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Gov S 312L : Modules 14 (Exam #2)
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What is terrorism?
- Terrorism is the use or threatened use of violence against non-combatants in pursuit of a political aim
What are the distinguishing features of terrorist organizations?
- Goals - It's a political act and perpetrated to achieve a political goal
- Target - Terrorism is designed to provoke fear in a wider audience than its immediate victims
- Nature of the perpetrator - non-state actors (or individuals influenced or inspired by them) are the principal perpetrators of terrorism rather than states
What is the "terrorist's dilemma"?
- Terrorist attacks usually require a lot of planning, but in order to plan and not get detected by authorities, they devolve into cells that allow lower-level people to make decisions that can lead to poor decisions and harm the terrorist organization.
According to the reading for this module, what are some of the broader global patterns in terrorist attacks?
Terrorist attacks and deaths have risen since 9/11, especially in recent years
- However, these attacks have been concentrated in a small set of countries that are undergoing civil conflicts (mostly in South Asia and the M.E)
Terrorist attacks tend to have a local focus. Most terrorist attacks occur close to the organizations' home base
- The vast majority do not target western society and democracies
- The majority of attacks happen in Iraq
- Terrorism concentrated in the Middle East
Which countries are the main targets of terrorist attacks?
- Middle East - Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Syria
- South Asia - India, Philippines, Yemen, Somalia, Sudan, etc.
Why do terrorist organizations resort to political violence to achieve their political goals?
- Because violence is an effective way to influence the behaviors of the states that they oppose and, ultimately, attack.
- Sidenote: Many members of these organizations join because they have rough pasts, have extreme views of good/evil in the world (i.e. they can also have violent views), and the group offers social acceptance.
Compare and contrast psychological and strategic approaches to understanding the reasons terrorists' resort to violence.
- Avoiding direct conflict with national militaries
- Provoking an overreaction from an adversary, making the adversary look bad (ex. Bush's reaction to 9/11)
- Sabotaging potential peace deals
Using this module's reading, discuss specific strategic uses of political violence by terrorist organizations such as provocation, outbidding, and spoiling potential peace negotiations.
- Outbidding - Refers to the use of violent attacks by terrorists to signal a willingness to pay a higher price for something in order to win out over the competition. Violent attacks can be used as an instrument of outbidding when two or more terrorist groups are competing for recruits, resources, and support from the same societal groups.
- Provocation - The use of an attack to force an overreaction from the country they attacked, making the country look bad (ex. Al-Qaeda with 9/11).
- Demonstrative terrorism - Use of attacks to draw new recruits, radicalize some Muslims.
Why attack during peace deals? - Terrorists want to disrupt peace negotiations because they feel their influence or very existence would
What are the dilemmas of counterterrorism?
- A key dilemma of counterterrorism is overreacting. Countries can't overreact or underreact.
Discuss the costs and benefits of using defensive measures like domestic intelligence and increased security to counter terrorism.
- The main cost of using defensive measures like domestic intelligence and increased security to counter-terrorism is it takes away resources and focus on more imminent threats (like Russia or China) and creates a more militarized state, overall.
What are tradeoffs associated with using external military force abroad to counter terrorism?
- When using military force abroad, you can further radicalize Muslims and prove everything that the terrorists claim about you.
Why are terrorist organizations hard to deter?
- They rely on social media and many of their attackers have no direct ties to the group.
Discuss how the attack on 9/11 led to the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan.
- Bush and his advisors immediately discussed war; The option of doing nothing was simply not an option.
- Bush made the decision to link terrorist groups to the states that they reside in on the night of 9/11 (and he discovered that Al Qaeda was given sanctuary in southern Afghanistan by the Taliban).
- On 9/20, Bush addressed Congress and on 10/7, he announced that the US commenced airstrikes.
How did the decision not to distinguish between terrorists and states that harbor terrorists play into this decision?
- No discrimination between Al Qaeda and Afghanistan for harboring them.
- Expanded war against terrorism and reasoning for fighting the Taliban, etc.
How did considerations of domestic reaction and the possibility of another attack affect this decision?
- Concern the US could be attacked again without a chance to respond could lead to declining public confidence in US security and internal disorder.
How did we get from the attack on 9/11 and war in Afghanistan to war in Iraq?
- Saddam was seeking Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs), which was an easy sell to the American public.
