30 terms

chance behavior is unpredictable in the _ run but predictable in the _ run

short, long

law of large numbers

if we observe more and more repetitions of any chance process, the proportion of times that a certain outcome occurs approaches a single value (probability)

probability of a coin toss

0.5

interpreting probability: what happens in _

MANY trials; also use word "approximately"

probability of an outcome that never occurs

0

probability of an outcome that happens on every repetition

1

probability of an outcome that occurs half the time

0.5

law of averages

myth that future incomes must make up for an imbalance; wins and losses must balance out

simulation

imitation of chance behavior based on a model that accurately reflects the situation

chance devices

cards or dice

steps to designing/carrying out a simulation

state - plan - do - conclude

probability model

consists of some chance process; made up of sample space and probability of each outcome

sample space

(S) list of possible outcomes {,}

event

any collection of outcomes from chance process; labeled as capital letters; P(A) = fraction/decimal

_ </= P(A) = </= _

0, 1

P(S) (sum of probabilities) = _

1

how to calculate probability of event A when outcomes are equally likely

P(A) = number of outcomes corresponding to A / total number of outcomes in sample space

complement of event A

probability that event A doesn't occur; A^c; 1 - probability that A does occur

how to calculate whether one or the other event occurs if they have no outcomes in common

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

mutually exclusive/disjoint

when two events have no outcomes in common, thus can never occur together

two-way tables and venn diagrams

help make looking at probability outcomes easier; show events that are/aren't mutually exclusive

"A or B"

one or the other or both

general addition rule

if A and B are two events resulting from the same chance process (aren't mutually exclusive,) use P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

complement on venn diagram

outside of circle

mutually exclusive events on venn diagram

circles don't touch

intersection

event of "A and B"; overlap on venn diagram; also written as A∩B

union

event of "A or B"; entirely shaded on venn diagram; also written as AUB

dice rolls/coin tosses are _

independent; previous trials don't affect later ones

when concluding, always say _

according to THIS simulation

when percents are given as data, use _

decimals (out of 1) instead of percents