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Population Human Geog
Terms in this set (184)
Measures of Fertility
1. Crude Birth Rate (Live Births per 1000). Niger: 49, HK: 15
2. Total Fertility Rate
3. General Fertility Rate (Number of live births per 1000 women of normal reproductive age in a year)
Total Fertility Rate
Average number of children born to a woman during her fecundity (15-49) years.
Nigeria: 5.6. Thai: 1.41. Germany: 1.38
Trends in Fertility (LDCs)
Fertility Decline: Began around 1970s, due to Cultural Factors (TFR fall without prompting).
Thailand: 4.6 to 1.41 in 30 years.
Botswana: 6.2 to 2.7 from 1980 to 2013.
Thailand TFR ∆
4.6 to 1.41 in 30 years
Botswana TFR ∆
6.2 to 2.7 from 1980 to 2013
Trends in Fertility (DCs)
Fertility Decline triggered by socio-eonomic conditions (fell after mortality rate). Transition from the agrarian to industrial society + Availability of contraception.
Europe DC TFR Statistics
Very low: 1.2 in Portugal, Poland
Some slight increase recently: 1.9 in Russia, 1.6 in Luxembourg, both up from 1.5 within the space of 3 years
Factors Affecting Fertility
Biological Factors Affecting Fertility
- Degree to which women in fecundity age-range can be exposed to conception. World average age of marriage has increased (21 to 28 in the last 30 years). But some: Nigeria- 18 years.
Duration of Breastfeeding
- Delays onset of ovulation and menstruation post-birth. Lengthens period of natural infertility.
Nigeria: Short breastfeeding period --> Only 13% breastfeed (fall from 17%). High CBR (5.6 in 2013)
- Disrupts the normal course of gestation
1975 Hungary: 2.35 to 1.75 in 1980
1979 China: 5.8 to 2.1 in 12 years
More common in LDCs: 29/1000 vs 24/1000
Patterns of Sex Activity
- Affects probability of conceiving amongst women.
- Frequency of sex and attitudes towards sex.
- Factors causing reduced sex activity: Spousal separation, religious considerations.
- Post partum abstinence (Increasing in certain regions of Africa (West), but determines 'turnover' of babies)
- Inability to conceive a child. Increased 3% at age 20 due to increased stress.
- Expensive to treat: $20000 for one cycle (chromosomal in nature)
- Both natural and pathological.
- However, treatments are getting better: 44.7% success rate for a woman
Use of Contraception.
- Modern advancements. Introduction of the Pill in 1960s affordable for LDCs
LINK FROM PERCENTAGE OF WOMAN ON MODERN CONTRACEPTION AND TFR: KOREA: 70% CONTRACEPTION ADOPTION --> 1.3 TFR. NIGER: 6% --> 7.9
Socio-Economic Factors affecting Fertility
Socio-Economic Value of Children
- Some societies view children as important 'assets' due to their high contributions at a young age. e.g. 1970s Indonesia (TFR 5.47) => Children provide other sources of wealth flows.
Level of Women
- Female Education: Spain has 100% female education, TFR 1.3, vs Burkina Faso has 33% female education, TFR 5.69
- Participation in the workforce and formal economy. If limited access to paid employment, TFR will be higher as children are viewed as a liability for women who wish to enter the job market. Japan's involvement of women in ageing sector/silver industries: 63% of women in Japan in healthcare sectors; TFR 1.4
TFR SPAIN + % FEMALE EDU
TFR BURKINA FASO + % FEMALE EDU
TFR JAPAN + % OF WOMEN IN HEALTHCARE
TFR INDONESIA 1970S
PRO-NATAL POLICIES (Countries)
ANTI-NATAL POLICIES (Countries)
France Pro-Natal Policy
1.59 EU TFR, vs 2.00 in France.
Anti-natal policy started in Napoleonic times due to inheritance laws, with many not wanting land to be fragmented.
High employment of women at 85% . Ageing population could cause 21% of population to be >60 by 2050.
Policy: Carte Familie Nombreuse (Bus cards for family)
1. Free nursery for family of 3 and above by the government.
2. Mothers given 1000 Euros if they stop work and have a third child: Almost minimum wage.
3. Government spends $40 billion a year on family care. As a result, France going to be the largest country in the EU with 75 million by 2050
EU TFR VS FRANCE TFR
1.59 VS 2.00
France Ageing Population Problem
21% of population would be above 60 by 2050
France Projected Population
75 million by 2050
Japan Pro-Natal Policy
TFR 1.41 in 2013
High age of marriage: Women at 29.3, men 30.9 + High employment of women (63% in silver industries)
High abortion rates (9.3/1000 in 2007), and 54% contraceptives adoption.
1. Child Care Family Leave Law: Emphasize work live balance. 8 weeks leave after birth. Limited over time + encouraging flexi-time.
Success: 0.14% increase in last 10 years.
Failure: Population will fall by 25% from 2005 to 2050. 128 million to 95 million
Japan's Ageing Population Problem
11.2% increase in >65 year olds between 2006 to 2011.
Need a nett immigration of 17 million to maintain worker to retiree ratio.
Strain on budget: 27% will be spent by 2025 on social expenditure
Nett Immigration needed Japan
17 million to maintain worker to retiree ratio
Japan Population ∆ from 2005 to 2050
Fall by 25%, 128 million to 95 million
Thailand Anti Natal Policy
Government had to implement anti-natal policy: Lack of infrastructure to support the ageing population.
