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GOV 312L Exam 2 Review
Terms in this set (68)
What is politics (as defined in lecture)? What are the two central components of this definition?
-Use of authority to allocate scarce resources=means of coordinating social behavior
○ Authority: capacity to direct social behavior; often relies on coercion: capacity to impose costs; but presence of authority also rests on some legitimacy
○ Allocation of scarce resources: implies some degree of competition or social conflict over that allocation
How does violence shape political order? Give an example of how the use of coercion by a legitimate authority helps to establish political order.
-Political order: stable patterns or regularities of social behavior induced by authority relationships and/or coercion
-critical role for coercion and violence in politics
○ violence is often necessary
○ ex: 6th street at 2 am
RECAP: How does violence shape political order?
• Politics as the use of authority to allocate scarce resources
• Authority nested in capacity for coercive use of violence, but presence of authority requires that coercion is legitimate; Coercion can be used to enforce and to predate
• Fundamental dilemma of politics: once endow some organization with capacity to use violence to enforce its orders, how regulate, limit, or legitimate its use?
• Implications for US as indispensable nation: world needs to US to confront predators (e.g. World War I and World War II) but can us observe limits on use of force (e.g. Iraq 2003)?
What were the main pillars of the peace settlement after World War I? How did President Woodrow Wilson influence the international system in 1919?
The three main pillars of the peace settlement after WWI are: National Self Determination, Support for Democracy, and Collective Security in The League of Nations. Wilson influenced the international system after the war by implementing these pillars.
What were the main elements of the peace settlement after World War II and how did the United States influence the political order after 1945?
After WWII, the main elements of the peace settlement were now: Democracy promotion, Collective Security through NATO, Creation of new International Organizations such as the World Bank and the UN, and Net international economic order around promoting Globalization. Organizations like the UN and NATO were put in place to help maintain order after WWII. These institutions helped to resolve the central dilemma of politics by balancing power among great powers.
What explains the absence of great power war since the mid-20th century?
There has been economic interdependence and changing value of each respective territory.
Globalization reduced the need to expand, this was done by equalizing access to economic resources of territory and this eliminated a lot of the need to compete by working together like U.S.-China. The use of Nuclear Deterrence eliminates the chances of a military invasion and this has frozen territorial boundaries. Unipolarity of the U.S. has caused the U.S. to be so far ahead in military terms than the nearest competitors, this allows the U.S. to see and adjust to most threats.
What is the coercion dilemma? How does it shape the construction of a domestic political order? how does this same dilemma frame the problem of war and political order in the international order?
The Coercion Dilemma is when you provide individuals or political orgs with the capacity to use force, you also grant them the capacity to exploit that power for their own gain.
It shapes the construction because the ability to enforce rules also means the government can use violence for its own means
How did the U.S. address the international variant of the coercion dilemma after World War II? What role did international organizations play in constraining US military power
The US bound its own power into institutions like NATO. The US was forced to gain approval of nations with different national interests because Western Europe was too weak to fight the Soviet threat so the security responsibilities were given to the US
According to Ikenberry, why was the 2003 invasion of Iraq so problematic for the constraint of US military power?
Allies and the UN said no to fighting Iraq but the uS still did which took away from the legitimacy of these institutions containing US and of US power outside of the US.
Made some questions if US's power was regulated regardless if the world needs uS military power
What are some of the fundamental attributes of the bargaining model of war? What does it suggest are the primary components for any explanation of war?
An assumption by the bargaining model: All war is costly
The explanation for war is that states fail to reach/sustain mutually beneficial settlements because of two main reasons:
-private info coupled with incentives to misrepresent lead (one side might offer less while other side might try to secure greater division of issue through war)
-private info coupled with incentives to misrepresent lead
-commitment problem: difficulties associated with contracting over time
What is a great power? What characteristics help differentiate them from other states in the international system?
A great power is a subset of states in the international system
A great power has more influence and more resources
-larger population and extensive territory
-large economy which generates leverage
-higher military capabilities
How do great powers structure international politics after great power wars like WWI and WWII? Describe the main changes in the international system that occur in the aftermath of these wars and the peace settlement that follows
Wars fought by great powers alter the structure of international politics and by transforming the main actors.
