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PHILO 110 Test 3
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Gravity
Terms in this set (37)
inductively strong
an argument is _______________ if and only if, assuming all premises are true, the conclusion could be false but it is still more likely to be true than false
fallacious
An argument is ___________ if and only if, assuming all the premises are true, the conclusion is not more likely to be true than false
Sound
An argument is _______________ if and only if its strength of reasoning is valid and all of its premises are acceptable
Cogent
An argument is ________________ if and only if its strength of reasoning is inductively strong and all of its premises are acceptable
Bad
An argument is _______________ if and only if its strength of reasoning is fallacious, or any of its premises are unacceptable
Statistical syllogism
the inductive argument form: X% (greater than 50%) of F's are G's. A is an F. Therefore A is a G
Statistical generalization
The inductive argument form: X% of an observed sample of F's are G's. The observed sample is sufficiently large and unbiased. Therefore X% of F's are G's.
Fallacy of small sample
When someone attempts to make a statistical generalization, but they do not have the premise that their sample was sufficiently large
Fallacy of sample bias
When someone attempts to make a statistical generalization, but they do not have the premise that their sample was sufficiently unbiased.
The Improbability Principle
Extremely unlikely events are commonplace
Borel's Law
Events with a sufficiently small probability never occur
The Law of Inevitability
Something must happen OR if you make a complete list of all possible outcomes, then one must occur
The Law of Truly Large Numbers
With a large enough number of opportunities, any outrageous thing is likely to occur
Law of Selection
You can make things as likely as you want if you choose after the event
Regression Fallacy
The mistaken inference that a casual factor is required to explain some pattern, when that pattern is really just a regression to the mean
Fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc
The mistaken inference of inferring that A causes B just because A proceeded B, or because A is correlated with B
Inference to the best explanation
The inductively strong argument form: we have observed some phenomenon Q. And E provides the best explanation for Q. Therefore, E is true
Confound
When A and B are correlated, but it is not because A causes B or B causes A, but some third cause C is the confound that is causing both A and B together
Law of the Probability of Lever
A slight change in circumstances can have a huge impact on probabilities
Law of Near Enough
Events which are sufficiently similar are often regarded as identical by our minds
Availability heuristic
The mental shortcut that uses how easy it is to think of instances of an A as its heuristic attribute, for the target attribute of how likely an A is to occur
Anchoring and adjustment heuristic
The mental shortcut for estimating any target attribute of some quantitative value, when the heuristic attribute is taking a convenient value as a starting point and moving our estimate up or down in whichever direction seems appropriate
Scope
A hypothesis that explains more phenomena, is to that extent, better than a hypothesis that explains less
Simplicity
A hypothesis which makes fewer assumptions, is to that extent, better than a hypothesis that makes more of them
Conservatism
A hypothesis that is consistent with what we already take to be true is, to that extent, better than a hypothesis which contradicts what we already had thought to be true
Fruitfulness
A hypothesis that makes novel predictions, is to that extent, better than a hypothesis that does not point us towards new discoveries
Target attribute
What you are trying to reason about
Heuristic attribute
The thing it's easier to think about
Biases
Cases in which the heuristic attribute (how easy it is to think of instances of X) can fail to track the target attribute
Recognition heuristic
When making a judgement about the value of various items, the more easily recognized item will be considered to have the higher value
Representativeness heuristic
The heuristic that has the target attribute of how likely is something to be a member of some category, and the heuristic attribute of how much does that thing resemble our mental picture of a typical member of that category
Punishment/Outrage heuristic
In order to determine what the appropriate punishment is, we hold that the punishment should be proportional to the outrageousness of the act (the heuristic attribute)
Cost-Benefits Heuristic
In some cases of determining what is normally blameworthy (the target attribute), we consider it morally blameworthy to knowingly engage in acts that will result in human deaths (the heuristic attribute)
Acts-Omission Heuristic
In some cases of determining what is morally blameworthy (the target attribute), we consider it more blameworthy to perform a harmful action than a harmful omission
Base rate neglect
When evaluating the probability of some event happening, we tend to ignore general information about how often that kind of event occurs, and just focus on what we take to be specific to the case
Conditional probability
p(A|B) is the probability that A is true, given B
Prosecutor's fallacy
Mistakenly reasoning in a way that uses p(A|B) where what is needed is p(B|A)
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