Policy: Population and Community Development Association (PDA) - One of the few government backed NGOs.
Slogan: Many Children Make you Poor: in line with 95% Buddhist culture. Promote gender equality in rural through family planning specialists. Cops for Rubbers programme. Free vasectomy during public holidays e.g. King's Birthday. Condom-Blowing competitions: Removing the taboos associated with family planning talk.
First country to use DMCA (injectable contraceptive)
6.0 in 1965 to 1.41 in 2012
Growth rate fell from 3.4% to 0.4% upon implementation of policy, with 79.3% contraception adoption rate.
RESULTS of Thailand's Anti-Natal Policy
TFR fell from 6.0 in 1965 to 1.41 in 2012
Growth rate fell from 3.4% to 0.4%
79.3% contraception usage
1970: 5.7 people per household. Now: 3.2
AIDS fell from 2% to 1.09%
Nigeria's Anti-Natal Policy
6.5 in 1970s to 5.6 in 2013 - Not very successful.
Problem: Low contraceptive adoption of only 15% (all methods, including traditional methods like pulling out)
Women exposed to marriage at a very young age - 42% marry before 18 despite the changes in minimum marriage age.
High socio-economic value is placed on children. 15 million children below the age of 14 work.
Short breastfeeding period: 6 month breastfeeding period fell from 17% to 13% in 2013. Natural infertility shortened.
To take over USA as 3rd most populous by 2050. Increase in population density from 173 to 199 from 2000 to 2010. Stagnation of economy as many just tend to children.
Policy: Improve contraceptive usage, education and minimum marrying age of 18. BUT 46.1% marry below age still.
Problem: 75% muslim, belief in big families. Poor rural communications
6.5 in 1965 to 5.6 in 2013
Nigeria population projection
3rd biggest country take over US by 2050
Nigeria Population Density Changes
173 to 199 from 2000 - 2010
46.1% marry below minimum age of 18
Definition of Growth Rate
Number of people added to/subtracted from a population in a year due to natural increase or net migration as a percentage of the previous year
Factors affecting Growth Rate
Birth Rate. Death Rates. FertilIty Rate. Migration. Age structure of population. Basic size of the population
Composition of population as determined by number of proportion of males and females in each category
Dependency Ratio Definition
Ratio of economically dependent (<15 or >65) to the working age (15-64)
Formula: Dependents/economically active x100
Measures of Growth
Natural Change (Raw Numbers): Net change in population of an area due to the balance of births and deaths only (no migration)
Rate of Natural Increase: CBR - CDR = RNI, illustrated per 1000 of population
Current Population Trends (Growth Rates)
Differential Growth Rates: Higher in LDC;.
○ Highest rate of world population growth of 2.04% occurred in late 1980s
■ Current annual increase is 78 million, 95% of this lives in LDCs
■ 80% of the world living in LDCs, by 2050 → 90%
Current Population trends (Increased Life Expectancy)
66 years on average, increased by 20 years since 1950
Rising median age: 23.5 in 1960 to 28.4 in 2015
Ageing Population also caused by slower birth rates.
More than 50% of coupled in LDCs use contraceptives
Mortality Rates Trend
Decline started in Sweden in the 18th century, Britain in the 19th century
Variations in Mortality Rates
Global variations in mortality is smaller than the fertility variations. Mortality Rates mostly due to IMR
Spatial Variations: 11/1000 in 2013 in Africa vs 7/1000 in Asia
BUT Regional Variations: Swaziland: 14/1000, vs Algeria 5/1000 in 2013
Indicators of Mortality
Crude Death Rate: Number of deaths per 1000 of population (distorted by age structure)
Standardised Death Rate: Indicates where the CDR will be if the age-sex structure is standardised to another population that is used for comparison.
Age-Specific Mortality Rates e.g. IMR, CMR
CMR: Number of deaths <5 per 1000 of the sample group (?). IMR: <1
MMR (/100k): Deaths due to pregnancy related issues. SG:3, Malawai 1100/100 000
Life Expectancy @ Birth:
Average number of years that would be lived by a group of people, assuming that age-specific mortality rates that year are maintained throughout the life history of the group. BUT: Difficult to calculate, derived from national life trends. Quite useful in comparison - Calculate % of population that live past a certain age
Physicians per 1000:
Indicator of the level of education. Availability and distribution of health care. Singapore: 2/1000. Sub-Saharan: <0.1
Factors Affecting Mortality
1. Medical Technology
2. Public Health Measures
3. Socio-Economic Changes
5. Political Factors
6. Environmental Factors
7. Demographic Factors
Availability of certain technologies and information. E.G. Thermal scanners during SARS allow SG to contain disease in 3 months.
1. Sanitation: Eliminates environmental conditions favourable for spread of diseases. 4900 deaths a day due to diarrhoea. Solution: Purification of water supplies + sewage disposal. e.g. cholera heavily reduced when previously rampant in 1970 Africa. UNICEF provides BHUTAN with a clean water pipe. Education: Putting salt water tablets to help kill bacteria and add electrolytes.
