Home
Subjects
Create
Search
Log in
Sign up
Upgrade to remove ads
Only $2.99/month
Supply Chain NCSU (Forecasting Lecture,Lecture 8)
STUDY
Flashcards
Learn
Write
Spell
Test
PLAY
Match
Gravity
Terms in this set (21)
Forecast
An estimate of the future level of some variable.
Forecasting Law 1:
Forecasts are almost always wrong (however are still useful)
Forecasting Law 2:
Forecasts for the near term tend to be more accurate
Forecasting Law 3
Forecasts for groups of products or services tend to be more accurate
Forecasting Law 4
Forecasts are no substitute for calculated values (Future Chapter or MRP)
Qualitative Methods
Used when situation is vague and data are scarce, not available, or irrelevant.
Involves intuition, or informed opinion.
Example- forecasting sales to a new market
Quantitative Methods
Used when situation is 'stable' with measurable, historical data to generate forecasts.
Heavy use of math models-time series and causal.
Example- forecasting sales of a mature product.
Market Surveys
Structured Questionnaires
Panel Consensus
Joint discussion by experts
Delphi
Experts working individually, then shared among group and repeated until consensus is reached.
Life Cycle Analogy
identify demand levels for 4 stages of life cycle-use demand of similar products to model new product demand
Build-Up
Individual markets forecast aggregated.
Time Series
Series of observations arranged in chronological order
Moving Average Models
Takes an average of actual demand from the past periods to forecast the next period.
Weighted Moving Average
takes a weighted average of actual demand from the past periods to forecast the next period.
Just those weeks added up divided by that number of weeks
Exponential Smoothing
sophisticated weight averaging model.
Needs only three numbers:
Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
Same as exponential smoothing PLUS a Trend adjustment factor
Simple Linear Regression
Time series OR causal model, assumes a linear relationship, y=a+b(x)
Forecast Error
Demand for time period i-forecast for time period i
Mean Forecast Error (MFE)
Measures the bias of a forecast model, or the propensity of a model to under- or over-forecast
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Tracks the average size of the errors, regardless of direction.
YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE...
Chapter 9 SCM 304
20 terms
BUS 355: CH 9: Forecasting
27 terms
Chapter 9: Forecasting
22 terms
scm 301 chp 9
23 terms
OTHER SETS BY THIS CREATOR
Option Strategies and their function/purpose
5 terms
Options Strategies and their Ingredients
5 terms
Brand
20 terms
Introduction to Marketing
5 terms