Maclean, Norman
Young Men and Fire
Theory provides framework or basis from which to critically think.
Confirmation bias- It's hard to admit you're wrong.
There are indicators something is wrong before a crisis.
This is an example of critical inquiry leading to a discovery of the causes and consequences of systems failure.
Reynolds, Paul Davidson
A Primer on Theory Construction
Scientific knowledge must provide:
A method of organizing & categorizing things (typology),
"Predictions" of future events,
Explanations of past events,
Sense of understanding about causal relationships,
Potential for control (indep. Variables)

Desirable characteristics of scientific knowledge:
Abstractness (independent of space and time)
Intersubjectivity (Agreement about meaning among relevant scientists)
Empirical relevance (can be compared to "known" evidence)
Gaddis, John
The Landscape of History
The title is a metaphor as history is like cartography- They both create a representation of reality.

Historians cannot know truth. Tension between particularization and abstraction (rarely claim applicability beyond context but do acknowledge tendencies and patterns)

Historians believe in contingent causation - ID sensitive dependence on initial conditions (Cleopatra's Nose)

Causes always have context - dependence of sufficient (exceptional) causes on necessary(general) causes; context does not directly cause what happens, but determines consequences

Point of no return (moment when equilibrium ceases to exist(phase transistion) as a result of whatever trying to explain); this is the exceptional cause; the principle of diminishing relevance allows emphasis of this over other general causes

History is not guide to future, but can guide and inform the future

Time and Space is defined by selectivity, simultaiouaity, scale, Continuities, Contingencies, and Dependence."
Kuhn, Thomas - Structure of Scientific Revolutions
Paradigm Shift

paradigm is a commonly accepted scientific principle - "A theory in practice"

new paradigms start with rejection of current beliefs

cannot hold two paradigms, changes the way one views evidence

normal science is research based upon past scientific achievement

SAMS so what: be open to new paradigms
Schneider, "Vulcan's Anvil"
Growth of Operational Art through study of American Civil War
Distributed Ops
Distributed Campaign
Continuous Logistics
Instantaneous C2
Operationally Durable
Operational Vision
Distributed Enemy
Distributed Deployment
Isserson Evolution of Operational Art
Deep operations
Simultaneous containment and suppression of enemy's depth.
Consecutive Operations
Depth, Mass, Mobility, Organization, C2
Shimon Naveh, In Pursuit of Military Excellence: The Evolution of Operational Theory
Characteristics of Operational Art:
Reflect the cognitive tension
Based upon industrious maneuver
Action should be synergetic
Aim towards disruption of Opponent's system
Reflect a contemplative attitude towrds the factor of randomness

Non-Linear in Nature
Interaction between maneuver and attrition
Independent Entity
Related to a broad and universal theory
Calhoun, Mark - "Clausewitz and Jomini: Contrasting Intellectual Frameworks in Military Theory"
Calhoun believes "these works instead represent very different forms of military thought, based on fundamentally opposed intellectual foundations."

Clausewitz: war first hand at 12 years old
Jomini: first hand after theory published

Intellectual Traditions
Clausewitz: Counter-enlightenment
Jomini: Enlightenment

Clausewitz: framework for inquiry
Jomini: Simply war and reveal key to victory

Clausewitz: COG, policy and war, friction
Jomini: LOOs, Decisive Points
Clausewitz meets Reynold's standards better than Jomini
Echevarria, Antulio. Clausewitz and Contemporary War
Clausewitz's understanding of objective knowledge derived from Kiesewetter's Outline of General Logic, an arrangement of lectures on the Kantian system of logic delivered at the Institute for Young Officers.

Clausewitz worked with pairs of ideas, dualisms, which the term dialectics tends to obscure. Thus, readers would do well to consider his method more along the lines of a contrasting of opposites in order to penetrate appearances and explore the substance of concepts more closely

Importance of COG Analysis
Lynn, John A. Battle
Understanding the cultural context through a cultural approach to warfare allows you to see the changes in institutions over time, promotes critical thinking, and reduces over-generalizing (there are no Universal Soldiers).