Victors of war write the rules of the new system and shape its long-term sustainability
-set requirements for membership and redraw territorial boundaries: statehood and sovereignty
-Regime type of new members (US promotes democracy after 1919, 1945, 1999)
-Distribution of military power
-enforcement mechanisms (reparations, league of nations)
-Divisions of territory among surviving great powers changes as well
-important: shapes degree of satisfaction with new status quo and long term sustainability of the system
What is polarity? What are the differences between unipolar, bipolar, and multipolar divisions of power?
Polarity derives the relative distribution of capabilities among great powers
-unipolarity-one great power is much stronger than others (Post cold war era of American domination (1991-2008))
-bipolarity- 2 great powers dominate the global order (Cold war era of global competition between the US and the Soviet Union (1945-1999))
-multipolarity- military power is diffused among four or more great powers (decades leading up to WWI)
How did bipolarity affect the competition between the US and Soviet Union during the cold war?
Bipolarity stabilized the coalitions between US and Soviet Union. It also prioritized the competition between US and Soviet Union.
What are some characteristics of empires and colonies?
An empire is a political organization in which a powerful state (usually a great power) constructs a hierarchal political relationship with a weaker political org (colony)
-appoints local governing officials, therefore limited local participation/democracy
-colonial political stability often rests on military force
-rule rests on mix coercion and legitimacy (which tends to be more limited)
What are some of the global political consequences of empire?
Institutionalization of exploitation and inequality.
-economic inequality, racism, and political exclusion
It also leads to great power competition and war
How would the logic of the commitment problem explain the outbreak of WWI and WWII?
In WWI Russia couldn't commit to respect Austro-Hungarian influence in Balkans
In WWII there was growing military strength in Germany. Hitler demanded new concessions that repeatedly revised treaty of Versailles in 1930s
How did the terms of the Versailles contribute to WWII?
It was harsh imposed peace on Germany. Significant economic (reparations), political, military, and territorial losses.
It promoted its own undoing by destabilizing German domestic politics and activating harsh conservation backlash
Is (or was) the US an empire? What characteristics would qualify the US as an empire?
The US was once an empire. It was a world power with it's own colonies (Philippines, Puerto Rico, and Guam)
Why has there been a natural tension between imperial and anti-imperial tendencies in US foreign policy? Discuss some examples of this tension in the 20th century
The US was a former colonial holding of Great Britain but was also an empire.
-Woodrow Wilson supported national self determination in WWI settlement
-Franklin Roosevelts resistance to spheres of influence after WWII
-Cold War and the emergence of an American sphere of influence.
Describe the conflict between imperialists and anti-imperialists during the Spanish-American war. What were the arguments for and against empire during this period?
Multiple American leaders felt differently about imperialism in the US.
Imperialist case for empire:
-protecting US hegemony in W. hemisphere
-way to extend uS military power. Colonies could provide military bases
-way to extend US economic power. Colonies could provide markets and natural resources
-Colonies defy American ideals of self-government
-competition over colonies encourages war between great powers
-military buildup associated with colonialism abroad could undermine American democracy at home
How does a state demonstrate political credibility in nuclear deterrence?
A state can demonstrate credibility in nuclear deterrence by:
-issuing public statements in democracies that would be politically costly to reverse
-having capabilities such as intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine launched ballistic missiles
-protecting allies with extended deterrence
What is the moral hazard problem? How can this concept help to explain how the prospect of intervention from a third party (like the United States) might actually increase incentives for combatants to take risks that could prolong civil conflicts?
n general the moral hazard problem means that because one side expects an insurance mechanism to come in and save them, they engage in riskier behavior than they would have otherwise, since they have something to fall back on.
It can create incentive to put civilian population in more danger in order to call upon international intervention as insurance if one side is losing.
mechanism of insurance (third party) actually encourages risky behavior that trying to deter
-Often talked about in context of financial bailouts
For secessionist groups that are losing civil war, can create incentive to leave civilian population vulnerable so a 3rd party will help
Genocide or attacks on civilians can prompt international intervention
What were some of the political goals motivating Russian interference in the 2016 elections?
-Delegitimizing the American system of governance
.-Stoke domestic political conflict along racial, partisan, religious, and regional lines
-Undermine Clinton candidacy and her legitimacy in office (if she would have won)
-Support Trump (also by attacking Rubio and Cruz)
-Clinton presidency viewed as continuation of Obama presidency. Obama hurt Russian economy with NATO negotiations and economic sanctions. Trump seemed more favorable towards economic rapport.
Why did Russia intervene in Ukraine in 2014?
Ukraine's movement towards European Union was a big trigger. Annexation of Crimea
What were the primary findings of the Mueller report on Russian interference in the 2016 elections?
