CADS 5760 final

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color story / palette
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color prudentwait until color has widespread acceptance, majoritycolor loyalstick with the classics instead of choosing fashion colors, laggardstextile forecastingfabric trends tend to emerge before fashion trends because selecting fabrics is one of initial stages of product development, now based on consumer's willingness to buyfabric storyseasonal trends in fabrics including texture, fabric properties, prints, novelty, triminnovation in fabric story comes fromnew fiber, finishing fabric that changes surface, new surface texture, luxury to casual fabricstrade organizationsgroups formed by fiber producers to promote use of their fiberwhat do trade organizations dopresent trend forecasts and participate in yarn and fabric trade shows, provide designers with samples of fabrics for in-house presentations, provide samples to fabric librariesfabric librariescollections of fabric swatches and trim samples representing the scope of what's available for an upcoming seasonwho are fabric libraries maintained by?trade organizations, museums, fashion schools, private design consultantsconcept garmentssample garments made to show the potential of the fabrics in the apparel marketprint showsshows featuring original artwork from studios specializing in fabric design, artwork can be purchased to inspire prints, print source New York is a famous market for textile designconverteran industry pro specialized in sourcing base fabrics and using contractors to dye, print, and finish them for apparel manufacturerssamplingwhen a show attendee orders some amount of fabric as a trial ordermajor international trade showspremiere vision Paris, pitting filet, texworld USApremiere visionfeb and sept, most comprehensive and influential fabric trade show in Europe (Paris), 3 dayspitti filatihead in Florence in jan and July for Italian yarn manufacturers, sustainable yarns like cashmere and merino and technical performance yarnstextworld USAin NYC jan and July, done in conjugation with apparel sourcing USA, seminars - trends -forecastingpresentationscan be held by fiber producers, manufacturers, trade associations, forecasting services, require invite and are held in designers showroom or producers studioaestheticparticular taste or approach to the visual qualities of an objectstyledistinctive or characteristic manner of expressionmodernismemerged with tech innovations, avoids reference to past, focuses on sleekness and functional details in performance fabrics, emphasis on unity and harmony in design (Armani 70's jacket, Prada 90's black backpack)postmodernismstyles have higher level of complexity, exaggerated design elements and lower levels of organization, mix symbols from different cultures and times (nostalgia of mud from Vivienne Westwood, JPG "punk")avant-garde"anti-fashion", rejects social values, popular culture and middle-class lifestyle, supports subversive design principles, not usually accepted by people outside fashion world (Maison margiela, mugler, rick Owens)futurismassociated in the mid 60's with a group of French designers inspired by "space race", embraced technology, unusual materials, reflective surfaces (Pierre Cardin)core conceptsculturally expressive ideas that are regularly revisited and reinterpreted across seasons, years, and decadesfashion forecasting requires 3 competenciesknowing how to research fashion developments, ability to identify the visual and symbolic core concepts, expertise to analyze match between fashion developments and marketplace and to synthesize a seasonal forecast for a clienthow do designers incorporate core concepts into their collections?the past, ethnic sources, sexuality, sports, military, religionthe pastdesigners must reinterpret styles in a way that will feel new to consumers, using past Inso requires a lot of research, vera wang uses this in dressesethnic sourcesvery controversial, references can attempt to serve as indication of authenticity and paying homage to the beauty (Ritu Kumar's collections to celebrate Indian heritage)why different designers come up with same design conceptzeitgeist, archives, designer's design, trial balloons, knockoffs, time lags and idea chainsdesigner's designa few designers in each era are highly original talents who experiment with new design directions and are the ones who exceptionally influence other designerstrial balloonsnew fashions, tentative explorations of a new direction or a new lookknockoffclose copy of another designer's original design, but doesn't carry originators labelcounterfeitclose copy of another designer's original, it does try to pass off as authentictrade dresswhen a company seeks legal protection of its original design by attempting to prevent others from profiting from its reputationtime laga period of exposure to a new fashion during which consumers become more aware, interested, and receptive to the new fashion (motorcycle jacket)idea chaina set of linked events that move a phenomenon from a subculture to mainstream (trench coat)cultural appropriationthe use of a culture's symbols, artifacts, or rituals by member of another culture (Native American headdresses)themethe story that the collection tells, each season needs to be new and different but must align with the overarching story and image of the brandqualitative researchlisten to consumers talk or observe consumers in natural settings and report findings of consumer types or categories of behaviorquantitative researchstats, reports, numbers, a set of techniques that uses survey or experimental methods to collect date on a sample group in order to generalize the findings of the populationfocus groupsbased on informal, uncensored talk about products in a group interview setting (8-12 participants) monetary incentive, must meet specific criteriaconsumer segmentbased on age, gender, income level and purchase behavior, analysis of interviews often leads to identification of naturally occurring niche markets and less tangible brand attributesdepth interviewsresearcher interviews a single consumer at a time in a lengthy dialogue aimed at discovering the meaning of products or brands have for consumers of their behavior, more thorough understanding of consumer's experienceprojective techniquesconsumers draw a picture or assemble a collage where sociologists interpret them, can help reveal deeper meaningobservational researchstores may install video tech to monitor consumers shopping patterns, eye tracking on websitesrelational marketinga marketing strategy