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1) Birth rates in several MEDCs have fallen below death rates (Germany, Sweden). This has caused, for the first time, a population decline which suggests that perhaps the model should have a fifth stage added to it.
2) The model assumes that in time all countries pass through the same four stages. It now seems unlikely, however, that many LEDCs, especially in Africa, will ever become industrialised.
3) The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in Stage 2 was the consequence of industrialisation. Initially, the death rate in many British cities rose, due to the insanitary conditions which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it only began to fall after advances were made in medicine. The delayed fall in the death rate in many developing countries has been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities. In many countries, the fall in the birth rate in Stage 3 has been less rapid than the model suggests due to religious and/or political opposition to birth control (Brazil), whereas the fall was much more rapid, and came earlier, in China following the government-introduced 'onechild' policy.
The timescale of the model, especially in several South-east Asian countries such as Hong Kong and Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a much faster rate than did the early industrialised countries.
4) Countries that grew as a consequence of emigration from Europe (USA, Canada, Australia) did not pass through the early stages of the model. Stage 1) in medieval times both CBR and CDR were high.
-The BR was generally a bit higher, resulting in a slow rate of natural increase (35 per 1000)
-while BR remained at relatively stable level, DR was fluctuating (e.g. bubonic plague killed 1/3 of the population)
-these conditions of high fertility and high mortality persisted until about 1740
Stage 2)
-period of rapid urbanisation
-urgent need for improvements in public health
-factory owners realised unhealthy workforce had a huge impact on efficiency
-clean piped water and installation of sewerage systems, personal and domestic cleanliness brought in- diarrhoea diseases and typhus fall rapidly
-life was better in countryside (employment, larger disposable income, more food, wider range of products)
-infant mortality fell from 200 per 1000 in 1770 to 100 per 1000 in 1870
-diseases diminished (e.g. scarlet fever much reduced impact from 18th century to 19th century)
-from 1850 mortality from tuberculosis began to fall
-combination of better nutrition and general improvements in health brought about by 'Public Health Acts of 1848 and 1869'
-medicine discoveries (such as vaccination against small pox)
-stage ended in 1875
Stage 3)
-continued decline of death rate
-downturn in birth rate
-medical science advancements (able to offer specifically effective drugs)
-1906 - increasing attention to maternity, child welfare, school health
-more measures to improve public health
-further gains in nutrition
-decline in fertility (due to more knowledge about contraception)
-desire for smaller families came about (cuz decline in DR is for sure, cost of children was higher in urban areas)
Stage 4)
-BR fell from 30.5/1000 in 1890 to 17/1000 by 1930
-by 1940, BR 14.5/1000 (*influenced by outbreak of war the previous year)
-the higher figures in BR at the end are due to the 'post-war baby boom'
-however by 1980 BR went back down to 14/1000 (remaining very close to that figure ever since) -life expectancy is higher in MEDCs than in LEDCs.
-In Sub Saharan Africa, the life expectancy is the lowest (around 41.4 - 50.8 years).
-It is slightly higher (57.9- 71.6 years) in all of Asia, South America , and Central America (Honduras, Nicaragua, etc.).
-Life expectancy is highest (71.7 - 81.5+ years) in Northern America (USA, Canada), South Southern America (Chile, Argentina), Oceania (Australia, New Zealand), Western Europe, and Japan. previous Chinese governments had encouraged people to have a lot of children to increase workforce
-then in the early 1970's a third family planning campaign was introduced called 'Late, Sparse, Few'
-the government was worried about it being too weak
THEN....
