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Lecture 2 Terms

Terms in this set (15)

Science
the attempt to come up with systematic and coherent descriptions of how the world works
Scientific Method
the approach whereby scientists decide among possible competing explanations on the basis of observations and predictions
The Scientific Method
1. Assemble a model of how a particular phenomenon works
2. Develop predictions based on that conceptual model
3. Test predictions by collecting observations (data) through correlational or manipulative experiments
Deduction
From general to specific
1. All of the sea turtles in Kailua Bay are green sea turtles
2. I sampled this particular sea turtle in Kailua Bay
3. This particular sea turtle is a green sea turtle
Induction
From specific to general
1. Sampled 100 sea turtles in Kailua Bay
2. All 100 of these sea turtles are green sea turtles
3. All of the turtles in Kailua Bay are green sea turtles
Strong Inference
Is a highly systematic approach designed to exclude possible explanations using conclusive experiments.
Takes advantage of the relationships among possible hypotheses and the body of existing knowledge.
Testing of sequential hypotheses.
"Standing on the back of giants"
Take-Home Lessons
Phenomena must be testable.
Hypotheses must be mutually exclusive (focus on critical discerning predictions).
Testing sequence does not affect outcome.
Axiom
A maxim widely accepted on its intrinsic merit.
A statement accepted as true. A postulate.
An established rule, principle or self-evident truth.
Dogma
something held as an established opinion. a tenet put forth as authoritative without adequate grounds.
P-value
Probability of obtaining the observed data (pattern) due to random variation (sampling).
What factors determine the P-value?
Sample size
Signal strength
Noise
Type 1 Error
rejection of a true null hypothesis
occurs at rate equal to chosen alpha rate (0.05; 1 /20)
often caused by violation of test assumptions
Type 2 Error
acceptance of a false null hypothesis
occurs at rate of Beta = (1 - power)
low power due to small sample size, measurement error
False Positive
rejection of a true null hypothesis False Positive
False Negative Error of Falsity: Support more complex relationship than random association. Mis-direct future researchers.
False Negative
acceptance of a false null hypothesis
Error of Ignorance: Support notion of random association. Fail to find difference / response - management implications
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