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Reasoning & Decision making
Terms in this set (15)
=decision is like a gamble; use probabilities to ascertain [objective] value of a decision (relative to its costs)
=Value of a choice is calculated based on the Subjective Utility/probability RELATIVE to some reference point
=Displeasure associated with loss is much greater than the pleasure associated with a commensurate gain, often making people loss averse.
Asymmetry of Gains/Losses
=people can't help but perform errors in reasoning, even when they know about the errors
=When people base a decision on whatever information is most readily available from memory
based on what 3 things?
=based on news we had recently heard
=dread risk of dramatic events
=overestimate the safety of a car we know well
Do more words start with K, or have K as a 3rd letter?
most respondents said?
start with K
Is death more likely from syphilis or asthma?
Which is more statistically likely—death from vaccinations or contraceptives?
=Base decision on whether elements of a problem match prototypical features for some category—similarity-based decision making
=Representativeness heuristic (prototypes) overrides statistical information
ignoring base rate
Even when given base rate information explicitly, we are subject to the ___________
In a room there are 30 engineers and 70 lawyers. Jack is in the room; he is 45 years old, generally conservative, careful and ambitious. He shows no interest in political issues, and spends most of his free time on his hobbies--home carpentry, sailing, and mathematical puzzles. Is it more likely that Jack is an engineer or a lawyer?
more respondents selected engineers
Not complying with the statistical notion that Pr(2 events/traits) is always less than the Pr(1 event)
e.g., safest if you eat a bologna sandwich while flying
Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. Which of the following is most likely?
most respondents selected bank teller AND feminist
Sets with similar terms
Decision Making (FOPAC) 2016
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