1) No conspiracy or coordination with Russia
-Barr: The special counsel did not find that the Trump campaign or anyone associated with it conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in these efforts, despite multiple offers from Russian affiliated individuals to assist Trump campaign.
2) No conclusion of obstruction of justice
-Mueller: While this report does not conclude that the President committed a crime, it does not exonerate him
-Barr: The special counsel therefore did not draw a conclusion -one way or the other- as to whether the examined conduct constituted obstruction
Summarize the arguments made by McFaul. Why did the relationship between Russia and the US deteriorate after 2011? What are the lines of contention in this idealogical conflict?
-Putin failed to build an efficient state bureaucracy that is responsive to political leadership. Putin also has curators significant autonomy
- increasing the potential for mistakes. What happens after Putin dies or leaves?
-US and Russia in deeper ideological conflict.-No change in bilateral relations under significant internal political change in Russia.
-Adopt policy strategic patience that constrains or limits growth of Russian influence.
-Russia is threatened by democracy
- Because no change in bilateral relations under internal political change in Russia (Putin gone)
-Tighten up US election security, Strengthen NATO, Reaffirm alliance relationships particularly in east Asia, Limit Russian economic influence in Europe
What. is the power transition theory? What is the commitment problem in this situation and how does it help to explain the incentives for declining powers to launch a preventive war against rising powers?
Power Transition theory is structure of international politics set by the rise and fall of leading powers; peace and growth when ascending vs. instability and conflict during decline. Shift of power raises risk of war between the ascending and declining powers.
Declining state launches a preventive war because rising state cant commit to preserve SQ system and the benefits it creates
How can power transition theory be used to understand the evolution of the maritime disputes in the South China sea?
US-China relations- U.S. as the declining power and china as the rising power
-China's economic status is gradually improving overtime, even though its lower than the U.S. trajectories predict it will surpass the U.S. economy soon
-Significant change in economic freedom, but still maintain limits on political expression. China has become less communist and more capitalist (degree of gov't control over the economy), still an authoritarian regime
-political changes: income inequality becomes a major problem due to growth
According to the Mastro reading, what do Chinese leaders want for their country when it comes to global hegemony? How has China managed its growing international influence?
Chinese leaders not interested in seeking global hegemony as defined as: web of global alliances, a global military presence, leadership in international organization, and spreading its form of government around the world
Instead China wants to displace rather than replace the US as hegemon, especially in Asia.
China has managed its rise in power without provoking opposition by subtly increasing its power
-In the political realm it has set up hundreds of confucian institutes in foreign countries to get out its own narrative.
-Also manages its image abroad through espionage by spying on Chinese student and professors studying abroad to monitor what they say about their country
-In the economic realm China uses its economic power through enormous foreign investments in infrastructure, particularly in developing countries
-unlike western governments, this investment doesn't come with conditions like economic reform but China does expect recipent countries to follow the Chinese line on priorities like the non-recognition of Tawiwan
-In the military realm China has used subtle and non threatening moves to enhance its military power thus avoiding opposition form US
How should the US respond to Chinese in the South China Sea?
According to Mastro, US shouldn't confront China at every turn but instead build its power and influence in other regions outside of China. In doing so, the US must enhance rather than retreat from the liberal international order it build after WWII
Why do states fail to come to a peace settlement even though it will make all parties better off than if they continue fighting? Explain how the bargaining model of war helps to explain this phenomenon
Private info coupled with incentives to misrepresent lead one side to offer sufficient concessions; other side to try and secure greater division on issue through war and commitment problems: difficulties associated with contracting over time.
In bargaining model all war is costly but countries cant get over this and come to a settlement because of the commitment problem.
Why is commitment and how does it contribute to continuation of conflict? What are the sources of the commitment problem?
Commitment problem is the inability to side with rising power to promise or commit to abide by the terms of any settlement indefinitely. Because of this, groups fight if they think adversary will demand revisions in the future. It is often activated by shifts in distribution of military power. It creates the expectation that the agreement is not self enforcing and more powerful power will demand more in the future.
What are some of the factors that activate commitment problems and civil wars within states?
It is activated by a shift in the distribution of military power or political power. The shift can be cause by withdrawal of support from external patron, democrazation, emergence of social movement.
-Ex: American and soviet withdrawal after the Cold War
- US withdrawal from Iraq
-minority tempted to secede, majority fights to preserve unity
How can intervention from a third party (Like uS) help to resolve the commitment problem?
