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does terrorism work?

Terms in this set (8)

what does abrahm's find?
studied 28 groups on the state dept list
- coded goals and levels of success
- found only 7% success rate
what are some success stories?
Hezbollah - expelled us from lebanon
AQ- expelled US from persian gulf
FARC - marxist revolution
- Hamas - islamic state in palestine
Tamil tigers - tamil homeland in Sri Lanka
when does terrorism succeed?
when it has limited goals
- evict foreign occupier
- secure limited territorial or political concessions
- more ambitious goals like regime change never achieved
abrahms - why does terrorism fail?
attacking civilians suggest maximalist objectives
- response is to fight
what case study does abrahms use?
during first chechen war, russians viewed chechens as fighting for independence
then - 1999 apartment bombings killed 229 people
- view shifted, chechens viewed as terrorists and the "only" response was to fight
example: US and 9/11
- no real discussion of AQ demands, despite clear demands from bin laden
- no rational response but to fight
rose - madrid train bombings
rose and murphy argue that bombings swung election in favor of socialist candidate, so you can't ignore the success of ad hoc groups and the impact they have on governments and the population
what does fortna find?
terrorism most used in secessionist and transforming society campaigns
- rebel groups that use terrorism less likely to be victorious, more likely to have ongoing or fizzling conflict
- never have achieved outright victory
- terrorism may prolong the conflict but isn't as useful for achieving goals
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