- Iraq was part of the "Axis of Evil" and a key enemy of the US.
- The administration could leverage the idea of transforming/democratizing the Middle East.
- They figured it was better to fight terrorists abroad, which justified their preventive action in the middle east (Iraq included).
What are the origins of ISIS?
- Originally began as Al Qaeda in Iraq.
- Predominately Sunni, recruited from former Baathists displaced from Iraqi politics.
- Strengthened via Iraqi civil war that followed the toppling of Saddam Hussein.
- Exploited civil war in Syria and withdrawal of American troops to seize territory in Iraq and Syria in 2014
Describe the complicated regional politics behind the collection of states that fought to militarily defeat ISIS and take back the territory it held in Iraq and Syria.
- Isis exploited Syria's civil war and the power vacuum that was left by the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq to seize territory in Iraq and Syria in 2014.
- Currently in Syria, The US, Russia, the Syrian government, Kurds, Iran, Turkey, Jordan, and Iraq all oppose Isis, even though many of these countries (the US and Syrian gov, Turkey, and Kurds) are fighting each other.
- However, these countries disagree about whether Assad should remain in power, the threat posed by Iranian regional hegemony, and the Kurdish threat to Turkey (or lack thereof). These political disagreements complicate the military cooperation in the fight against ISIS.
According to Malley and Finer, what are some of the long term domestic political consequences in the US from the attacks on 9/11?
- Bipartisan consensus that counterterrorism is at the top of the hierarchy of national security interests.
- Politicians can exploit this fear for domestic political gain by accusing opponents of being too soft on terrorists (ex: Trump & Muslim ban).
- Bureaucratic changes in national security - two tracks: counterterrorism & everything else - if the issue isn't terrorism people are incentivized to cast the issue in counterterrorism terms.
- Long-term national security issues seem less urgent.
- Consensus can be self-reinforcing - too costly to oppose counterterrorism industrial complex, leaves the US unprepared for non-terrorist threats.
- Simplified: Since Democrats and Republicans can both agree on counterterrorism, it can lead to a side claiming their opponent is too soft on terrorism and forcing all politicians to support intensified counterterrorism actions. Authors argue that Trump exploited fears in order to gain support for his Muslim ban.
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Verified questions
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Commercial contractors and home improvement merchants like Lowe's and Home Depot can purchase roofing and siding supplies from Great Plains Distributors Inc. The business owner is curious to know how different factors affect how much fiber-cement siding is sold. In the United States, the corporation operates 26 marketing districts. It gathered data on the following factors in each district: sales volume (in thousands of dollars), advertising spending (in thousands of dollars), the number of active accounts, the number of rival brands, and an assessment of market potential. $$ \begin{array}{|ccccc|} \begin{array}{c} \text { Sales } \\ \text { (000s) } \end{array} & \begin{array}{c} \text { Advertising } \\ \text { Dollars } \\ \text { (000s) } \end{array} & \begin{array}{c} \text { Number of } \\ \text { Accounts } \end{array} & \begin{array}{c} \text { Number of } \\ \text { Competitors } \end{array} & \begin{array}{c} \text { Market } \\ \text { Potential } \end{array} \\ \hline 79.3 & 5.5 & 31 & 10 & 8 \\ 200.1 & 2.5 & 55 & 8 & 6 \\ 163.2 & 8.0 & 67 & 12 & 9 \\ 200.1 & 3.0 & 50 & 7 & 16 \\ 146.0 & 3.0 & 38 & 8 & 15 \\ 177.7 & 2.9 & 71 & 12 & 17 \\ \vdots & \vdots & \vdots & & \\ 93.5 & 4.2 & 26 & 8 & 3 \\ 259.0 & 4.5 & 75 & 4 & 9 \\ 331.2 & 5.6 & 71 & & \\ \hline \end{array} $$ Find the most accurate sales predictors by performing a multivariate regression analysis. Using this, draw a scatter diagram comparing sales volume with each of the independent variables. Comment on the results.
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A student receives a federally backed student loan of $\$ 6,000$ at $3.55$ interest compounded monthly. After finishing college in $2$ years, the student must amortize the loan in the next $4$ years by making equal monthly payments. What will the payments be and what total interest will the student pay? [Hint: This is a two-part problem. First, find the amount of the debt at the end of the first $2$ years; then amortize this amount over the next $4$ years.]
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