting profit as the basis for the break-even calculation, we subtract depreciation. This will not cover the economic opportunity costs laid out for the investment. Depreciation understates the true costs of recovering the initial investment. Companies that break even on an accounting basis are really losing money. They are losing the opportunity cost of the initial investment.
Monte Carlo Simulation
1. Specify the basic model
2. Specify a distribution for each variable in the model
3. The computer draws one outcome
4. Repeat the procedure
5. Calculate NPV
Real Options
Adjustments to expand or abandon. NPV underestimates the true value of a project.
Forecasting Risk
risk that a poor decision is made because of errors in projected cash flow; danger is greatest with a new product because the cash flows are harder to predict
Difference between Sensitivity Analysis and Scenarios Analysis
With a sensitivity analysis, one variable is examined over a broad range of values. With a scenario analysis, all variables are examined for a limited range of values
Marginal Revenue and Costs
Accepting a project with marginal revenue in excess of its marginal costs clearly acts to increase operating cash flow.
Order of Break-Even Analysis
The project will reach the cash break-even first, accounting break-even second, and financial break-even last if the project has an initial investment and sales after.
Why does traditional NPV analysis tend to underestimate the true value of a capital budgeting project?
Traditional NPV analysis is too conservative because it ignores profitable options such as the ability to expand if it is profitable or the ability to abandon if it is not profitable. The option to alter a project when it has already been accepted has a value, which increase the net present value.
How does sensitivity analysis interact with break-even analysis
Sensitivity analysis can determine how the financial break-even point changes when some factors change
What is the sensitivity of NPV to changes in the sales figure?
The change in NPV sold will always be the same for any number of sales we choose.
What is the sensitivity of OCF to changes in the variable cost figure?
We will get the same ratio of OCF to a one dollar change in variable cost no matter what variable cost we choose.
Forms of return of Stock
Dividends to shareholders is the income component of your return. Capital gain or capital loss is the second component of your return.
Total Dollar Return
Dividend Income + Capital Gain/Loss
Total Cash if stock is sold
Initial Investment + Total dollar Return
Should you still consider the capital gain as part of your return if you don't sell it at year end?
Yes, you can sell the stock at year-end and immediately buy it back. You would not lose your return when you buy it back. You would be in exactly the same position as if you had not sold the stock.
Dividend Yield
Div (t+1) / P (t)
Capital Gain/Loss
[P (t+1) - P (t)] / P (t)
R (t+1)
Dividend Yield + Capital Gain/Loss
R (t)
(1+R1) X (1+R2) X (1+R3) ...
Holding Period Return
The total return. Includes the return from reinvesting the dividends every year.
Frequency Distribution
histogram of numbers
Risk Premium
The difference between risky returns and risk-free returns is called the excess return on the risky asset.
Variance
1/T-1 [(R1-R)SQ + (R2-R)SQ + (R3-R)SQ]
Sharpe Ratio
Risk Premium of the Asset / Standard Deviation
Standard Error
SD/sq(the number of observations)
Helps with the issue of how much confidence we can have in our historical average.
Geometric Average Return
[(1+R1) x (1+R2) x (1+R3]^[1/t] - 1
Geometric average will always be smaller as long as the returns are not all identical; The geometric average returns tells you what you actually earned per year on average, compounded annually.
Arithmetic Average Return
Tells you what you earned in a typical year.
Blume's Formula
R(T) = (T-1)/(N-1) X Geometric Average + (N-T)/(N-1) X Arithmetic Average
Ex-ante Return
The return we expect to get from a project, and on which we base our decisions.
Ex-post Return
The return we actually end up getting from a project.
Cov (RA,RB)
(RA - E(RA)) x (RB - E(RB)) = ADD UP ALL
Corr(RA,RB)
Cov (RA,RB)/ (St DevA X St DevB)
Total Return
Expected Return + Unexpected Return
Unexpected Return
Systematic and Unsystematic
Beta
Cov (Ri, Rm) / var Rm
E(R)
Risk Free Rate + Beta of Security X Difference between expected return on market and risk free rate. <or risk premium
YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE...
EZ Quiz #3
33 terms
Finance 325 - Final - Whidbee
70 terms
Business Finance Exam #3
87 terms
FIN 3403 Exam 3 FSU Gunter
97 terms
OTHER QUIZLET SETS
Experimental Wangs Test 3
26 terms
MKG 350 CH 12 Vocab
21 terms
Fin Final
52 terms
scientific method vocab
17 terms