2. Immunization: 1990s - Vaccines for TB, Tetanus: $1/child in LDCs, averted 2 million deaths. 1967: Immunization handle with small pox, which initially threatened 60% of the world population. Measles deaths drop by 40% from 1999 to 2003 due to vaccines. Test vaccines for Ebloa have shown 100% sample success rate. Future: Reducing liver cancer, given to infants in 77% of the WHO member states
Deaths per day due to diarrhea
Measles deaths change
40% in 1999 to 2003
60% of population initially, 1967 eradicated
Socio-economic Measures affecting mortality
Improvements in living standards and hygiene standards. Japan: 83.10 LE due to culture of sanitizing self before visiting others.
Afghanistan: CDR 8: Low average age of marriage = Prostititution.
Initial fall in CDR in IR Africa - Increased in wages
Political factors affecting Mortality
Rwanda Genocide estimated 1 million
WW2 estimated 60 million deaths.
Afghan war + war on terror: 360000 die due to indirect war reasons
Definition of Epidemic
Rapid spread of disease in a specific area or among a certain people group
Epidemic occurring over a wide geographic area, affecting a large number of people
Constant presence of disease/infectious agent in a certain geographic area or population group
Epidemic affecting Mortality
Ebola: Death in 50-90% of clinically ill cases
1976: Sudan - 151 deaths in 5 months
August 2014: 5000 deaths in West Africa (Sierra Leone, Liberia)
AIDS: 1400 people a day die from aids, 20 million already dead. Sierra Leone: 3100 deaths in 2013. Not equally distributed; 95% in LDCs, 2/3 of AIDS cases in Sub-Saharan Africa (LE 49, may drop further to 35).
38 countries will be 14% smaller by 2025 than without AIDS cases. E.G. Botswana: Lose 17% of workforce due to AIDS (Wasted - GDP is 7x average African country). AIDS prevalence between 15-49 is almost 25%.
West Africa August 2014: 5000
Distribution of AIDS
95% in LDCs, 2/3 of AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa. LE is 49, may drop to 35
Effects of AIDS (SSA and Botswana)
38 countries will be 14% smaller by 2025 than without AIDS cases. Botswana lose 17% of workforce.
Demographic Factors affecting Mortality
Blacks in USA have statistically lower Life Expectancies vs Whites in USA (71 vs 76 for white men)
Men also at risk of certain diseases like coronary heart disease. Risk of death increases as age increases.
Environmental Factors affecting Mortality
Droughts: 10000 dead in heatwave in France '03 (40degC)
Climatic Hazards: 1500 die in Hurricane Katrina, 138000 in Nargis. Indian Ocean Tsunami killed 250000
Pollution Incidents: Minamata Disease in Japan killed 2200 in the 1930s due to toxins in the body. Bhopal (1984): 5700 dead.
Minamata Disease Death
Define Epidemiological Transition
Shifts from acute intentions and deficiency (caused by underdevelopment) to chronic, non-communicable diseases characteristic of modernisation of advancement.
Epidemiological Transition now
DCs with older population structures face more degenerate diseases etc, while LDCs face younger population structure, mortality pattern dominated by child deaths
Afghanistan Case Study Mortality
CDR: 8/1000. MMR: 400/100,000.
50% of deaths among women of child-bearing age is due to pregnancy (poor post-pregnancy sanitation and health services). 50% of child deaths are due to infections (CMR: 97/1000).
Poor rural health (25% in urban and 50% in rural have no clean water; easy spread of diseases like diarrhea (which accounts for 1/3).
Political: 26000 deaths due to war-related violence
CMR CDR MMR Afghan
97, 8, 400
Indonesia Case Study Mortality
AIDS: 34,000 deaths, and 660,000 living with it.
Prostitution: Injecting drug users prostitute to finance habits. Only 54.7% of homosexuals use condoms.
Drugs: 50% use needles + Compounded by the fact that 55% of drug users have AIDS
Illiteracy: 48% in Papua areas unaware of AIDS: Prevalence is 20x national average
Indonesia AIDS Policy
National AIDS Council: Created by SBY.
Increase in size from 25 to 388 sites in past 10 years. 74000 now going for tests.
Low cost antiretroviral drugs (ART) provided by government hospitals, 50,400 on ART treatment.
Stigma: Muslim countries - cannot talk about condoms so freely. Death penalty on drugs, but rehab is possible now.
Huge size. For every 1 person that goes on ART, 6 gets infected
Indonesia NAC size + number going for tests
25 to 388 sites in past 10 years. 74000
How many people on ART in Indonesia
Singapore Mortality Case Study
CDR: 4.7, MMR: 6/100K, IMR: 1.8
Strong public health measures, with healthcare being the most efficient in the world.
Action for AIDS: Supported by MOH, MCCYS, mobile testing takes 30 minutes, anonymous. While waiting for resorts, help patients understand.
Dealt properly with epidemics. Use of thermal sensors in public areas when SARS break out: contained in 3 months.
Japan Mortality Case Study
LE: 83.10 IMR: 1.9. 2.3 physicians per 1000
Socio-Economic factors: Healthy diet of fish. Sanitary culture.
Public Health Measures: 1961 Universal Healthcare Insurance. Heavily subsidized vaccination for children. Free TB treatment. 8.8% of GDP spent on healthcare
% Spent by Japan on healthcare
Movement of people involving a change in permanent residence with a complete readjustment of the community affiliations of the migrant.
Types of Migration (Voluntary)
1. Voluntary (Personal Choice eg Employment. 6.5 million Asians in America)
Retirement (Movement towards the Sunbelt (USA) (Australia: Movement to the south coast accounts for 20% of recent migratory flows))
Social Services: Migrations in/out of Buckinghamshire due to the Grammar School system
No personal choice. Usually of religious/political nature.