-the one child policy was established in 1979
-each couple is allowed only one child
-in urban areas most families have only one child, and the growing middle classes no longer discriminate so much against daughters
-the countryside remains traditionally focused on male heirs
-in most provincial rural areas, couples can have two children without penalties
-restricted to ethnic Han Chinese living in urban areas; citizens living in rural areas and minorities living anywhere in China are not subject to the law
-if a couple is composed of 2 people without siblings, then they may have two children of their own
-policy caused a disdain for female infants: abortion, neglect, abandonment and even infanticide
benefits included;
-increased access to education for all
-childcare and healthcare offered to families that followed this rule
-those who had more than one child didn't receive these benefits and were fined
-policy was resisted in rural areas - traditional to have large families
-in urban areas enforced strictly - but harder to control rural areas
-it is claimed that some woman were forced to have an abortion or were forcibly sterilised
-many girls are either killed or end up homeless because of a preference for boys
Outcomes:
-The most dramatic decrease in the fertility rate, from 5.9 to 2.9, occurred between 1970 and 1979.
-caused the ratio of 114 males for every 100 females in the 0-4 year age group
-CBR has fallen- now 0.7 percent
-in 2000 it was reported that 90% of foetuses aborted in china were female
-gender balance in china has become distorted
-it is thought that men outnumbers women by more than 60 million
The policy stopped on January 1st 2016...
now..
-couples can apply to have a second child is their first child is a girl, or if both parents are themselves only-children
-still has a very large population and new problems are occurring;
-falling birth rate - leading to a rise in the relative number of elderly people
-fewer people of working age to support the growing number of elderly dependents
-in the future china could have an ageing population
Positive effects:
-Slowed down population growth. (the population would be 1.5 billion in 2001 rather than 2005.)
-More physical "space" in country.
Negative Effects:
-4:2:1 dependency ratio. This means the "1" is supporting 6 people, 4 grandparents and 2 parents. This is an extremely heavy burden placed onto the child and may struggle economically.
-High proportions of unmarried men due to a simple answer, there is a lack of women. 118 boys to 100 girls.
Criticisms:
-Strict, harsh penalties on people with more than one child. Naturally, this is extremely unfair on the parents accord. They may have needed the extra child to help them to survive on an economic principal.
-Some "human rights activists" think its not very humane to restrict the number of children per family. number of children under the age 5 dying per 1000 live infants
Positives:
-indicates very poor countries
-when the number is high it is a MDG or health measurement indicator, (cuz you see how well off the country is, if a baby dies before it reaches 1 year old, you know the country is in bad health and care.)
-Reflects household income, nutrition, maternal age, education, housing condition, sanitation, etc.
Negatives:
-does not take diseases into consideration
-may be unreliable if collected by household survey
-national birth and death registration systems may also be unreliable
IMR is a good indicator of development...
-the poorest LECDs
-the causes of death are often preventable
-where water supply, sanitation, housing, healthcare and nutrition are adequate, IMRs are low -Large country in Western Africa - population of 174 million.
-Stuffed full of resources.
-Part of the top 10 oil producers in the world
-Under used, fertile land.
-8th highest population in the world, highest population in Africa.
-Fast Growing economy due to 43% of population being youthful.
-In 2003 Nigerians made up the happiest country in the world (GNH)
-Nigeria is considered a country with a distinct "stylish" culture.
-Theres loads of shops and other such amenities that cater towards the rich part of the population.
-Also, the whole culture in Nigeria is great, everyone loves football for a start.
-11,000 years of history of people living in this country.
-Lagos is Nigeria's largest city but not its capital!
-Capital is Abuja with a population of 780,000 people.
-Lagos is also the centre of Economic Activity and houses 15 million people.
-In the South is where the Niger River Delta is found.
-Main City: Port Harcourt.
-High amount of oil reserves down south; therefore more wealth available.
DISPARITIES:
-The whole country is one big disparity, The North and South have drastically different economic situations.
Place of residence:
-Poor quality schools and hospitals in the North
-Percentage of rural population is higher in the North
-Lack of basic amenities in rural areas.
-Regional differences
-47% rural population in Nigeria.
-HDI is 0.471
Land tenure:
-Land = wealth
-Small holdings cannot generate surpluses (people farm at subsistence levels especially)
-Government owns all the land and distributes to all its favorites leaving 24.4 million homeless in all of Nigeria.