Role of discourse in a society to discuss the reality of war vs. the perception of an ideal form of war.

Argues against technological determinism (differences in styles of warfare due to weaponry only) because it is the culture and society that determine how a weapon is used (ie. German vs. French use of the tank).

Argues against Hanson's enduring Western way of war from the Greeks/Romans due to lack of continuity in link because of the Dark Ages.

Discussion of the tournament (idealized) and Chevauchée (reality) forms of warfare
Porter, Patrick. - Military Orientalism: Eastern War through Western Eyes
A cultural approach allows you to understand how war impact the society.

War is not just culture, necessary for limited understanding

A cultural approach allows you to understand how war impacts the society.

Culture is not a static thing and changes during warfare due to the relationship between war, politics, and the society. Belief that culture is an ambiguous repertoire of competing ideas that can be selected and manipulated vs. a clear script for action.

Concept that the West defines itself in contrast to the "Other."

Value of the cultural approach is:
information requires interpretation of meaning and that requires cultural understanding
allows strategy to optimally organize resources to accomplish goals
allows development of achievable vs. utopian goals, and
culture shapes choices and ideational factors (ideals and norms), which are more important than objective interests
Griffith, Samuel B., ed. and trans. (Hart Intro) Sun Tzu: The Art of War
Hart is clearly enamored with Sun Tzu. He argues that only Clausewitz is comparable and Sun Tzu is even more relevant than him.

Sun Tzu is the first known attempt to formulate a rational basis for the planning and conduct of military operations.

Sun Tzu's purpose "was to develop a systematic treatise to guide rulers and generals in the intelligent prosecution of successful war."

Sun Tzu understood the importance of moral, intellectual, and circumstantial elements in war and considered them to be more important than physical. Cautioned kings and commanders to not rely solely on military power.

Sun Tzu understood the decisive influence of supply.

Sun Tzu discusses the moral, emotional and intellectual qualities of the good general.
Ames, Roger T., ed. and trans. Sun Tzu: The Art of Warfare
Leadership is critical. Must select the right commander, and that commander needs specific traits. Parts of Sun Tzu are really leadership lessons.

Importance of study. Each battle/war is unique, and requires study. It is the many lists of attributes and types that support this study - much like METT-TC, ASCOPE, PMESII-PT, etc today.

War is expensive and destructive. Should be avoided when possible. If not possible, only commit resources (men) when victory is assured.

Does recognize the enemy will attempt to do the same things he is suggesting.

Need to know about enemy commander.

The only way to understand is to have very good intelligence. For Sun Tzu, this meant HUMINT as that was the only type available to him.
Linn, Brian McAllister. The Echo of Battle: The Army's Way of War
Three distinct intellectual traditions affect how the Army uses lessons from previous wars to determine how to prepare for next war.
Guardians: The "Guardians," view war as "an engineering problem," requiring the proper application of art and science to resolve, and have generally been conservative in foreign affairs, such as Colin Powell.
Heroes - such as George S. Patton, were adaptable and flexible, holding that "wars are fought by men."
Managers - such as George C. Marshall or Dwight D. Eisenhower, viewed war as a matter of proper mobilization and organization of resources.
Echevarria, Antulio J. II. "American Operational Art, 1917-2008
Operational Art in the 20th Century has seen progression toward prefection of first grammar. US operational planning and execution focused too much on war's first grammar, which is why the classic definition of operational art is also problematic. It is not enough merely to 'design' and 'link' operations, as the classic definition holds, with only one grammar in mind. Contemporary operational art requires mastering two grammars.
First Grammar is conventional war, which the US Army has nearly perfected
Second Grammar is unconventional war, which has suffered from focus on first grammar.
Bousquet, Antoine. The Scientific Way of Warfare
Its central claim is that throughout the modern era the dominant corpus of scientific ideas has been reflected in the contemporary theories and practices of warfare in the Western world"
Synthesis of technology, scientific thought, and society results in the way of war.
Clock = mechanism
synch movements, discipline, orders, ballistics and fortifications
Engine = thermodynamics
motorized, improved weapons, industrial
Computer = cybernetics
Science of C2 will control chaos
Network = chaoplexity
Decentralization and autonomy to counter
Osinga, Frans. - Science, Strategy, and War: The Strategic Theory of John Boyd
Tempo and Variety, not speed
Strategic level is slower for effects to occur
Tactical level is speed relative to enemy