Rohingya: 200000 poeple not recognised in Myanmar.
Famine: Huge migratino out of Somalia.
Natural Disasters: Mount Soufriere eruption in 1990s (Montserrat)
Migrants returning to their city of origin.
Brain Gain: 25,000 Indian Technicians from Silicon Valley go back to India in 2001 to 2004.
Number of students returning to China since 2000: 9000 in 2000 to 186,000 in 2011 (Demand supply changes)
Brain Gain Example
25,000 Indian Technicians from Silicon Valley go back to India in 2001 to 2004.
Number of students returning to China since 2000: 9000 in 2000 to 186,000 in 2011 (Demand supply changes)
In progressive stages, in sequence, moving up the urban hierarchy. Capital cities attract migrants from smaller cities, while the small cities attract those from smaller cities
Movements opposing the pre-dominant streams of migration
International Migration Statistics
240 million migrants in 2014, up from 154 million in 1990. 3.4% living out of their country of origin in the world, with 51% female
Rural-Urban: People searching for work. Prominent right now in China, with 145 million rural-urban migrants to hotspots like China. Usually due to rapid urbanisation.
Urban-Rural: Cities viewed as unattractive due to transport problems etc. E.G. London to Lake District.
Inter-Urban: Changes in work location. Not much changes.
Intra-Urban: Movement within the same urban area due to higher residential mobility (suburbanisation)
Rural-Rural: Agrarian communities due to change in farming locations due to the seasons. Sheep shearers in USA. Farmers in the Alpine move to higher pastures during key periods within the agriculture period.
Trans-Migration: 1949: Trans-migration programme in Indonesia since 1949. Java and Madura islands (7% of total island land area support 65% of population), government forced people to move to Kalimantan etc.
Java and Madura Islands Size (proportion of country) against population size
7% of total island land area support 65% of population
Reasons for Migration
1. Push-Pull Mechanism
Push factor encourages people to move in response to pull factors of economic opportunities (perceived or otherwise). e.g. Planned construction of fence at Hungary border sped up migration from Syria.
Due to imbalance of economic opportunities.
28% of Chinese in USA stay there due to political instability as a 'push'.
36% of Chinese in USA stay for 'pull' of economic freedom
2. Behavioural Approach
Migration linked to events and age. People in their 30s are most mobile due to established education and family. Migrants are usually risk-takers, more motivated, innovative. Influence by life-cycle factors.
3. Economic Approach
Labour mobility which helps equilibrate differences in supply and demand. Remittances: Amounted to $267 billion in 2012. Welfare states attract immigrants seeking benefits. Employment laws also may make employment of locals artifically high, attracting migrants who do not mind working at low cost and no benefits.
28% of Chinese in USA stay there due to political instability as a 'push'.
36% of Chinese in USA stay for 'pull' of economic freedom
Factors that hinder migration e.g. Language or Distance
Total Remittances in 2012
$267 billion in 2012
Major Migration Patterns (NS, due to differences in development)
1. South-North: 80% of world's income is attributed to the north. Accounts for 40% of the total migration pathways. 2.3 million added annually to this flow due to economic opp.
2. South-South: Libya-Chad migration due to 2011 Libyan Crisis. Ukraine to Russian Federation (3.7 million), Bangladesh to Bhutan (Family reunification)
3. North-South: Return migration - 65% of Brazilian migrants are coming back in 2010, will increase to 85% in the near future. Student-migration. Recent economic downturn + BRICS: Companies want to take advantage of undeveloped economic areas, hire talented from North.
4. North-North: Germany to USA 1.3 million - Greatest financial success as compared to other migration flows. Majority female.
% of Brazilian migrants coming back in 2010
65%, projected to increase to 85%
Ukraine to Russia migration
S-N Migration increase per year
2.3 million added annually
Other Major Migration Patterns
1. North Africa to Europe:
6 million people from Algeria go back to France. Italy's 200km coastline makes it difficult to monitor. Security Set 94/2009 in Italy: Made illegal immigration a crime - 3 years in prison.
2. Mexico to USA:
6 million illegal immigrants, 12 million legal migrants. Increase of 210% in Hispanic speakers. Undocumented immigration increased by 60% since enforcement of NAFTA, CAFTA which puts Mexican farmers out of jobs.
3. Others to USA:
25 million since 1990 to 2013. 20% of all immigrants in the world.
4. Out of Syria:
4 million refugees total, 20% of Syria's population. 2500 people die on the way this year. Dublin regulation by the EU: Migrants forced to stay at the first country they arrive in and as such, a disproportionate amount is in Italy & Greece as they are more accessible. Germany expecting 700,000 to apply for asylum.
Mare Nostrum: Save 150,000 people through boat search and rescue operations, but defunded by the UK as it encourages migrants to take risks.
Migration to USA
6 million illegal, 12 million legal from Mexico.
25 million since 1990 to 2013, 20% of immigrants in the world
Pre-dominantly male centric for a large part of history, with overall trends being 48% women. But North has 52% of women, while South has 43%.
Recently: Increase in percentage of males in migration, with 3.1% annual increase in male migrants due to oil countries.