Parents education:
-Schooling is free but not always compulsory, trying to focus on getting primary education for everyone (83% total attendance)
Ethnicity:
-510 languages spoken
-3 major groups compete for power
-Hausa Fulani 29% in the North (land locked so no oil)
-Yoruba 21% - South
-Igbo 18% - South
-Christianity vs Islam disputes
-North inhabited by Muslims (Hausa Fulani), they feel marginalized.
-South inhabited by Christians (Igbo, Yoruba) who access to oil fields.
-Certain ethnic groups are confined to certain jobs- limits opportunities for some.
Employment:
-Employment for rural to urban migrants, therefore Lagos is more attractive.
-24% unemployment Nigeria
-Many migrants forced to beg, work odd jobs or become part of the informal sector
-Many children have to work to help their parents make a living - meaning they miss out on an education and they contribute to sweatshop labor
-No unemployment benefit
Income:
-Despite its oil (10th largest world reserve) and large population, Nigeria remains desperately poor.
-70% lives below the poverty line
-Nigeria also has a wealthy and educated elite living in Lagos. -Located in Africa, in the North West.
-Its population is currently around 3.89 million
-30% Arab (Berber and Bidane/Moors)
-30% Non-Arabized: Haratin, Serer, Soninke, Bambara, Toucouleur, Fula
-40% Mixed
Level of Development:
Water:
-Low.
-Most of the country's agriculture depends on rainfall which is lacking in the predominant desert areas and unpredictable rainfall patterns hugely influence agricultural production from year to year.
HDI ranking:
-In 2007 the HDI ranked Mauritania at #137 out of the 177 country census.
Food Crisis:
-2008 - Malnutrition at 12.6% of the overall population and exceeding 15% in some regions.
-A 2009 food survey shows that 138,000 people in the country are 'severely food insecure' with 246,000 being 'moderately food insecure'.
Rural to Urban Migration:
-More than 60% of the population live in urban areas.
Export Dependency:
-Exports of Mauritania are limited to iron ore and fish.
-Iron accounts for 50% of total exports by value.
-This is risky due to the low market price of iron ore and depletion of oil reserves.
-Fishing is also problematic due to overfishing by foreign boats.
Lack of Port Infrastructure:
-There is no road link between the main port of export, Nouadhibou, and the capital, Nouakchott.
-The development of the West Coast pan-African highway and deepwater port near Nouakchott will decrease the limitations of Nouadhibou.
Oil Poor:
-This is dependant on fluctuating market price for oil imports.
-Discovery of oil off the coast in mid-2001 may solve this problem.
Importation of Food:
-The periodical need to import food is a major obstacle to achieve trade balance.
-High rate of rural to urban migration has increased the number of people dependant on others to produce food.
-Acute periods of drought, especially in the 1970s and 1980s, have increased the importation.
-Mauritania is not always self-sufficient with less expensive imported goods, eg. rice. Livestock rearing accounts for 15% of the GDP with there being more goats than people and more than a million camels.
*Economy of this nation is based on Agriculture. They export fish, copper and iron ore.
Aid from China:T hey gave an aid package to Mauritania -->USD$3.3 million in 2006 -One of the world's largest pipeline system (1,230 km)
-It crosses 3 mountain ranges and over 800 rivers/streams
-91,500 american jobs created by OCS-related development in Alaska
-50% increase in known US oil reserves
-Built between 1974 and 1977 after the 1973 oil crisis caused a sharp rise in oil prices in the US
-Extracting Oil in a fragile environment: cold, isolated, big, mountainous, freeze/thaw, geologically unstable (earthquakes, avalanches)
Construction:
-By-passes for animal crossings, underground pipes (thaw-stable soils), insulated and elevated (thaw-unstable soils), zig-zag above ground for expansion or contraction from temp change and movement from earthquakes, hi-tech pipes and casings to preserve existing temperatures
Oil companies:
-Discovered oil at Prudhoe Bay (1968), constructed pipeline (completed 1977) with $8 billion private money.
