Terms (Judgement and Decision-Making)
Terms in this set (54)
base rate neglect
Base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect or base rate bias, is a formal fallacy. If presented with related base rate information (i.e. generic, general information) and specific information (information only pertaining to a certain case), the mind tends to ignore the former and focus on the latter. 
Priming is an implicit memory effect in which exposure to one stimulus influences a response to another stimulus. The seminal experiments of Meyer and Schvaneveldt in the early 1970s
The representativeness heuristic is used when making judgments about the probability of an event under uncertainty. It is one of a group of heuristics (simple rules governing judgment or decision-making) proposed by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the early 1970s. Heuristics are described as "judgmental shortcuts that generally get us where we need to go - and quickly - but at the cost of occasionally sending us off course." Heuristics are useful because they use effort-reduction and simplification in decision-making.
In psychology and cognitive science, a schema (plural schemata or schemas) describes an organized pattern of thought or behavior that organizes categories of information and the relationships among them. It can also be described as a mental structure of preconceived ideas, a framework representing some aspect of the world, or a system of organizing and perceiving new information.
assumption that an outcome simultaneously satisfying multiple conditions is more probable than an outcome satisfying a single one of them.
using a personal experience or an isolated example instead of sound reasoning or compelling evidence
appeal to probability
is a statement that takes something for granted because it would probably be the case (or might be the case).
argument from fallacy
assumes that if an argument for some conclusion is fallacious, then the conclusion is false.
masked man fallacy
(illicit substitution of identicals) - the substitution of identical designators in a true statement can lead to a false one.
unwarranted assumption fallacy
The fallacy of unwarranted assumption is committed when the conclusion of an argument is based on a premise (implicit or explicit) that is false or unwarranted. An assumption is unwarranted when it is false - these premises are usually suppressed or vaguely written. An assumption is also unwarranted when it is true but does not apply in the given context.
an error in logic that concerns compound propositions. For a compound proposition to be true, the truth values of its constituent parts must satisfy the relevant logical connectives that occur in it (most commonly: <and>, <or>, <not>, <only if>, <if and only if>). The following fallacies involve inferences whose correctness is not guaranteed by the behavior of those logical connectives, and hence, which are not logically guaranteed to yield true conclusions.
an argument has a universal premise and a particular conclusion.
Informal fallacies - arguments that are fallacious for reasons other than structural (formal) flaws and usually require examination of the argument's content.[12
appeal to the stone
dismissing a claim as absurd without demonstrating proof for its absurdity
argument from ignorance
assuming that a claim is true because it has not been or cannot be proven false or vice versa
argument from personal incredulity
I cannot imagine how this could be true, therefore it must be false
argument from repetition
signifies that it has been discussed extensively until nobody cares to discuss it anymore
argument from silence
where the conclusion is based on the absence of evidence rather than the existence of evidence
argument to moderation
assuming that the compromise between two positions is always correct
argumentum ad hominem
the evasion of the actual topic by directing an attack at your opponent
begging the question
providing what is essentially the conclusion of the argument as a premise
burden of proof
I need not prove my claim, you must prove it false
tendency to favor information that confirms one's beliefs or hypotheses and to ignore information that disagrees with one's point of view
when the reasoner begins with what he or she is trying to end up with, sometimes called assuming the conclusion.
circular cause and consequence
where the consequence of the phenomenon is claimed to be its root cause
improperly rejecting a claim for being imprecise
pros and cons
also called "rational decision-making"
choosing the alternative with the highest probability-weighted utility for each alternative
examining alternatives only until an acceptable one is found. contrasted with maximizing, in which many or all alternatives are examined in order to find the best option.
elimination by aspects
choosing between alternatives using mathematical psychology.
technique compares alternatives by presenting the aspects in a decided and sequential order
acquiescence to a person in authority
calculating the opportunity cost of each options and decide the decision
methodology in which a single decision-maker, in order to take advantage of additional input, opens up the decision-making effort to a group for a collaborative effort.
tendency to be willing to gather facts that support certain conclusions but disregard other facts that support different conclusions.
premature termination of search for evidence
people might tend to accept the first alternative that looks like it might work
screening out information that we do not think is important
tendency to want to see things in a certain, usually positive, light
when people distort their memories of chosen and rejected options to make the chosen options seem more attractive
people tend to place more attention on more recent information and either ignore or forget more distant information
willingness to believe what one has been told most often and by the greatest number of different sources
anchoring and adjustment
decisions are unduly influenced by initial information that shapes our view of subsequent information
peer pressure to conform to the opinions held by a group
source credibility bias
tendency to reject a person's statement on the basis of a bias against the person, organization, or group to which the person belongs.
incremental decision-making and escalating commitment
we look at a decision as a small step in the process and this tend to perpetuate a series of similar decisions
people tend to attribute their own success to internal factors, including abilities and talents, but explain their failures in terms of external factors such as bad luck.
tendency to conform to others' decision-making expectation
underestimating uncertainty and the illusion of control
people tend to underestimate future uncertainty because of a tendency to believe they have more control over events than they really do
involves the idea that when faced with a decision-making event, an individual is more likely to take on a risk when evaluating potential losses, and are more likely to avoid risks when evaluating potential gains.
relates current probability to prior probability
inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable despite there having been little or no objective basis for predicting it.
affirming the consequent, sometimes called converse error or fallacy of the converse, is a formal fallacy of inferring the converse from the original statement. If bill gates owns fort knox, then he is rich, bill gates is rich, therefore bill gates owns fort knox. Owning fort knox isn't the only way to be rich. Any number of other ways exist to be rich.
also known as bayyesian model averaging, an ensemble technique that seeks to approximate the Bayes optimal classifier by sampling hypotheses from the hypothesis space and combining them using bayes' law. this model can be practically implemented. this technique has an expected error that is bounded to be at most twice the expected error of the bayes optimal classifier. Theoretically correct technique, but practically not.
the act of deriving logical conclusions from premises assumed to be true
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