AP Stats 5.1/5.2 - Probability


Terms in this set (...)

chance behavior is unpredictable in the _ run but predictable in the _ run
short, long
law of large numbers
if we observe more and more repetitions of any chance process, the proportion of times that a certain outcome occurs approaches a single value (probability)
probability of a coin toss
interpreting probability: what happens in _
MANY trials; also use word "approximately"
probability of an outcome that never occurs
probability of an outcome that happens on every repetition
probability of an outcome that occurs half the time
law of averages
myth that future incomes must make up for an imbalance; wins and losses must balance out
imitation of chance behavior based on a model that accurately reflects the situation
chance devices
cards or dice
steps to designing/carrying out a simulation
state - plan - do - conclude
probability model
consists of some chance process; made up of sample space and probability of each outcome
sample space
(S) list of possible outcomes {,}
any collection of outcomes from chance process; labeled as capital letters; P(A) = fraction/decimal
_ </= P(A) = </= _
0, 1
P(S) (sum of probabilities) = _
how to calculate probability of event A when outcomes are equally likely
P(A) = number of outcomes corresponding to A / total number of outcomes in sample space
complement of event A
probability that event A doesn't occur; A^c; 1 - probability that A does occur
how to calculate whether one or the other event occurs if they have no outcomes in common
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
mutually exclusive/disjoint
when two events have no outcomes in common, thus can never occur together
two-way tables and venn diagrams
help make looking at probability outcomes easier; show events that are/aren't mutually exclusive
"A or B"
one or the other or both
general addition rule
if A and B are two events resulting from the same chance process (aren't mutually exclusive,) use P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
complement on venn diagram
outside of circle
mutually exclusive events on venn diagram
circles don't touch
event of "A and B"; overlap on venn diagram; also written as A∩B
event of "A or B"; entirely shaded on venn diagram; also written as AUB
dice rolls/coin tosses are _
independent; previous trials don't affect later ones
when concluding, always say _
according to THIS simulation
when percents are given as data, use _
decimals (out of 1) instead of percents