Women migration key country: Philippines. 94,000 leave Philippines to work as domestic workers
Dominant group between 25-46. Within age of fecundity: likely to contribute to population growth. North to South usually older (retirement age)
People with higher levels of education tend to migrate over longer distances. 21% of total migrants have more than 17 years of education vs 8% of native born Americans with 17 years of education.
80% of International students migrate to the north (e.g. EU Erasmus Programme). Higher educated migrants tend to adopt skilled positions in STEM industries, while lower-level adopt minimum wage jobs
Philippines domestic worker stats
Increase in male migration
Immigration Laws (Japan)
Pro-skills: Nihonjinron attitude initially of a homogeneous society. Immigration to Japan is low despite high SOL. Implemented points system (like in Australia). If >70 points, standard is relaxed.
Only 1/4 of planned foreign talent attracted (2000/yr). Net migration = 1
Immigration Laws (USA)
More than 40 million immigrants in the USA, 13% of population.
Immigration and Naturalisation act: Limits yearly migrants to 675,000 per year but illegal immigration can go up to 20 million.
Net international migration projected to overtake natural increase in the US as driver for growth by 2035.
Immigrants contributed to $180 billion net increase in GDP in 1999 to 2009
USA Migrants per year
675 000 under the Immigration and Naturalisation act
Immigration Laws (Nigeria)
Large amounts of Nigerians are migrating out of Nigeria, with 61% below poverty line, seeking greater wealth in Europe.
Heavy human trafficking, false promise of better life.
Current trend: Reduce migration through redirection policies to improve SOL
Demographic Consequences of Migration
Demographic: Main driver of growth for some countries e.g. Germany, TFR 1.38, RNI -1.97. Rely on net immigration to boost economy and provide labour. Highlights disparity and unevenness in growth - 100 million moving within China to find living.
Loss/Gain of Human Resources (eg India to USA vice versa): Brain Drain: Highly talented Indian tech professionals move to the UK - India losing $2 billion a year because of emigration. Cost India foreign exchange out flow of $10 billion per year.
China only 25% return from overseas, but number slowly increasing (186k now). Has helped to ease demographic pressure, and if they come back, improve standard of living. China household disposable income increase by 16%.
GERMANY TFR, RNI
India loss because of brain drain
10 billion in foreign exchange outflow, 2 billion because of emigration.
Impact on economy due to remittances and example
for every percentage increase in remittances, there is a 1.6% decline in poverty. China household disposable income increase to 16%.
Environmental Impacts of Migration
Ease on strain of resources from sending countries. Remittances can support development of greentech back home.
Receiving country faces increased demand for limited resources, and reduced green spaces due to increase in population. e.g. Philippines have to clear land to increase planting of rice. But firms and govt can reap iEOS + money from immigrants
IPCC on migration on climate change
Displaced people resort to unsustainable activities in absence of other means of survival, exacerbating current climate change processes and creating new ones
Socio-Cultural Impacts of Migration
Increased knowledge: Health knowledge in Mexico saw increase in birth weights and fall in IMR. Female education.
Reduced population from sending country (El Salvador to USA - unemployment fell to 6.5% - far less strain on infrastructure).
Cultural exchange takes place e.g. Architecture, food
Discrimination. 40% of Turkish population still do not feel integrated in Germany. Cultural clashes e.g. Islamophobia
Strain on familial structure e.g Jamaica - Absence of mothers due to migration, also cause higher incidence of youth crime
Economic Impacts of Migration
Immigrants represented 47% of increase in workforce in US, 70% in Europe.
Remittance to LDC: $267 billion in 2013, doubled from 2004 levels. USA to Mexico: $22 billion. UAE to India: $13 billion. Philippines $26 billion in 2014, increased by 6.2% from 2013
Poverty reduction: Increase 10% remit, fall 1.6% in poverty
Increasing wealth and economic situation (eg Singapore, Turkish to Germany)
BUT: Over-reliance in 74 countries + contagion effect - Peak of 90% remittance reliance. Better for government to produce effective development at home than to encourage remittance
Remittance to LDC
$267 billion in 2013, doubled from 2004 levels
Remittance USA to Mexico, UAE to India
USA to Mexico: $22 billion. UAE to India: $13 billion.
$26 billion in 2014, increased by 6.2% from 2013
General Problems with Migration
Resistance to Immigration at a government level (Hungary, Austria), milder in Canada, NZ.
Migration = increased people but not equals to increased jobs.
Problems with assimilation: Berlin School 80% Arab/Turkish- Closed due to violence. France: tensions after ISIS attacks
UK: British-born muslims blamed for terrorist acts. Life in UK text also useless.
Integration for Migrants
1. Assimilation: One-sided process of adaptation. Based on expected outcome of full citizenship.
2. Segregation: Limited social rights for migrants e.g. Japan, does not expect migrants to assimilate
3. Integration: two way "melting pot"
4. Multiculturalism: Recognizes societal cultural plurality in modern society without jeopardizing national identity
Population Distribution vs Population Density
Shows the way people/population are located vs Number of people per unit area. Global population density increased from 40 in 2000 to 47/km2 now
Failures of Population Density
Fails to show regional variation in population (e.g. Jakarta: 14,464/km2 vs Madura: 702)
Assumes that the land is isotropic. E.G. Australia 2/km2 because central is desert area
some useful generalisations i think
Higher densities = more favourable physical environments
areas of lower elevation holds >50% of population
Borders of continents and countries are more populated, 2/3 of world's population
Areas of Primary Concentration
East Asia: World's largest population cluster (especially around rivers eg Yangtze)
South Asia: India, Bangladseh
USA: NE (Philly: 4336) vs West (LA: 2750)
Jakarta vs Madura Density
14454/km2 to 702
Factors affecting Density and Distribution
A. Physical Factors
1. Land: Soil Fertility: Nile Valley has 99% of Egypt's population around the delta. 58/km2 Egypt, 1663/km2 for Nile as 95% of Egypt uninhabitable
