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Chapter 13 - Reasoning and Decision Making
Terms in this set (43)
Affirming the antecedent
Occurs in a conditional syllogism of the following form: If p, then q; p occurs; therefore q occurs. The antecedent, p, is affirmed in the second premise. This is a valid form of syllogism. See Table 12.1. See also Denying the consequent
Affirming the consequent
an invalid argument where one affirms the consequent and concludes that the antecedent is true as well.
(ex. If the phone is not charged, it will not work
The phone does not work
Therefore the phone is not charged)
a preceding event; a FORERUNNER; a PRECURSOR
When a conclusion is influenced by the way information is phrased.
estimating the likelihood of events based on their availability in memory; if instances come readily to mind, we presume such events are common
Base rate bias
The initial probability given no other information; occurs when people put too much weight on evidence provided, or additional information, and not enough weight on the information provided by the base rate
how common a characteristic or behavior is in the general population.
a tendency to search for information that supports our preconceptions and to ignore or distort contradictory evidence
when people think that two events are more likely to occur together than either individual event
The result of the condition, the part after the "then"
Denying the antecedent
an invalid form of deductive argument; if p, then q; not p; therefore, not q
Denying the consequent
Occurs in a conditional syllogism of the following form: If p, then q; q does not occur; Therefore p does not occur. The consequent, q, is denied in the second premise. This is a valid form of syllogism. See Table 12.1. See also Affirming the antecedent.
Expected utility theory
breaks down decision making into a comparison of utility; proposes that decisions ultimately boil down to a consideration of possible alternatives
when people give different answers to the same problem depending on how the problem is phrased (or framed)
the tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it. (Also known as the I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon)
the perception of a relationship where none exists
- emotions that are experienced at the time a decision is being made
- integral or incidental
Incidental immediate emotions
emotions that are unrelated to the decision
Law of large numbers
(statistics) law stating that a large number of items taken at random from a population will (on the average) have the population statistics
the joint study by economists and biologists that attempts to determine how the brain handles economic decisions
the tendency to take whatever course of action does not require you to do anything (also called the default option)
A pragmatic reasoning schema that states that if a person satisfies condition A, then they get to carry out action B. The permission schema has been used to explain the results of the Wason four-card problem.
an assumption; the basis for a conclusion
judging the likelihood of things in terms of how well they seem to represent, or match, particular prototypes; may lead one to ignore other relevant information
Social exchange theory
the theory that our social behavior is an exchange process, the aim of which is to maximize benefits and minimize costs
A three-part deductive argument in which a conclusion is based on a major premise and a minor premise ("All men are mortal; Socrates is a man; therefore, Socrates is mortal.")
Validity in deductive reasoning
deductive argument consisting of three statements in categorical form that together use only three terms, called the major, minor, and middle
A Syllogism in which the major premise deals with uncertain or hypotheical events. usually identified by words such as: if, assuming, supposing, or similar terms either expressly stated or clearly implied. Also known as the "hypotheical syllogism."
reasoning in which a conclusion is reached by stating a general principle and then applying that principle to a specific case (The sun rises every morning; therefore, the sun will rise on Tuesday morning.)
The reasoning principle that to test a rule, it is necessary to look for situations that falsify the rule.
a simple thinking strategy that often allows us to make judgments and solve problems efficiently; usually speedier but also more error-prone than algorithms
deriving general principles from particular facts or instances ("Every cat I have ever seen has four legs; cats are four-legged animals").
make sense of the world by perceptual grouping, roadmaps of our environment
Pragmatic reasoning schemas
Schemas used to evaluate situations such as permissions and obligations. Encourages conclusions that are practical to the real world, as opposed to formal logic which can lead to conclusions that are "correct" but not useful.
Coin toss payoffs (Kermer, Driver-Linn, Wilson and Gilbert, 2006)
Dividing money (Sanfey, Rilling, Aronson, Nystrom and Cohen, 2003)
Mental models (McCloskey, 1986)
Selecting jelly beans (Denes-Raj and Epstein, 1994)
Wason Card Task and envelopes (Cheng and Holyoak, 1985)
Wason Card Selection Task (Wason, 1966)
Wason Card Task and envelopes (Johnson-Laird et al., 1972)
Wason Card task (Griggs and Cox, 1982)
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