Interaction and Isolation

Attack enemy's mental, moral, and physical

pervasive uncertainty as prime characteristic of life,
the essence of combining analysis with synthesis, marrying induction and deduction,
the importance of novelty, mismatches and creativity,
and the requirement to combine multiple perspectives to form adequate orientation patterns
Daase, Christopher. "Clausewitz and Small Wars."
Despite the emergence of small wars and terrorism, but because of the changing forms of war, Clausewitz and his thinking is relevant today

Provides the means for a superior conceptualization of political violence that allows describing historical and recent changes of war, including the emergence of guerrilla warfare and terrorism.

Offers theoretical insights into the dynamics of defence and offence which help to explain why certain actors apply certain strategies and tactics.

Allows reflecting on the effects of war on both actors and structures and helps to explain why big states often loose small wars
Heuser, Beatrice. "Small Wars in the Age of Clausewitz
Historical context is crucial in order to truly understand what the writer is trying to convey.

Clausewitz stands at the watershed of 2 forms of 'Small War'

There was a shift in meanings of the terms
Small War
Partisan War
People's War

People's War was independent of political ideology
Schmitt, Carl. Theory of the Partisan
Generally speaking, civil war is military conflict between two or more approximately equal political governments for sovereignty over people and territory native to both, whereas revolution is a change, not necessarily by force or violence, whereby one system of legality is terminated and another is constituted within the same country
Criteria for a partisan:
increased mobility of active combat
increased intensity of political engagement
the idea is that a partisan, and especially a revolutionary, are willingly operating outside the law. The revolutionary is outside the law because they oppose a government, which considers them criminals. The result is that both sides it is a battle to destroy the other side - for there is no way to deal with illegal actors on the other side.
Kalyvas, Stathis. The Logic of Violence in Civil War
Kalyvas proposes a theory that selective violence in civil wars is the result of a rational decision making process by the actors involved to exert control during civil wars. In the section we read, the primary focus is on developing the linkage between support, control, and the role of violence (particularly selective violence).
Civil War: armed conflict between two parties within the geographical limits of what was previously one sovereign power. This widens the definition to include foreign occupation.
Civil wars are inherently brutal, violence is a result of the nature of the war
Political parties seek to establish support from the population. However, most people do not have an ideological link to either party, they simply want to survive.
To gain support, the party must exert control. With control, the instinct of survival will provide the collaboration required (intelligence on identify individuals) to win.
Military forces can provide control, but requires significantly more numbers to control the entire country than most are able to generate. Incumbents typically control urban areas and insurgents rural areas because urban areas are easier to control (not ideologically linked)
Because military cannot control entire area, they use coercion to gain control. This is best done through selective violence.
Selective violence: requires the ability to identify collaborators with enemy, which can only happen if locals have incentive to cooperate. Thus some level of control is first required.
Biases: Partisan, political, selection, overaggrigation,
Herbst, Jeffrey. States and Power in Africa
The fundamental assumption undergirding this study is that states are only viable if they are able to control the territory defined by their borders. Control is assured by developing an infrastructure to broadcast power and by gaining the loyalty of citizens.

The fundamental problem facing state-builders in Africa has been to project authority over inhospitable territories that contain relatively low densities of people.