2. Raw Minerals: Mineral and energy resources - coal deposits
3. Relief: Altitudes (High, >5000m). Steep slopes prevent high densities.
4. Climate (e.g. SE Britain Warmer, Coastal, more populous with 8.5 million)
B. Socio-economic: Voluntary Migration - Cumulative causation; success breeds success, capital cities have higher density (eg Beijing 11,500)
C. Political Influences: Induced/Forced Migration. 6.5 million internally displaced in Syria
d. Cultural and political factors: View on birth control. e.g. Swiss policy of neutrality: Greater proprtion of income for resource devellopment.
e. external influence - aid given to LDCs, with the number of resources imported by DCs affecting resource base
f. Population - Technology - Resources Relationships. Dynamic relationship which effects changes in density distribution over time, with technology changing the extent to which resources can be used. E.G. Hyderabad
Nile Valley Population Density
1663/km2, vs Egypt 58/km2, 99% of Egypt's population
Regional Variations in Population Distribution
Effects of uneven development in different parts of the country
New growth regions with increasing population density shows:
Technological innovation, favourable government policies (e.g. SEZs), positive cumulative growth spiral within growing economy. New growth in sunbelt regions e.g. California
New growth regions in LDCs
Due to innovation and investment + favourable policies. Manufacturing growth encouraged in new centres. E.G. Madras, Hyderabad. E.G. Cyberjaya was an attempt (MSC)
Implications of Uneven Distribution
Strain on resources (High house prices, fosters slum areas)
Social discord (tension to migrants etc)
Case Study Uneven DEVELOPMENT uk
Population Density: 255/km2, vs China: 142/km2
Main axis of development is from Lancashire and Yorkshire in North to South East Coast, along with M4 corridor, and NE Coastal region.
Densities are low in areas more than 200 m above sea levels e.g. Moorlands in SW England; steep slopes etc.
Lowland areas with good soils especially near coasts are favoured. Porstmouth: 5100/km2. All main urban areas are at low altitutdes.
BUT: This has caused prices in SE for housing to be 19x national average. Traffic problems
UK Population Density vs China
255 vs 142
Define Population Projections
Calculation of number of persons expected to be alive at a future date given number alive now and reasonable assumptions about age-specific mortality and fertility rates. Reliability of calculations depend on reliability of assumptions
Examples of direct influences that influence population projections
Zimbabwe: Rapid Economic Downturn
Botswana: AIDS cause the workforce to shrink by 17%
Inaccuracy of Population Projections (UK)
1937: UK predicted to have 45 million in 1951, but end up having 48 million
UN Population Projections fail
UN predicted population at 3136 million by 1980, but figure reached in 1970
Assumptions needed for Population Projections
Constant mortality and fertility rate (assume no new demographic policies be introduced)
Migration data usually not ommitted
Conditional Future (3 types)
Low: Smallest likely change in population size
Medium: Most likely course of events
High: Greatest change in population size, not likely
Significance of Population Projections on Global and International Level
Assess variation in population growth between regions and how this will affect future economies and policies, as there is delicate balance between resource and population. Provide sufficient support to LDCs if needed
Significance of Population Projections on a National Level
For countries to plan and provide for different age structures of population, reducing dependency ratios, such as infrastructure changes (∆ in no. of students in SG = prepare for 7 schools in SG in 2016 with no secondary one intake) and changing policies (eg Singapore's migration policies tightened a bit)
Reducing regional inequalities of Resource Distribution e.g. Estimating difference in demand for resources e.g. UK N/S divide
Economic Policies: Fiscal policy - See how much to tax and spend. Establish voting boundaries
SG Secondary School
∆ in no. of students in SG = prepare for 7 schools in SG in 2016 with no secondary one intake
Limitations of Population Projections
Negates the possibility that there are limits to growth.
Data collected in LDCs may not be reliable: Census is the only national survey that they have, may be disrupted due to political unrest.
Misreporting in rural areas, with some not having birth certificates, so need to guess age. Tendency for females to report that they are fertile as it is an indication of social status.
Inaccessibility of rural areas + language barriers (20+ diff languages, in Cameroon. North India: Male enumerators cannot survey woman)
Environmental changes not considered (e.g. Droughts, Typhoons, Tsunamis: 250,000 Indian Ocean)
Economic Booms: Unexpected economic recessions will reduce fertility.
Large scale migration due to asylum seekers e.g. Syrian
Changing role of women: No one anticipated the fall in TFR ∆ woman's social role
Define Population Pyramids
Mirror bar graph representing the population of a given area in terms of frequency of a component age group differentiated by gender.
Clear snapshot of population at a particular time frame
Value to Geographers and Government
Analyse changes in socio-economic status. Plan and provide adequate resources through policy making.
Types of Population Growth
Progressive: DR Congo, 6.05 (DTM Stage 2: Philippines, Indonesia).
Intermediate: Argentina, 2.19 (DTM Stage 3).
