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Foresight Quiz 1

Terms in this set (54)

Foresight Pyramid
1. perspective - emergent change in business and society
2. Foresight
3. Insight - implications for business
Framing
- identify a topic of category of importance for the future
- define the interaction of the systems in play
- build consensus on goals and objectives
- contextualize your topic
Modes of Scanning
- environmental scanning: radar: ongoing, continuous, broad scope
- deep dives: research: project-based, focused scope
Questions Assessing the Source
- how knowledgeable is the source?
- is sufficient evidence provided?
- does the source have any bias?
Scuttlebutt
listen in on what others are saying about your source
Laddering
step down one or more rungs into your source's references
DEGEST
Demography
Economy
Government
Environment
Society
Technology
Cross Impact Analysis
Analyzing the interactions and synergies between trends
Weak Signals and Diamonds in the Rough
- relevant, but not too relevant
- weak signals that are repeated across scanned sources
Peripheral vision
companies narrow their field of view, but interesting change tends to occur at the periphery
- improve periphery by exploring unfamiliar and uninteresting areas
- seek out 'remarkable people'
- know your 'adjacencies'
selective perception
the more focused we are on a challenge, the more likely we are to overlook the obvious information
educated incapacity
The more expertise one has in a given field, the less likely that person will be to see a solution outside of the framework within which that person was taught to think
anchoring bias
relying too heavily on one initial piece of information or trait
affinity bias
tendency to be favorably disposed or trusting of information from those regarded as similar to themselves
confirmation bias
search for or interpret information that confirms hypothesis or preconceptions while disregarding contradictory info
projection bias
belief that others hold same values, attitudes and preferences as you
availability bias
vivid, memorable, easily accessible events get undue weight
alien eyes
challenge your own beliefs
figure-ground
challenge assumptions and conclusions, inverting what you think you see/know
megatrends
a large, social, economic, political, environmental or technological change that is slow to form. once in place, megatrends influence a wide range of activities, processes and perceptions, both in government and in society, possibly for decades
uneven population growth / Implosion
global population is growing, but unevenly. More developed countries experiencing less growth, asian and african countries experiencing large growth
dependency ratio
((# of people ages 0-14) + (# of people ages 65+)) / (# of people ages 15-64)
BRICS countries
five major emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa
MINT countries
Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey
Ecological footprint
measures how fast we consumer resources and generate waste
overshoot
when the environment's capacity and the limits to growth are exceeded
natural capital
Natural resources and natural services that keep us and other species alive and support our economies.
externalities
a consequence of an action that affects someone other that the agent undertaking that action, and for which the agent is neither compensated nor penalized through the markets
IPAT equation
Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology
or
impact = (population x affluence) / technology
Triple Bottom Line
- social performance
- environmental performance
- economic performance
sustainability sweet spots
the intersections of social, environmental and economic performance of businesses
state of the future index
a composite index measuring progress, expert polling via real-time Delphi process
- looks back 20 years, forward 10 years
- 29 indicators, 700ish experts
composite index
grouping of equities, indexes or other factors combined in a standardized way, providing a useful statistical measure of overall market or sector performance over time.
Delphi Technique
experts create initial forecasts, submit them to the company for averaging, and then refine the forecasts
15 global challenges
- Sustainable development & climate change
- Clean water
- Population & resources
- Democratization
- Global foresight and decision-making
- Global convergence of IT
- Rich-poor gap
- Health issues
- Education and learning
- Peace & conflict
- Status of women
- Transnational organized crime
- Energy
- Science & technology
- Global ethics
UN 17 Sustainable Development Goals
- no poverty
- zero hunger
- good health and well being
- quality education
- gender equality
- clean water and sanitation
- affordable and clean energy
- decent work and economic growth
- industry, innovation, and infrastructure
- reduced inequalities
- sustainable cities and communities
- responsible consumption and production
- climate action
- life below water
- life on land
- peace, justice, strong institutions
- partnerships for the goals
Competitive Convergence
exists when companies are indistinguishable from each other
cognitive distance
the distance that people perceive to exist in a given situation
cognitive proximity
ideas that are close
opportunity box
the three roles of strategic leaders
- spotting
- legitimizing
- acting
strategic leaders
people located in different areas and levels of the firm using the strategic management process to select strategic actions that help the firm achieve its vision and fulfill its mission
continuous change
- gradual improvement over long periods
- usually preserves the framework/context
- linear, exponential, asymptotic, cyclical
discontinuous change
- sudden change to new levels
- usually destroys framework/context
- often involves short-term loss - 'creative destruction'
s-curves of change
describe distribution of adoption of change
jump to new s-curve = new era of change
paradigm shift
a change in the basic assumptions or system conditions - permanently disrupting the framework. i.e. the emergence of a new era
eras and transitions
equilibrium exists within an era, incremental change, tranquility
punctuated equilibrium
disruption causes sudden change to new levels, punctuates end of old era
hype curve
the expectation overestimates the amount of change, then underestimates compared to reality
wild cards/black swans
the event is a surprise (small probability event) that has a major impact
creative destruction
the process of transformation that accompanies disruptive innovation
- can cause temporary economic distress: job loss in disrupted sectors, obsolescence of work skills, destruction in the value of business assets
scanning
- gather signals of change from "experts"
- assess the reliability of the signal source
- interpret the meaning of the signal
- synthesize the information from a systems perspective
spotting
low-hanging fruits plucked quickly, superiority requires new lens and mental process
acting
combat inertia and guide firm toward opportunity - particularly difficult if it alters firm's identity
legitimizing
persuading external stakeholders that new perspective is viable
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