External state has self-interest in upholding and is willing to use force if necessary and can signal resolve to stay the course
According to the reading for this module, What is the moral hazard problem? How can this concept help to explain how the prospect of intervention from a third party (Like the US) might increase incentives for combatants to take risks that could prolong civil conflicts?
Moral Hazard problem means that because one side expects an insurance mechanism to come in and save them they engage in riskier behavior they normally would since they have something to fall back on.
-It can create an incentive to put civilian population in more danger in order to call upon international intervention as insurance if one side is losing
According to the reading for this module, what is the responsibility to protect doctrine? Explain the relationship between the responsibility to protect doctrine and national soveriengty
The Responsibility to protect doctrine states that sovereignty is premised on a relationship of government to afford basic minimal protection of physical integrity rights to their citizens. In other words along with with sovereignty comes an obligation to provide reasonably safe environments for their citizens so that people can live their lives without fear of death and injury from wanton violence. the doctrine states that when governments are unwilling or unable to provide such basic protections, they forfeit their other sovereign rights of non-intervention and self determination
What is the commitment problem and how does it contribute to the continuation of conflict? What are the sources of the commitment problem?
Commitment problem is the inability to reach a settlement because neither of the two parties believes the compromise will be held and the stronger part will demand more in the future, therefore the fighting continues.
Sources were Western annexations, failure of KS-NE act , Lincoln election and North's growth in strength
According the the logic of the bargaining model of war, what role did slavery play in the outbreak of the US civil war?
There was a compromise to prevent war but the commitment problem arose when Wester expansion took place and the territorial annexations from war with Mexico, Missouri as slave state would throw off the balance.
What are some of the factors that helped to shift the distribution of political power between Northern and souther slaveholding states in the decades before the US civil war?
It was accentuated by industrialization (85-90% of industrial capacity in N. states), faster population growth in the North, limited capital accumulation in south. Greater industrial capacity has important implications for military power. Western expansion risks altering balance of political power between north and south
What factors created political sympathies in Great Britain for the confederacy? How might British diplomatic recognition of the confederacy have enhanced the bargaining leverage of the confederacy in the union?
Close economic relation with south. Common economic interests to preserve cotton trade led to Britain recognizing confederacy. South believed this would facilitate economic and military aid from Europe and allow it to sustain war
How did the threat of British diplomatic recognition for the confederacy contribute to the escalation of the US civil war in the summer of 1861?
Lincoln was afraid diplomatic recognition from Britain would offer international legitimacy to the confederacy allowing confederate government to consolidate its political power and make secession permanent and federal government would have to fight confederacy government aligned with Great Britain. Britain told Lincoln that the foot-war could potentially stop Britain from recognizing confederacy placing pressure on Lincoln to stop confederacy encouraging him to start war
Who are the primary combatants (Warring sides) in the Syrian civil war? How is the Syrian civil war related to ISIS?
Syrian government - backed by Iran and Russia
rebels- backed by US and Turkey
------------ Extra info:
ISIS vs larger international coalition (US, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Syrian Kurds, Syria
Turkey vs Syrian Kurds
What are some of the political controversies triggered by the withdrawal of US military forces from Syria
It is believed ISIS cold rebuild in as little as nine months. It could then try to avenge the loss of it's base (which is not necessary for ISIS to function)
Jim Mattis (Secretary of Defense) resigned because of Trump's decision to withdraw.
How have nuclear weapons influenced US foreign policy since 1945?
US moved from defense to deterrence. Planned on stopping more countries from acquiring nuclear weapons
What is the nuclear revolution?
refers to the belief that the mutual vulnerability created by nuclear weapons has brought about a fundamental shift in the nature of warfare, and even of statecraft itself.
How have nuclear weapons complicated the provision of national security?
States can no longer rely on defensive mobility or shields. Incredibly difficult to shoot down missile so it can't rely on defense anymore (no matter how big your military is)
What is deterrence?
