Terms in this set (32)
The relative investment in your portfolio
The total return earned on your portfolio, accounting for the returns of all of the securities in the portfolio and their weights
Portfolio Expected Return
The return you can expect to earn on your portfolio, given the expected returns of the securities in that portfolio and the relative amount that you have invested in each
Combining different stocks in a portfolio. This eliminates SOME risk. The remaining risk depends upon the degree to which the stocks share common risk
Volatility of a Portfolio
The total risk of the portfolio (measured as a standard deviation)
What happens if you combine airline stocks?
Volatility is reduced only slightly compared to the individual stocks.
What happens if you combine airline and oil stocks?
Volatility is reduced below that of either stock.
- Measuring stocks' co-movement
- The degree to which the stocks share common risk
- Ranges from -1 to +1
To find the risk of the portfolio, we need to know:
1. The risk of the component stocks
2. The degree to which they move together
We want assets with a ________ correlation, and thus _______ risk.
A correlation of ______ is ideal, yet hard to come by.
The sum of everything we own.
Market Portfolio concepts:
- The sum of all investors portfolios must equal the portfolio of of all risky securities in the market.
- The market portfolio is the portfolio of all risky investments, held in proportion to their value.
- Thus, the market portfolio contains more of the largest companies and less of the smallest companies.
A portfolio whose return should track the underlying, unobservable market portfolio
-The most common market proxy portfolio
-Reports the value of a particular portfolio
- Ex: DOW Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500
- Only represents a small fraction (approx. 10 %) of the number of public firms.
- Represents a large fraction (approx. 65%) of total market capitalization of public firms.
Symbol for the measure of risk
Market Risk and Beta
- We compare a stock's historical returns to the market's historical returns to determine a stock's beta (B)
- The sensitivity of an investment to fluctuations in the market portfolio
- Use excess returns= security returns - the risk free rate
- The percentage change in the stock's return that we expect for each 1% change in the market's return
Data estimates of Beta
- Most use 2 to 5 years of weekly or monthly returns
- Most use the S&P 500 as the market portfolio
The beta of the overall market portfolio is _____ .
Differences in Beta
- Many industries and companies have betas higher/ lower than 1
- Differences in betas by industry are related to the sensitivity of each industry's profits to the general health of the economy
Higher standard deviation = ________ total risk
(Total risk is measured with standard deviation)
Higher Beta = _________ systematic risk
(Systematic risk is measured with Beta)
Cost of Equity Capital
-The best available expected return offered in the market on a similar investment.
-To compute the cost of equity capital, we need to know the relation between the stock's risk and its expected return.
The CAPM Equation Relating Risk to Expected Return
- Only systematic risk determines expected returns
- Firm-specific risk is diversifiable and does not warrant extra return.
The expected return on any investment comes from:
- A risk-free rate of return to compensate for inflation and the time value of money, even with no risk of losing money.
- A risk premium that varies with the systematic risk
= Risk-free rate + Risk Premium for Systematic Risk
"Risk Premium for Systematic Risk"
-The CAPM says that the expected return on any investment is equal to the risk-free rate of return plus a risk premium proportional to the amount of systematic risk in the investment.
-The risk premium is equal to the market risk premium times the amount of systematic risk present in the investment, measured by its beta (βi).
-We also call this return the investment's required return.
The Security Market Line
- The CAPM implies a linear relation between a stock's beta and its expected return.
- This line is graphed in Figure 12.9(b) as the line through the risk-free investment (with a beta of zero) and the market (with a beta of one); it is called the security market line (SML).
- There is no clear relation between a stock's standard deviation (volatility) and its expected return
- The relation between risk and return for individual securities is only evident when we measure market risk rather than total risk.
- Y-axis: EXPECTED RETURN
-X- axis: BETA
The CAPM and Portfolios
- We can apply the SML to portfolios as well as individual securities.
- The market portfolio is on the SML, and according to the CAPM, other portfolios (such as mutual funds) are also on the SML.
- The expected return of a portfolio should correspond to the portfolio's beta.
Summary of the Capital Asset Pricing Model
- Investors require a risk premium proportional to the amount of systematic risk they are bearing.
- We can measure systematic risk using beta (β)
- The most common way to estimate beta is to use linear regression - the slope of the line is the stock's beta
The more Beta risk we have, the more _______ risk we have.
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