Regressive: Germany, 1.4 (DTM Stage 4: Japan).
Progressive Population Pyramids
Rapid, DR Congo 6.05. BR>DR. High BR shown by wide base, displays concavity, tapers regularly.
Intermediate Population Pyramids
Wide base shrinks. BR not as high, DR slows due to lower IMR. Slope gets steeper, less tapering occurs.
Regressive Population Pyramids
Steep Slopes, low BR and DR. Wide apex indicates high life expectancy. Usually greater % of females @ older age.
THINGS YOU CAN READ FROM AGE-SEX PYRAMID (SHAPE, BASE, PEAK)
SHAPE: Dependency ratio, adding up 3 different economic groups (<14, >65, and in between). A HUGE BUMP MAY INDICATE MIGRATION.
BASE: Birth rates by LOOKING AT THE LOWEST BAR. Can infer if country is AGRARIAN etc. Baby boom = wide bar. Gradient of sides: Steeper = higher death rates. Look at difference between IMR and CMR, reflection of country's level of healthcare and sanitation.
PEAK: Life expectancy
Industrial Revolution causing baby booms. World wars. Great Leap Forward. China's One-Child Policy: 1980s - underreporting of girl babies
LIMITATIONS OF POPULATION PYRAMIDS
Does not show reasons for change. Predictions limited by ceteris paribus assumption. Does not show regional variations.
Dependents and Dependency ratio
Those not in labour force <15 >64. Dependency ratio: Age population ratio expressing dependents population over those active in workforce
DR Case Study DC LDC
Japan - 63%. Combination of low BR and high LE, aged dependency. Singapore: Increased retirement age from 62 to 65.
LDC: More youth dependency. Usually lacking in social services like schools
Define Carrying Capacity
Largest population of people that can be supported by the resources in a given area at the current state of technology.
Factors that can change carrying capacity
Dependent on technology: Can be raised/lowered. Initially, coal fields in the UK have high carrying capacity but slow economic growth from mines lowered carrying capacity.
Shale oil discovery also greatly increased carrying capacity of oil-shortage countries.
Reached when population size is just at the right level for the maximum utilization of available resources to achieve the highest possible standard of living, without compromising the ability of future generations to achieve the same standards.
Maximum economic return: with high GDP, allocatively and distributively efficient. Must consider other factors like military etc (SG, Israel, will need more population for defence purposes)
Indicated by high income, low unemployment, good social services.
Generally impossible to properly know the optimum population, affected by age, attitudes.
Population size exceeds resource availability, leading to a fall in standard of living. Indicated by low income, low SOL, high density, high emigration. caused by Population Growth > Economic Growth; exhaustion of non-renewable resources
E.G. of overpopulation
Bangladesh: 1218/km2, + Extreme Flooding
Different types of overpopulation
Rural: Densely populated undeveloped areas with high TFR. e.g. Yunnan.
Urban: Deserted rust belts e.g. Wolverhampton, Hull.
Absolute: Maximum uitlization of resources but SOL still low (Egypt, Bangladesh).
Relative: Current production cannot support population but potential to grow (e.g. India).
Population size is too small to fully utilize resources of a country effectively, even if country can sustain an increase in population without a decline in SOL.
Ability to export surplus resources like food even if population increases.
Indicated by moderate income, slowly rising SOL, low unemployment, high immigration, low average population density, excellent growth potential
e.g. of underpopulation
Link between Population Resource Relationships and Population Density
High density does not indicate overpopulation, low density does not indicate underpopulation. E.G. Africa (18, over), LA 550 (Under) .
Does not show regional divides e.g. SE vs NE Brazil, Coastal vs West China
Density not equals to GDP: Canada - 4, $52,000 per capita. Bolivia: 8, $2867. Monaco: 16674/km2, $163,000
Malthusian Theory 1798 (please draw your own diagram)
Context: Pessimistic concern that Britain's population would grow past the carrying capacity - fear of food shortage.
Food supply acts as a ceiling to population growth.
THEORY: A FINITE OPTIMUM POPULATION SIZE IN RELATION TO FOOD SUPPLY
Assumptions of Malthus Theory
Human population if unchecked grows geometrically (1, 2, 4, 8 ...), while food supply at best increases arithmetically (yield is limited to a finite amount of arable land. If over cultivation = law of diminishing marginal returns).
Once the food ceiling is reached, population will be kept in check by positive and preventive checks. Checks operate with increased force as population nearing utmost limits of food.
Deliberate attempts by men to refrain from pursuing the dictate of nature in early attachment to one woman to limit growth through abstinence. When resources not enough, will go through "season of distress", discouraging marriage
Events that contribute to shortening of human life spans, reducing population. E.G. Famine, disease. Irish potato famine (1845-46): lowered birth rate, population halved by 1990.
Limitations of the Malthusian Theory
1. New Discoveries: e.g. Gas Field found in Egypt with 30 trillion cubic feet, developed by Italy group Eni.
2. GP growth and AP growth not true: New farming methods + falling population due to socio-economic changes.
3. Enough resources, just not distributed equally: $50 billion have been given to Africa by NGOs, but most is smuggled to military rulers. vs 1992: 26 million tons of food surplus in Europe
4. Cash crop
Africa NGO stat (food) vs Europe
50 billion have been given to Africa by NGOs, but most is smuggled to military rulers. vs 1992: 26 million tons of food surplus in Europe
Theory of Limits to Growth Model, 1972 (Club of Rome)
If present trends continue, sudden decline in economic growth will occur in the next century. Once population grows exponentially, alarmingly short time for preventive action. Lilies in a pond analogy.