Environmental Groups:
-Tried to block pipeline (1970), Contract with Pipeline Company to advise and manage (1990)
Indigenous Americans:
-Lawsuit (1971) over lack of involvement
Government:
-Gave money and land to indigenous Americans in return for control over pipeline. Legislation for indigenous americans (1971) and pollution (1990).
Social Effects:
-Boomtowns: Valdez, Fairbanks, Anchorage.
Economic Effects:
-2000 contractors and subcontractors and 70,000 workers, oil supplied to USA.
Environmental effects:
-"America's last wilderness", Pipeline + road (for construction, operation and maintenance), Exxon Valdez oil spill (1989), disruption to local ecosystems, visual pollution, ground heating for heavy oil. -Wars have been started by countries being aggressive to others (think Gulf War, Americans went in because of the disputes with oil.)
-OPEC: Stands for the The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi, Venezuela, Qatar, Indo, Libya, UAE, Algeria, Nigeria, Ecuador, Gabon are all members
Established to counter oil price cuts by USA and EU companies.
-By agreeing to restrict supply, member countries were able to influence oil prices.
-Gave power to member countries and other countries must keep good relationships.
-Means that there must be political stability in the Middle East. Nepal:
-Landlocked, full of mountains and valleys, many rivers.
-One of the 20 poorest countries in the world.
-30.4 million overall population
-84% rural population
-80% of economy is supported by agriculture
-10% access to the electricity grid
-2003: BR: 32, DR: 10
-2013: BR: 21.5, DR: 6.7
-33% of population are youthful dependents (below age of 15)
-GDP ppp $1500 USD
-Lowest asean energy use
-29% forest cover
-22L water needed a day
-20% income spent on fuel
Problems with Fuelwood:
-Demand is rapidly increasing (population growth and tourism)
-Few alternatives, especially in rural areas
-Lack of money to build infrastructure
-RAPID deforestation (causes erosion, flooding, loss of habitats, rising river levels)
STRATEGIES:
Strategy 1: Substitute with solar power, briquettes
-Parabolic solar power cookers (completely natural replacing firewood)
Imported German material is expensive.
-Briquette stove made out of forest/industrial/domestic waste
Briquettes just as efficient as fuelwood, inexpensive, also cleaning up waste, easy to use
-Foundation of Sustainable Technology (FoST) initiative:
Designs these technologies
Conducts interactive training workshops
Strategy 2: Substitute with Micro-Hydro in Ghandruk, Nepal
-Small, locally built schemes designed to produce small amounts of energy, by Nepali engineers in the 1970's.
-Practical Action funded, a UK based energy production.
-Ghandruk milling dam
-15 minutes instead of 15 hours grinding for 3 days supply of corn
-0 hours collecting fuelwood
More leisure/study time for women/children
Reduction in fire/smoke so less respiratory diseases
-Diver water from a river that feeds back
-Only a 2m drop is required for subsistence production
-Community owned and operated
-Decentralised, sustainable energy
-Suitable for small areas • Age: The very young and the very old are most vulnerable to disease, malnourishment and natural disasters and therefore more likely to have a higher incidence of death.
• Sex: In nearly every country, women live longer than men (usually 5-10 years longer). This is not fully understood, but it is believed to be a combination of biological and lifestyle reasons. Women tend to suffer cardiovascular disease later in life and men tend to cause more damage to themselves through drinking and smoking.
• Residence: The location/country that you are born in plays a massive role in your life expectancy. If you are born into a developed, literate and peaceful country e.g. Japan, your life expectancy is going to be high. However, if you are born into a poor, drought and famine-ridden country that is at war e.g. Somalia then your life expectancy is going to be low.
• Occupation: Some jobs are more physically or mentally demanding than others and can therefore affect people's health. A job that keeps people active may prolong health, but if it is active and dangerous like mining, it might shorten life. Some jobs like teaching are said to be stressful and may reduce life expectancy.
