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Chapter 9: Forecasting
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Terms in this set (22)
Forecast
an estimate of the future level of some variable. Common variables that are forecasted include demand levels, supply levels, and prices
Quantitative Forecasting Models
forecasting models that use measurable, historical data to generate forecasts. These can be divided into two major types: time series models and casual models
Qualitative Forecasting Techniques
forecasting techniques based on intuition or informed option. These techniques are used when data are scarce, not available, or irrelevant
Market Survey
a structured questionnaire submitted to potential customers, often to gauge potential demand
Panel Consensus Forecasting
a qualitative forecasting technique that brings experts together to jointly discuss and develop a forecast
Delphi Method
a qualitative forecasting technique in which experts work individually to develop forecasts. The individual forecasts are shared among the group, and then each participant is allowed to modify his or her forecast based on information from the other experts. This process is repeated until consensus is reached
Life Cycle Analogy Method
a qualitative forecasting technique that attempts to identify the time frames and demand levels for the introduction, growth, maturity, and decline life cycle stages of a new product or service
Build-up Forecast
a qualitative forecasting technique in which individuals familiar with specific market segments estimate the demand within these segments. These individual forecasts are then added up to get an overall forecast
Time Series
a series of observations arranged in chronological order
Time Series Forecasting Model
a quantitative forecasting model that uses a time series to develop forecasts. With this, the chronology of the observations and their values are important in developing forecasts
Randomness
in the context of forecasting, unpredictable movement from one time period to the next
Trend
long-term movement up or down in a time series
Seasonality
a repeated pattern of spikes or drops in a time series associated with certain times of the year
Moving Average Model
a time series forecasting model that drives a forecast by taking an average of recent demand values
Smoothing Model
another name for a moving average model. The name refers to the fact that using averages to generate forecasts results in forecasts that are less susceptible to random fluctuations in demand
Weighted Moving Average Model
a form of the moving average model that allows the actual weights applied to past observations to differ
Exponential Smoothing Model
a special form of the moving average model in which the forecast for the next period is calculated as the weighted average of the current period's actual value and forecast
Adjusted Exponential Smoothing Model
an expanded version of the exponential smoothing model that includes a trend adjustment factor
Linear Regression
a statistical technique that expresses a forecast variable as a linear function of some independent variable. This can be used to develop both time series and casual forecasting models
Casual Forecasting Model
a class of quantitative forecasting models in which the forecast is modeled as a function of something other than time
Multiple Regression
a generalized form of linear regression that allows for more than one independent variable
Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR)
a set of business processes, backed up by information technology, in which members agree to mutual business objectives and measures, develop joint sales and operational plans, and collaborate electronically to generate and update sales forecasts and replenishment plans
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