Upgrade to remove ads
Supply Chain NCSU (Forecasting Lecture,Lecture 8)
Terms in this set (21)
An estimate of the future level of some variable.
Forecasting Law 1:
Forecasts are almost always wrong (however are still useful)
Forecasting Law 2:
Forecasts for the near term tend to be more accurate
Forecasting Law 3
Forecasts for groups of products or services tend to be more accurate
Forecasting Law 4
Forecasts are no substitute for calculated values (Future Chapter or MRP)
Used when situation is vague and data are scarce, not available, or irrelevant.
Involves intuition, or informed opinion.
Example- forecasting sales to a new market
Used when situation is 'stable' with measurable, historical data to generate forecasts.
Heavy use of math models-time series and causal.
Example- forecasting sales of a mature product.
Joint discussion by experts
Experts working individually, then shared among group and repeated until consensus is reached.
Life Cycle Analogy
identify demand levels for 4 stages of life cycle-use demand of similar products to model new product demand
Individual markets forecast aggregated.
Series of observations arranged in chronological order
Moving Average Models
Takes an average of actual demand from the past periods to forecast the next period.
Weighted Moving Average
takes a weighted average of actual demand from the past periods to forecast the next period.
Just those weeks added up divided by that number of weeks
sophisticated weight averaging model.
Needs only three numbers:
Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
Same as exponential smoothing PLUS a Trend adjustment factor
Simple Linear Regression
Time series OR causal model, assumes a linear relationship, y=a+b(x)
Demand for time period i-forecast for time period i
Mean Forecast Error (MFE)
Measures the bias of a forecast model, or the propensity of a model to under- or over-forecast
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Tracks the average size of the errors, regardless of direction.
YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE...
Chapter 9 SCM 304
BUS 355: CH 9: Forecasting
Chapter 9: Forecasting
scm 301 chp 9
OTHER SETS BY THIS CREATOR
Option Strategies and their function/purpose
Options Strategies and their Ingredients
Introduction to Marketing