Suggested plans for a global equilibrium.
What is Club of Rome?
Informal group of professionals, including scientists etc. The model is aimed at providing new understanding to policy makers to promote policies that can cope with the problems of a growing population.
5 factors affecting limits to growth model
Pollution. Industrial outptut. Agricultural Output. Non-Renewable Resources. Population Growth.
3 models of adjustment for Limits to Growth Model (please draw your own diagram)
1. Sudden adjustment. 2. Progressive adjustment. 3. Progressive fluctuation.
Limitations to Limit to Growth Theory
Postulates that there will be inelastcities with supply given current conditions. But in 1950, many predicted that the worst inelasticity of supply would depend on ability to get rid of pollution. Then, 1956: British Clean Air Act, reduced pollution in the sky by 3/4 in London in 15 years.
Assumes current technology. No link drawn between pollution and economic growth. Different individuals live at different standards of living.
Demographic Transition Model (DTM)
Descriptive framework to chart country's changes from high levels of births and deaths to low levels.
Allows for forecasting of changes that are going to occur. Adequate description of general trend.
Assumptions of DTM
○ Decrease in mortality due to socio-economic changes (ASSUMES that all countries go through same transition from agrarian to urban-industrial, BUT Mexico: 37% fall in mortality in 1960s. not because of industrialisation)
○ Fertility much less responsive to socio-economic changes → DR falls before BR (Fertility more personal, while there are possible external influences of DR e.g. technology)
● Society experiences a low natural increase in the long-run
Explaining the transition
Advent of Industrialisation: Shift to industrial based society = urbanisation = increased SOL of people.
Movement from religious to secular values.
Disease control and improvements in public health and personal hygiene.
Changing socio-economic situations after perceived costs and benefits of having large families.
Limitations of DTM
1. Deterministic model: Assumes that one stage will give rise to another in a linear fashion. BUT: France had no stage 2 as BR fell early due to Napoleonic Code of inheritance. BR and DR also do not always move together. Islamic countries may have stage 3 DR, but stage 2 BR.
2. Euro-centric model: DCs like the UK had ability to complete transition more easily due to relaxed immigration policy, and small population: Less momentum which makes it easy to fall in BR. DR FALLS IN UK DUE TO GREATER PURCHASING POWER AND NUTRITION AND EMPLOYMENT. DR FALLS IN LDC DUE TO MEDICAL TECH. DR falls faster in LDCs as these innovations usually come as a package. UK enters stage 2 with higher economic growth than LDCs, ability to cope with transition to Stage 2 better. Different socio-economic contexts.
3. Does not reflect how long it takes. Singapore: 30 years. UK: 140 years from 1850 to 1990.
4. DTM suggests that population responds to developmental factors. Demographic factors, in reality, may influence socio-economic development. EG Bangladesh's inability to cope with current population.
Applying DTM to LDCs
1. External Intervention. Fall in DR more rapid. If BR doesn't drop, population explosion.
2. Cultural Differences. Different societies view fertility differently.
3. Fertility Levels. Higher BR in LDCs due to pressure to marry early and have babies. Population momentum: Expansive pyramid that builds up, despite fertility decline, will continue to grow e.g. China.
4. Level of Women: Possible for women in LDCs to demand babies to increase status.
5. Difficulties in providing education. Difficulty in increasing number of schools etc despite increase in cohort population
6. Influence of Government Policies (on health, welfare, may affect BR)
Human centred concept to denote human satisfaction, wealth + strength
Define Sustainable Development
Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (Brundtland, 1987). Process by which human potential and environment is used and managed to supply humanity in the long run.
Pollution is a problem now: CO2 at its peak of 208ppm, 90% of seagulls have plastic in their syste,
Define Ecological Footprint
Measures resources consumed by community, represnts human demand on ecosystem
Strain on resources exceed carrying capacity of an area, leading to unsustainable use of resources.
DCs usually have high deficits, while LDCs struggle to help sustain this deficit. Highest deficit: 9.83 global ha/person UAE. Highest Creditor: 59.75 global ha/person Guyana.
For everyone to enjoy the ecological standards of the average American, another planet is required.
World Crises in Resource Use
Global underclass: 20% of population is in poverty, with increasing rich-poor divide. LDCs are DOUBLY DISADVANTAGED, provide DCs with raw materials and suffer.
STAT ON DC CONSUMPTION OF RESOURCES
20% of population in DCs consume 80% of the world's resources
International Efforts on Sustainable Development
Brundtland Report and 1992 Rio Conference. Transnational panels like the IPCC, UNFCC
2015 Paris Conference
COP21. Goal was to limit increase in temp by 2 degrees of pre-industrial levels. Largely unsuccessful, signed by 175 countries, ratified by 34, need to have 55 countries ratifying to account for 55% of emissions for the thing to come to force. Meet every 5 years to set more ambitious targets: Greater transparency and accountability.
Action Plan for the 1990s: Agenda 21
Detailed plans in all countries aimed at achieving sustainable development, replacing damaging practices with sustainable and environmentally friendly practices. Need different scales of cooperation and plans from local to national; National government obliged to formulate plans/laws for sustainable development.
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