AP Stats 5.1/5.2 - Probability

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Terms in this set (...)

chance behavior is unpredictable in the _ run but predictable in the _ run
short, long
law of large numbers
if we observe more and more repetitions of any chance process, the proportion of times that a certain outcome occurs approaches a single value (probability)
probability of a coin toss
0.5
interpreting probability: what happens in _
MANY trials; also use word "approximately"
probability of an outcome that never occurs
0
probability of an outcome that happens on every repetition
1
probability of an outcome that occurs half the time
0.5
law of averages
myth that future incomes must make up for an imbalance; wins and losses must balance out
simulation
imitation of chance behavior based on a model that accurately reflects the situation
chance devices
cards or dice
steps to designing/carrying out a simulation
state - plan - do - conclude
probability model
consists of some chance process; made up of sample space and probability of each outcome
sample space
(S) list of possible outcomes {,}
event
any collection of outcomes from chance process; labeled as capital letters; P(A) = fraction/decimal
_ </= P(A) = </= _
0, 1
P(S) (sum of probabilities) = _
1
how to calculate probability of event A when outcomes are equally likely
P(A) = number of outcomes corresponding to A / total number of outcomes in sample space
complement of event A
probability that event A doesn't occur; A^c; 1 - probability that A does occur
how to calculate whether one or the other event occurs if they have no outcomes in common
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
mutually exclusive/disjoint
when two events have no outcomes in common, thus can never occur together
two-way tables and venn diagrams
help make looking at probability outcomes easier; show events that are/aren't mutually exclusive
"A or B"
one or the other or both
general addition rule
if A and B are two events resulting from the same chance process (aren't mutually exclusive,) use P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
complement on venn diagram
outside of circle
mutually exclusive events on venn diagram
circles don't touch
intersection
event of "A and B"; overlap on venn diagram; also written as A∩B
union
event of "A or B"; entirely shaded on venn diagram; also written as AUB
dice rolls/coin tosses are _
independent; previous trials don't affect later ones
when concluding, always say _
according to THIS simulation
when percents are given as data, use _
decimals (out of 1) instead of percents