• Nourishment: If you have a shortage of food (undernourished) you are more vulnerable to disease. If whole countries suffer from famine a country's death rate may dramatically increase - again it will normally be the old and young affected first. Undernourishment is not the only problem; malnourishment can also increase death rates. This is when people are eating a bad diet that may contain too much salt and/or fat, e.g. obesity epidemic in Europe & North America.
• Accommodation: The quality of your house can play a big factor in your life expectancy. If you live in an informal settlement you are more vulnerable to disease, natural disasters and sometimes crime. However, if you live in a modern structure you will probably enjoy running water, electricity mains and protection from the weather, therefore helping you remain healthy.
• Literacy: Your ability to read and write can have a massive influence on your health and life expectancy. Not only does it give you better job prospects, but also allows you to know how to care for yourself i.e. what to eat and what to do if you are ill. Most of Indonesia's 200 million people live on Java, Bali, Lombok and Madura, which make up the densely-populated core area. Java has 60% of the country's population in 7% of its area and it is here that the capital, Jakarta, is found. The four main islands all have fertile, volcanic soils that are ideal for intensive, subsistence, and rice cultivation.
Transmigration i.e. the forced movement of people by the government from the densely populated core to the outlying islands, was first started one hundred years ago, in colonial times, by the Dutch authorities and has continued throughout the century. Its main aims have been:
• to encourage a more balanced distribution of population within the country.
• to reduce population pressure in the core by moving people to the peripheral islands.
• to improve living standards for the migrants
Between 1900 and the country's independence in 1949 over half a million people were moved. Despite various governments since then setting quite high targets only a further two million people have been moved.
The scheme offers:
• free transport to the new area.
• free land allocation of two hectares.
• free housing in the new area.
• free equipment, fertilisers etc. and enough food to keep the family going until the first harvest.
There have been several issues associated with transmigration in recent years:
• It is very costly and over £200 million has been loaned by the World Bank so far to help with the scheme. Many people feel that its limited success does not justify this spending. Its impact on Indonesia's population problems has been minimal. In the 1980s, Java's population increased by 18% in spite of out-movements. In 1995 the country's population was growing by 3.2 million per year! This is more than the entire number of people who had moved out from the core in the whole of the transmigration movement. Also, up to 20% of the migrants have since returned home because of problems in the new areas.
• Many people are alarmed at the effects on the environment. Over 120 million hectares of Tropical Rainforest have been felled to create land for the new settlers. Soil erosion and soil exhaustion also occurred once the delicate balance of the Tropical Rainforest ecosystem has been disturbed.
• There have been conflicts between the immigrants and the local residents because:
(i) Traditional farmers are worried that the incomers will take over their area and destroy their way of life. They also complain that the new settlers are given more financial help than they receive.
(ii) Local shifting cultivators have had to move as the newcomers are using their land.
However, transmigration has brought some advantages.
• Improved infrastructure on the peripheral islands, e.g. better roads, more schools and health facilities, although in many areas they are still not adequate for the numbers of people who actually live there.
• People from the core who had no land or jobs now have a future in their new homes.
• Some spontaneous migration to the outer islands has been stimulated. In the future, transmigration policy will probably focus on providing rural infrastructure to attract people and encourage migration and less on large scale organised schemes. It may be better for the country to try to solve the problems linked with its rapid population growth by more family planning programmes, intensifying agricultural production, developing the country's plentiful oil and gas reserves and industries, rather than by organised transmigration. • Actual flows (Trade, FDI, portfolio, income payments)
• Restrictions (import barriers, tariff rate, taxes on trade, capital account restrictions)
Political globalisation • Embassies in the country
• Membership in international organisations
• Participation in UN Security Council missions
• International treaties
Social globalisation • Personal contact (telephone traffic, transfers, international tourism, foreign population, international letters)
• Information flows (internet users, televisions, trade in newspapers)
• Cultural proximity (McDonald restaurants, IKEA stores, trade in books) 