9 terms

opre ch 8

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forecasting
way for manager to reduce uncertainty and make better estimates
qualitative forecasting
- involve use of expert judgement
- historical data
quantitative forecasting
used when
-past info available
-info can be quantified
-can assume pattern will continue
time series
sequence of observations on a variable measured at successive points in time or periods of time
horizontal pattern
the data fluctuate around a constant mean
trend pattern
gradual shifts or movements to relatively higher or lower values over a longer period of time
seasonal pattern
recurring patterns over successive periods of time
forecast error
value - forecast
mean absolute percentage error
(sum of ( |forecast error / value|) ) * 100 ) / n)
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