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Murder During the murder trial of O. J. Simpson, Alan Dershowitz, an advisor to the defense team, stated on television that only about of men who batter their wives actually murder them. Statistician I. J. Good observed that even if, given that a husband is a batterer, the probability he is guilty of murdering his wife is , what we really want to know is the probability that the husband is guilty, given that the wife was murdered. Good estimates the probability of a battered wife being murdered, given that her husband is not guilty, as . The probability that she is murdered if her husband is guilty is 1, of course. Using these numbers and Dershowitz's probability of the husband being guilty, find the probability that the husband is guilty, given that the wife was murdered. Source: Nature.