365 Exam 3
Terms in this set (50)
Independent/ Outside Groups
-Strengthened by Citizens United (2010)
-Now known as super PACs & 501c's
-Raise funds from unlimited sources in unlimited amounts
-501 c5's not required to disclose donors
American Future Fund v. Kay Hagan (NC 2014)
-Targeted to younger adults
-Libertarian running for Congress.
Citizens United v. FEC (2010)
-Unlimited contributions and expenditures
- Consequences: Rise of Super PACs, 501c4's (dark money)
-Overturned McCain-Feingold's limits on group spending
McCutcheon v. FEC (2014)
-Eliminated aggregate limit on how much individuals can give in capped hard-money contributions
Candidates who spend the most win
- 8/10 Senate contests
- 9/10 House races
Who spends more money on campaigns?
When do challengers gain vote share?
When incumbents spend a lot of money on a campaign communications.
Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) 1971
-1980 law limited amount of money individuals can donate & challenged corporate, union, and interest group donations through PAC's which are limited in how much they can give
-Non-connected PACs must pay for the overhead from the funds they raise.
Bi-Partisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) 2002
-Intended to outlaw soft money
-Campaign communication 30 days before primary or 60 days before general must be paid for with funds tightly regulated by the FEC
McConnell v. FEC
-Argued that the act infringed on free speech which was protected from Buckley v. Valeo (1976)
-Equated campaign spending with political speech protected under the constitution
-SC found key provisions of BCRA constitutional (soft money ban)
FEC v. Wisconsin Right to Live (2007)
-Advertisement would be deemed express advocacy and therefore subject to regulation only if the ad is susceptible of no reasonable interpretation other than as an appeal to vote for this or that candidate.
-Donate because they may believe they are helping to change the course of history or be apart of single issue history
-More likely to base their donations on strict policy grounds
Reasons a PAC might give money to a candidate
1)legislator voted with them on their issues
2)legislator site on a committee that has jurisdiction over the majority of the legislation the PAC has set out as its priorities for the year
3)there is a good following in the district
4)the corporation represented by the PAC has a good number of employees in the district
Who receives the majority of group contributions?
Why do groups donate?
Out of a desire for access- the hope they will have the opportunity to present their case to the elected official.
-Obtaining Seed Money
-Group potential givers (small, medium, large)
-Contributors are asked to donate at periodic intervals can increase the overall contributions
-Contact those who have given once to give again
Direct Mail Prospect List
Database of individuals who have shown some characteristics or qualities thought likely to make them susceptible to a candidates appeal for funds.
What makes direct mail programs successful?
-Built around a compelling story
-Measurement of demographic characteristics, knowledge, opinions, and behavior by questioning a random sample of individuals who represent the voting public as a whole.
-Analyze contact (partisanship)
-Position in the race
-Candidate and opponent strengths and weaknesses
-Identify voter concerns
-Track race over time
-Identify relationship between various factors
Types of Polls
Before candidate announces, to see where you stand, name recognition, where opponent's stand
Plan general strategy, measure relative power of message, test oppo, and counter oppo
Tracking, quick response
Showing people something and getting their reactions and having them discuss their opinions and reactions
-not formal polling
-Provide voters with negative information about a candidate that is designed to persuade or push voters away from voting a certain way or discourage them from voting at all
Form of negative campaigning disguised as a political poll designed to change opinions, not measure them.
-Doorstep opinions & non-attitudes
-Only socially acceptable answers to sensitive questions.
-Lie about voting behavior
Internet polling benefits
-faster to complete
-great for screening questions
Internet polling disadvantages
-older people don't receive/participate
-Margin of Error
Margin of Error
-Degree of accuracy; the estimated range within the real population parameter lies
-Degree of certainty that the population parameter falls within the margin of error (typically 95%)
-Univariate analysis is useful in understanding candidate preference, name recognition, knowledge
-Bivariate analysis helps campaigns understand, explain, and predict
-Basic present relationships between variables
Types of Poll Questions
Benefits of Voting
-Sense that your voice will be heard
Costs of Voting
Ways to make voting easier
-Social Pressure/ Shaming
-Direct Voter Contact
-Election Day Registrations
-Vote by Mail
Gerber, Green, Larimer (2000)
-Social Pressure/ Shaming
-Higher turnout was observed among those who received mailings promising to publicize their turnout to their household or their neighbors.
Direct Voter Contact
-Most effective way to mobilize supporters but the most time consuming
-Voters more engaged, attentive
-Two way communication
-Volunteers can tell their story
-Primary goal is mobilization not persuasion.
Bailey, Hopkins, Rogers 2016
-Tested effectiveness of persuasion message via canvassing, phone, mail
-Key findings: With canvassing, backlash is more likely than persuasion.
Why do you think that being asked to vote for a specific candidate appears to be an unpleasant experience for a sizable subset of voters?
Persuade when they encounter only undecided voters.
Who does positive social pressure work well for?
Women & Minorities
Types of DVC
-Recruits lawyers to report any problems they see
-join civic groups
-inside poll observers must be VA registered
-outside poll observers don't have to be VA registered
-Observers are looking for
--Parking (no police, ticker tape at 0)
--6am start time (7/8 call registrar)
--names and check in are going smoothly (Curing ballot, supplies)
Bill Bolling Speaker
-get involved before you run
-local government yields faster policy changes
-problems with polling
-Key challenge: measuring likely voters
-cell phones are a problem->Spend $ to manually call cell phones, Stick with landlines and compensate with statistical weights, quotas
-Coverage error -not everyone can be reached, especially older people ... who are more likely to vote ->60% of age 65+ Americans don't use the internet, yet 22% of the electorate-> 3% of age 18-29 use internet, yet only 13% of electorate