Utilization of credible threats. Deterrence protects civilian population by preventing adversary from attacking with credible threats to impose costly retaliatory attacks . Secure second strike capabilities is when a state has enough nuclear weapons to absorb a nuclear first strike that targets those weapons and still has enough for second strike. The possession of second strike deters adversary from launching a first nuclear strike
Under what conditions might nuclear weapons paradoxically make war less likely? What is the problem of credibility in nuclear deterrence? Explain why the effectiveness of deterrent threats depends on credibility
Two great powers possessing nuclear weapons prevents war because both sides threaten to use nuclear weapons and inflict costly damage to one another. (Deterrence) Cost of absorbing first strike is too high. Adversary must believe threats in order to be deterred. If adversary does not believe in them, it is more likely to attack. Stability in a nuclear world depends on credibility of coercive threats
Discuss how credibility is based on. capabilities and resolve
Capabilities are the means to carry a=out a threat. Resolve is the will to carry out the threat. A state needs both in order to have adversary believe their threat. If there is no credibility then this will allow for adversary to use nuclear weapons against state.
How does a state demonstrate credibility in nuclear deterrence? Understand measures to demonstrate credibility such as brinkmanship, tripwire forces, "the threat that leaves something to chance" and public announcements made by democracies
-By issuing public statements in democracy that will be too politically costly to reverse
-Having capabilities such as intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine launched ballistic missiles
-protecting allies with extended deterrence
How might national missile defense influence the stability of nuclear deterrence?
NMD is designed to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles. It could undermine an adversary's second strike capability and threaten MAD. It changes the incentives for states with NMD and could incentivize a first strike because it is protected from nuclear retaliation or could make it less cautious because cost for war goes down
What is nuclear proliferation? Why do states acquire nuclear weapons. sometimes at the risk of provoking severe international backlash? Why do nuclear states and the international community want to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons?
Nuclear proliferation is when countries who don't have nuclear weapons seek nuclear weapons.
States pursue nuclear weapons for security, domestic politics, international norma
Domestic instability of nuclear proliferators increases chances of accidents and can spread to terrorist groups, risk of regional nuclear arms race and changes the regional and international status quo
What is terrorism? What are the distinguishing features of terrorist orgs? What is "terrorist's dilemma"?
Terrorism is a contested and political concept that doesnt have a single, universally agreed upon definition. In international relations terrorism is defined as the use or threatened use of violence against non combatants (civilians) in pursuit of political aim.
Terrorism is differentiated from other acts of violence because of the following:
Goals: Terrorism is a political act and perpetrated to achieve a political goal
Target: Terrorism is designed to provoke fear in a wider audience than its immediate victims
Nature of the perpetrator: (Non-state actors or individuals influenced or inspired by them) are the perpetrators of terrorism rather than states
According to the reading for this module what are some of the broader global patters in terrorist attacks? Which countries are usually the main targets of terrorist attacks?
Non-western states are usually the targets ( India, Yemen, Somalia, Philippines, and Sudan) Terrorist usually target environments marked by civil war (easier and able to recruit). Terrorist attacks are usually local
Why do terrorist orgs resort to political violence to achieve their political goals? Compare and contrast psychological and strategic approaches to understanding the reason terrorist resort to violence.
We look at psychological factors that lead to foot soldiers joining terrorist groups.. Most who join are outcasts who want a tight knit group. Terrorists use violence because they can't fight states' military on battlefield so they attack civilians and hope to spread fear among population to pressure states government to change policy in accordance with their demands. More likely to target democracies because population has more influence in policy. Also to provoke overreaction from adversary or to sabotage peace agreements and to achieve political goals.
Using this modules reading, discuss specific uses of political violence by terrorist orgs such as provocation, outbidding, and spoiling potential peace negotiations
Provocation- drawing enemy into protracted military engagement to weaken it by forcing enemy to expend large amount of resources and lose public support.
Outbidding- terrorism arises when two terrorist groups are at competition with one another to prove which group is more ambitious and willing to reach goals
Sabotaging peace settlements is done because terrorist groups might feel like their influence would be threatened or it doesn't meet all of their demands so they sometimes force country to go back to war to halt peace.
What are the dilemmas of counterterrorism? Discuss the costs and benefits of using defensive measures like domestic intelligence and increased security to counter terrorism. What are tradeoffs associated with using external military force abroad to counter terrorism? Why are terrorist orgs hard to deter
Domestic intelligence attempts to uncover and prevent attacks by monitoring and infiltrating terrorist cell phones. It is vital to weakening of terrorist orgs but can lead to surprise attacks when the intelligence is poor
Increased security makes attacks more difficult. (security checks at airports, concerts, large events)
The law enforcement measures pose risks if they are preceived as employing disproportionate force that targets whole ethnic groups rather than the violent extremists.
Domestic intelligence is a problem because it can impinge on citizens privacy and civil liberties.
