32 terms

9th

Al-Kindi was the first to use statistics to decipher encrypted messages and developed the first code breaking algorithm in the House of Wisdom in Baghdad, based on frequency analysis. He wrote a book entitled "Manuscript on Deciphering Cryptographic Messages", containing detailed discussions on statistics

1560s (pub. 1663)

Cardano's Liber de ludo aleae attempts to calculate probabilities of dice throws

1577

Bartolomé de Medina defends probabilism, the view that in ethics one may follow a probable opinion even if the opposite is more probable

1654

Pascal and Fermat create the mathematical theory of probability

1657

Huygens's De ratiociniis in ludo aleae is the first book on mathematical probability

1662

Graunt's Natural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality makes inferences from statistical data on deaths in London

1693

Halley prepares the first mortality tables statistically relating death rate to age

1710

Arbuthnot argues that the constancy of the ratio of male to female births is a sign of divine providence

1713

Posthumous publication of Jacob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi, containing the first derivation of a law of large numbers

1724

Abraham de Moivre studies mortality statistics and the foundation of the theory of annuities in Annuities on Lives

1733

Abraham de Moivre introduces the normal distribution to approximate the binomial distribution in probability,

1739

Hume's Treatise of Human Nature argues that inductive reasoning is unjustified

1761

Thomas Bayes proves Bayes' theorem

1786

Playfair's Commercial and Political Atlas introduces graphs and bar charts of data

1801

Gauss predicts the orbit of Ceres using a line of best fit

1805

Adrien-Marie Legendre introduces the method of least squares for fitting a curve to a given set of observations,

1814

Laplace's Essai philosophique sur les probabilités defends a definition of probabilities in terms of equally possible cases, introduces generating functions and Laplace transforms, uses conjugate priors for exponential families, proves an early version of the Bernstein-von Mises theorem on the asymptotic irrelevance of prior distributions on the limiting posterior distribution and the role of the Fisher information on asymptotically normal posterior modes.

1835

Quetelet's Treatise on Man introduces social science statistics and the concept of the "average man"

1866

Venn's Logic of Chance defends the frequency interpretation of probability.

1877 - 1883

Charles Sanders Peirce outlines frequentist statistics, emphasizing the use of objective randomization in experiments and in sampling. Peirce also invented an optimally designed experiment for regression.

1880

Thiele gives a mathematical analysis of Brownian motion, introduces the likelihood function, and invents cumulants.

1888

Galton introduces the concept of correlation

1900

Bachelier analyzes stock price movements as a stochastic process

1908

Student's t-distribution for the mean of small samples published in English (following earlier derivations in German).

1921

Keynes' Treatise on Probability defends a logical interpretation of probability. Wright develops path analysis

1928

Tippett and Fisher's introduce extreme value theory

1933

Andrey Nikolaevich Kolmogorov publishes his book Basic notions of the calculus of probability (Grundbegriffe der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung) which contains an axiomatization of probability based on measure theory,

1935

R. A. Fisher's Design of Experiments (1st ed)

1937

Neyman introduces the concept of confidence interval in statistical testing,

1946

Cox's theorem derives the axioms of probability from simple logical assumptions

1948

Shannon's Mathematical Theory of Communication defines capacity of communication channels in terms of probabilities

1953

Nicholas Metropolis introduces the idea of thermodynamic simulated annealing methods