based on building a learning relationship with customers that is ongoing and interactivecollaborating filteringa process that allows a person to train software by making a series of selections, and the software then is able to match its recommendations to the person's tastessurvey researchrelatively inexpensive, track consumers attitude and opinions, can be used to track changes among consumer segments, validity and reliability of a survey depends on sample size and consumer segment matching of consumerpanel studyasks questions of a group of people over time in order to track changes in consumer attitudes and opinions, done over long period, can provide directional information for forecastingmall intercept researchresearch personnel intercepts customers in mall and invites them to participate in study, offered small incentive, easy to recruit, not geographically representativestyle testingpresenting styles with consumer that can aid early identification of winners and losers, can help to prevent excessive markdownsshowcase or laboratory storeswhere brands present their entire line as a research site for gathering info on what consumers want, text merchandise and visualsconcept storesstores stocked with test merchandise and specifically sited in areas where trendy customers shop, sales become indicators or merging trendsconsumer segmentationdifferentiates between types of consumers based on set of variables (demographics, pyscographics) must fragment into smaller niche markets fast, is expensive, must be precise to get most accurate infomarketers develop segmentation strategy that:appeals directly to that target market, differentiates the product from all others in the category, positions the product as desirable for purchasesilent generation1928-1945, some fought in Korean War, lack of ambition and overly cautious nature = silent, main purchases are: health care and maintenance, remaining independent, eating out, shopping for a bargainbaby boomers1946-1964, post WW2 baby boom result, only generational cohort to be recognized by the US census bureau, first tv generation, control much of nations wealth, value products that make life easier/save timegeneration x1965-1980, experiences higher risk of being children of divorce, kindness for pop culture, difficult to target because pragmatic approach, have falling expectations about media coveragemillennials1981-1996, largest group, expect the best but don't want to pay for it, have higher levels of student debt, first group to want to hold brands socially responsible, introduced share economy like uber, have a habit of show roominggen z1997 and after, most racially diverse generation, globally and socially minded, shaped by change and uncertainty (terror attacks, internet, recession)sales forecasta projection of expected demand given a set of environmental conditions, quantitative and qualitative methods are used to developsales planmanagerial strategy designed to meet or exceed the sales forecastproduct life cycle stagesproduct development, intro, market development, maturity, saturation, declineproduct developmentcompany identifies a market opportunity, product ideas are researched, screened, and developed to satisfy needs of target market, decisions on pricing are made, investment, but no revenueintroductiongoal is to entice customer to try product, sales begin and increase in volume or product will fail, most riskymarket developmentsometimes referred to as growth stage, survived introduction, sales gain momentummaturityproduct/variations become widely available, competition increases, prices declinesaturationsimilar products available, brand preference weakens, substitutes appeardeclinesales decrease or product is withdrawn and replacedsales forecastingmeasure difference between the forecast and what actually happens for the same period in sales, differences must be explained in terms of variations in the environmental conditions or problems with assumptions underlying the forecastsales forecasting requires access to:internal data on sales volume and marketing actions, future plans for marketing and product distribution, external data relevant to their market and information on general economic conditionssales volumedetermine the relative contribution each product or product group makes to the company's revenue by comparing sales for that product or group to total sales volumecompanies can track sales by:SKU, individual product, product familysales forecasting methodstime-series forecasting, correlation or regression forecasting, qualitative techniquestime series forecastinglooks only at patterns in sales history and projects those patterns to make a forecastlevelthe horizontal sales history as if demand was stable with no trend, seasonality, or noise in the sales datatrendthe continuing pattern of increasing or decreasing sales represented as a line or curveseasonalitya yearly pattern of increasing or decreasing sales that corresponds to the seasonnoisethe part of sales fluctuations that appears random and cannot be explained because the pattern has not occurred consistently in the pastfixed model time series techniquesadjusts quickly to changing sales conditions and are appropriate for short-term forecasting, begins with the idea that the forecast for next month' sales is the average of all past sales, the average dampens out fluctuations caused by noise etc, the average does a good job of identifying the level, but ignores trend and seasonalitymoving averagethe forecaster can improve the forecast by using only the most recent data to calculate the average, rather than suing all previous dataexponential smoothingcan provide a way to improve on the moving average by weighting the most recent sales period more heavily in the forecast, while decreasing weight for the older periodsthe census bureauprovides current information about America's people, places, and economy. census conducted very 10 yearsthe bureau of labor statisticsmeasure changes in the labor market, working conditions, and price fluctuationsthe consumer expenditure surveyprovides a profile of consumer's expenditures, income, and demographicsnon-profit organizations for datanational retail federation, cotton incorporated lifestyle monitorsyndicated surveysconducted by a group of sponsors who are interested in the same topic and who share costs and results, can be costly, up-to-date infoqualitative techniques are useful when:fine-tuning forecasts, forecasting for new products when historical data isn't available, forecasting long range or at the corporate levelin-house experta key employee, deep understanding of the