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Math
ISM Exam #1- Decision Making Process
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Flashcards
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Terms in this set (33)
Decision making
Choosing among alternative courses of actions
Good Decision making requires...
Creativity & Analystical Skills
Creativity
To find viable alternatives
Analystical Skills
To choose between alternatives
A framework for examining complex problems
Provided by having a formal DM process
A clear and transparent method that has been well defined and pproved
Provided by having a formal DM process
Gives rationale for decisions
Provided by having a formal DM process
Provides consistency with DM process
Provided by having a formal DM process
Ensures a level of objectivity
Provided by having a formal DM process
Requirements statements of assumptopns, criteria, goal, etc.
Provided by having a formal DM process
Gives repeatable, reviewables, revisables, and easy-to-understand decisions
Provided by having a formal DM process
8 Steps in DM process
-Problem Definition
- Determine Requirements
-Establish Goals
-Identifying alternatives
-Define Evaluation criteria
-Select Decision making tools
-Evaluate alternatives agains criteria
-Validate solutions against problem statement
Problem Definition
Critical step is to solve the root of the problem, produce a clear, concise statement that describes the initial and desired conditions
Determines Requirements
Well-defined requirements help you to eliminate infeasible solutions early
Requirements
Conditions that any acceptable solution must satisfy
Establish Goals
Sometimes goals suggest new alternatives and sometimes requirements are restated goals
Goals are
wants and desires
Goals go beyond...
essentials, must-have requirements
Identifying Alternatives
Alternatives provide different ways to transform the initial condition into the desired condition
Each alternative must show...
-How it solves the defined problem
- How it is different from the alternative solutions
Define Evaluation Criteria
Criteria should:
-Meansure something important
-Not depend on another criterion
Criteria
are used to measure how well the alternatives meets a goal
Select Decision Making Tools
Many decision-making tools exist
Match the tool...
to the decision
The simpler the tool...
the better
Evaluate alternatives against criteria
Use the criteria to evaluate alternatives
Not all Criteria are...
Equally Weighted- Reflect the importance of the criteria
Final Solution should
-Fulfull the required state
-meet all requirements
-Best achieve the goals
Pros and Cons Analysis
Lists good an bad about each alternative
- Good for simple decisions with few alternatives and few discriminating citeria
Cost/ Benefit Analysis
Determine the probable benefits of each alternative and weigh against the probable costs
Scenarios Analysis
Analyze possible future events by comparing the future alternatives outcomes
DM Tools/ Techniques
-Pros and Cons Analysis
-Cost/ Benefit Analysis
-Scenarios Analysis
Business Case
Feasibility & costs
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Verified questions
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In given exercise, write the complex conjugate of the complex number. Then multiply the number by its complex conjugate. $$ \sqrt{-20} $$
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Use the factor theorem to factor the following expressions: (a). $a^3-b^3$ (b). $a^5-b^5$ ($c$). $a^7-b^7$ (d). $a^n-b^n$
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(a) A gambler knows that red and black are equally likely to occur on each spin of a roulette wheel. He observes five consecutive reds occur and bets heavily on black at the next spin. Asked why, he explains that black is "due by the law of averages." Explain to the gambler what is wrong with this reasoning. (b) After hearing you explain why red and black are still equally likely after five reds on the roulette wheel, the gambler moves to a poker game. He is dealt five straight red cards. He remembers what you said and assumes that the next card dealt in the same hand is equally likely to be red or black. Is the gambler right or wrong, and why?
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The temperature Tin a freezer is always within $5^{\circ} \mathrm{F}$ of $-10^{\circ} \mathrm{F}$. Write an absolute value inequality that describes possible temperatures in the freezer. Give the temperature range of $T$.
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