Increased security is costly and the relative effectiveness of these measures is questioned (might only shift targets of terrorists than prevent)
Terrorists are hard to deter because they are extremely devoted to their goals and they don't have a permanent base that can be destroyed
External military attacks sent message and bolstered public confidence in US government protection but it stretches military too thin giving terrorists opportunities to strike and it also stretches resources
Discuss how the attack on 9/11 led to US invasion of Afghanistan. How did the decision not to distinguish between terrorists and states who harbor them play into this decision? How did considerations of domestic reaction and the possibility of another attack affect this decision
After 9/11 Bush administration immediately considered war.
Not distinguishing from terrorists and states who harbor them opened the door to a lot more threats and also changed mindset of those states who did harbor terrorists
How did we get from the attack on 9/11 and war in Afghanistan to war in Iraq?
There was a lot of justifications for war, it is difficult to pinpoint the main reason
-Weapons of mass destruction
-Saddam Hussein seeking to argment capabilities and would threaten allies in region
-Might give to terrorist
-Had used in the past (deterrence would not work)
Wolflow: settle on this because easier to sell domestically
-Iraq part of Axis of Evil and key enemy
-might harbor terrorists
-Leverage point to transform and democratize Middle East
-democratic Iraq would put pressure on autocratic countries in region to liberalize
-Needed bold solution to long term (two generations) problem of terrorism
-Better to fight terrorist in foreign soil
What are the origins of ISIS? Describe the complicated regional politics behind collection of states that fought to militarily defeat ISIS and take back the territory it held in Iraq and Syria. What are some of the potential scenarios for what comes after the military defeat of ISIS?
Originally began as Al Qaeda in Iraq, predominantly Sunni and was strengthened from Iraqi civil war and exploited civil war in Syria and withdrawal of American troops
According to Malley and Finer, what are some of the long term domestic political consequences in the US from the attacks on 9/11
Security fears of potential terrorist attacks have domestic political consequences. Led to bipartisan consensus that terrorism is main threat that leads to politicians exploiting this for their own gain. Counter terrorism is no prioritized and risks distorting national security policy and makes looming threats less urgent. America is left underprepared for threats NOT associated with terrorism
How did the first presidential debate affect voters support for each candidate in the presidential election?
Biden was seen as less aggressive, Trump highly criticized for frequent interruptions and statements questioning the legitimacy of election. Biden is less aggressive but didn't "close the deal".
Explain how the white house and Trump's doctors handled information regarding the status of the president's health after his Covid-19 infeciton
At first doctors claimed Trump was in good health
Mark M (Chief of staff of Trump administration) came out saying Trump's health was not as great as it was made out to be
More of Trump's doctors came out with a much less positive assessment of Trump's health
This was seen by public as lack of transparency by Trump administration and fueled uncertainty about Trump's condition. Also enforced the doubt that trump was taking the outbreak seriously.
What was the extent of the spread of COVID within Trump's inner circle following his positive test? What is the political significance of this spread?
At least 27 people infected in inner circle. This reinforced the idea that Trump administration and campaign did't follow necessary precautions and worry enough
According to the clip by republican Frank Luntz, how might president Trump's covid diagnosis affect Trump campaign
Focus of campaign has shifted back to COVID which is Biden's strength. It hurt Trump because it was seen that he didn't take outbreak seriously and makes election a referendum on Trump's performance rather than choice between two candidates
Compare and contrast the strategies of the Trump campaign and the Biden campaign in the aftermath of Trumps Covid infection
Trump's strategy for covid has remained unchanged while Biden maintains and ups corona precautions. Biden continues his travel and campaign schedule while Trump can not. Trump still plans on mobilizing his base rather than attracting more supporters. Biden continues to participate in debate, Trump refuses
What is the state of the presidential contest in Texas? How does this compare with the last three presidential electoral cycles? Compare the job approval ratings for Trump among Democrats, Republicans, and independents in Texas. What are the implications of polarization and high mobilization of both Democratic and Republican voters in Texas?
Biden is seen to win campaign if Trump contines to refuse debates. Last three cycles republican candidates won by nearly doubly digits
Now republican candidate and democratic candidate seen as equal with only one point difference
Job approval ratings:
Democrats: Sticking with Biden (>90% disapproval of Trump's job performance)
Republicans: Sticking with Trump (80% agree with Trump)
-14% don't know/undecided
Basically campaign is up to mobilization. Who can get more votes out? For most part, small number of independents will have big impact on election which can swing outcome
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