market, the consumer, product quality, other environmental facts that impact salesexecutive committeegroups of managers and salespeople or outside experts, sales forecasting meeting may be held that includes directors from finance, marketing, sales, and distribution, group works on needed adjustments to the sales forecastpolling expertsa polling process may be used, a technique is used that attempts to generate the best guess scenarios that represent the consensus of the experts, confidential and remove biaspolling and retailingchain retailers must be sensitive to style and brand shifts (kohl's customer satisfaction in teens went down)controllable factors in influencing a sales forecastmarketing actions and operating practicesuncontrollable factors in influencing a sales forecastdirect: have an obvious and immediate effect on sales competitors, access to channels of distribution indirect: either exert an influence on sales in the mid-range forecast or indicate long-term shiftsmid-range uncontrollable factorsstages in a product life cycle or shifts in the preference characteristics of the target marketLon-range uncontrollable factorschanges in the country's economic situation, or in social, political, or cultural aspectstime-seriesgenerate a forecast based on sales history and are used to identify and forecast trends and seasonal patterns, they pick up quickly on changes, good for short-termcorrelation and regression analysistake external factors into consideration but they do not identify trends or seasonality, not useful for picking up quickly on shifts in consumer attitudes, because it requires more databest course of action for sales forecastinguse time-series forecast for initial projection, correlation or regression analysis to provide a broader perspective on environmental factors, qualitative methods can be used to adjust or fine-tune the quantitative forecastcompetitive analysisthe goal is to see how a brand measures up against similar companies, taking the pulse of companies whose actions may have an impact on decision making, continuous process of collecting information from public sources, public gov't documents and interviews, about gathering datatactical competitive analysiscan be applied to planning tactics, scoping out seasonal direction and planning short-range strategymid-range competitive analysiscan be used to forecast the competitors strategies 2-5 years aheadstrategic planningcan be applied to more long-range strategic planning (business survival and long-term growth)large apparel companies with competitive analysiscorporations with brand tiers, extensions and multiple product lines. important for making far-reaching decisions about business strategymid-sized apparel companies with competitive analysisto survive in business, these companies must strengthen current markets and look for new opportunities. important for identifying market threats and opportunitiesnew business with competitive analysisentrepreneurs need identify potential backers to finance the first critical years of establishing the company's name. important for business planning and to justify investment to venture capitalistspublished sourcesmagazines, newspapers, government documents, company reports, press releases, financial publicationsfieldworkdirect observation and interview with employees, suppliers, customers. and expertssoft informationfrom the popular press, tv shows that mention the company or product, and industry rumorsin-house sourcessales force, customer service, technical support, and other front-line workers who know before managers about the competitors newest products and planscompetitive environment scanprovides the background for decisions which are contingent on the decisions of counterparts at competing firms and anticipates the effect such a decision will have on their own company and the likely response from competitorsmarket scandirect competitors: sell the same general product to the same customers in the same distribution channels indirect competitors: are those that offer alternatives that may redirect a customer away from making a purchasecompetitive advantageoccurs when there is a lack of balance in the marketplace so that one company is favored over another (speed to market, excellent replenishment, close connection with target market)informational competitive advantagea company's executives need an overall understanding of their industry and their competitorsoffensive competitive analysisattempts to discover where competitors are vulnerable and what actions can be taken to capitalize on that temporary advantagedefensive competitive analysisthinking ahead about competitor moves that could threaten the firm's position in the marketdisinformationresults from inaccuracies in published articles, from people misrepresenting their knowledge or expertisecontent analysisinvolves extracting significant data from the sources classifying by topic and reliabilitypattern recognitionhaving background and historical information makes it more likely that and analyst will spot an emerging pattern in the dataanomaliesdata that do not fit expectationsoutlierscases or facts that are unexpectedly high or low in valueomissionsmissing reasons for an action or a business decisionshadow market planninggoal is to have one or more people in a company be so familiar with a competitor that if asked "what if" questions they can answer about that competitors strategy on a continuous an current basis"best practices" benchmarkingcomparing a company with other firms considered "best" in terms of efficient operations, may not be in same industrycompetitive benchmarkingthe firms chosen for comparison are the company's direct competitors. a set of specific measures such as optimal investment, productivity, and product quality is used to create a side-by-side comparison of how the company fits into the competition with other firmssensitizationgoal is to shake up a company's assumptions about its place in relationship to competitors. uses info about competitors to build a sense of urgency in a company by alerting executives to gains by competitors or an emerging challenge from a new companyreverse engineering for productspurchasing and dismantling a product to determine how it was designed and constructed. to evaluate costs and quality of productreverse engineering for servicesif a rival firm has a reputation for better service from sales associates, or some other service, that service can become the target for competitive analysis. involves profiling the steps and attributes of the service and comparing it to the current practices in the industry