Herbst argues that Europeans are territory based view of control while Africa is population based view of control

Herbst argues that leaders confront three sets of issues when building their states:

Leaders face cost when trying to expand their authority.
Nature of costs that leaders face depends on how far power is being broadcast.
Definition of "territorial control" defines extent of consolidation of rule/power

Boundary Politics- broadly defined as attempts by states to mediate pressures from the international system through the use of buffer mechanisms to maximize their authority over territory.
States can and do lower the costs of controlling a territory by developing a set of boundary institutions that insulate them from possible economic and political threats.

State Systems
Focus on the state systems that successive African leaders constructed in order to further their own efforts at state consolidation.
Mintzberg, Henry. The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning
Strategy is a plan, a pattern, position, and perspective
Strategy = intended, deliberate, unrealized, emergent, and realized
Umbrella Strategy = Operational Approach
Design School of Strategy Formation
Emergent Strategy is refined by feedback mechanisms to achieve intended results
Mintzberg, Rise and fall of Strategic Planning
p. 7. Formal definitions of planning (per Mintzberg)
1) Planning is future thinking (p. 7)
2) Planning is controlling the future (p. 7-8) Planning is the design of a desired future
3) Planning is decision making (p. 9.)
4) Planning is integrated decision making (p. 11) Plan(ning) refers to an integrative hierarchically organized action in which various kinds of decisions are functionally ordered.
5) Planning is a formalized procedure to produce an articulated result, in the form of an integrated systems of decisions. (p. 12) "a formalized, integrated process"

p. 24. Based on Forms of strategy discussion (and diagram), there are:
Intended strategies
Deliberate strategies
Unrealized strategies
Emergent strategies
Realized (actual) strategies

p. 27. One person's strategy is another's tactics- that what is strategic depend on where you sit (a business, not DoD definition)

p. 29. "Our conclusion is that "strategic planning" cannot be synonymous with strategy formation...the that planning may have less to do with strategy making than is often claimed..."
Dolman, Everett Carl. Pure Strategy
The outcome of battles and campaigns are ever-present variables within the strategist's plan, but victory is a concept that has no meaning there. The pure strategist accepts that war is but one aspect of social and political competition, an ongoing interaction that has no finality. Strategy therefore connects the conduct of war with the intent of politics. It shapes and guides military means in anticipation of a panoply of possible coming events. In the process, strategy changes the context within which events will happen.

definition of strategy, a plan for continuing advantage

purpose of military strategy is to link military means to the political aim. The purpose of operational strategy is to contest or gain command of the medium of battle (land, sea, air, space, or information), which allows the tactical and political aims to remain at odds logically but to converge practically Military power is but one of the means by which the political object is pursued. Land, sea, air and space, and information power are sub-domains of military power.

The ability to describe a system by breaking it down into its constitutive parts. And vice versa, is linear reductionism. Where the whole is less or greater than the sum of its parts, we find nonlinear systems.
Walter McDougall, "The Constitutional History of U.S. Foreign Policy: 222 Years of Tension in the Twilight Zone
Old Testament: Four great traditions shaped US foreign relations during the 19th century: Exceptionalism, Unilaterialism, an American System, and Expansion.
Exceptionalism- Founders were realists who understood human nature required power to be checked. Naïve, reckless, or arrogant behavior put America at risk. Exceptional because of liberty, unity and independence at home, thus foreign policy was to prevent corrupting influence of abroad, not isolationist
Unilateralism- Warning against gratuitous meddling in European affairs lest Americans harm their own interests, surrender their freedom of action, invite attacks from abroad, and forfeit the geographic advantages that a beneficial God had bestowed.
American System- Invocation of an American System of republics. Monroe Doctrine
Expansion- Manifest Destiny, North America was off-limits to new foreign colonial claims. Liberty and opportunity that distinguished America could not be passed to future generations without territorial growth.