PSY 340 Module 8 Quiz

Which of the following best describes probabilistic decision making?

- It's impossible to ever know whether a decision was good or bad.
- It's impossible to get the correct outcome every time, so our goal is to do as well as we can over the long run.
- It's impossible to predict an outcome with any accuracy. Our decisions are just guesses.
- Mistakes are generally the result of heuristic decisions.
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Which of the following best describes probabilistic decision making?

- It's impossible to ever know whether a decision was good or bad.
- It's impossible to get the correct outcome every time, so our goal is to do as well as we can over the long run.
- It's impossible to predict an outcome with any accuracy. Our decisions are just guesses.
- Mistakes are generally the result of heuristic decisions.
New Jersey has begun using a statistical algorithm to set bail for criminal defendants. The algorithm uses various pieces of data to estimate the risk that the defendant will flee before his court hearing. Based on what we discussed in class, which of the following is true?

- The algorithm is likely to be faster than a human at estimating defendants' flight risk, but no more accurate.
- The algorithm is likely to be more accurate at estimating flight risk than a human would be.
- The algorithm is likely to mimic human decisions very closely.
- The algorithm is likely to be less accurate at estimating flight risk than a human would be.
An investor has the chance to buy shares in a new tech startup company. Having seen several recent reports about other tech startups that went on to be highly successful (and none about startups that flopped), the investor estimates that this new company also has high chances of big success and decides to buy in. Which of the following best explains this judgment?

- Loss aversion
- Regression to the mean
- The availability heuristic
- Anchoring bias
A prospective home buyer wants to make an offer on a house. The buyer and her real estate agent both agree that the asking price for the home is far too high, and they resolve to only bid fair market value. However, they end up overestimating the fair market value and overpaying for the house. It is likely that they were affected by what decision making heuristic or bias?

- The endowment effect
- Overconfidence
- Anchoring
- Indifference
Which of the following is most accurate?

- People can learn heuristic strategies that allow them to make very fast and accurate decisions under appropriate circumstances.
- Some people make their best judgments when they rely on gut instinct. Other people make their best judgments when they approach a decision analytically.
- It's always best to trust your gut and try not to overthink a decision.
- A heuristic decision should never be preferred to a careful analytic decision.
Which of the following statements is most accurate?

- An unstructured interview is the best way of assessing whether a candidate is qualified and well-suited for a given position.
- Although unstructured interviews are not usually very informative, people tend to trust them a lot.
- Although unstructured interviews can be highly informative, people tend not to trust the information they provide.
- People tend to distrust unstructured interviews because they are known to be uninformative.
People in an experiment were asked to choose a medical procedure for fighting a (hypothetical) disease outbreak. People were more likely to choose a given procedure if they were told "200 out of 600 people will be saved" than if they were told "400 out of 600 people will die."
This is an example of a ___________ effect, and it illustrates the phenomenon of ___________.
The premortem decision making procedure is done before a decision is made, imagining a negative outcome and then thinking of the possibilities that could have led to that outcome. The purpose of this is to fight against any overoptimism, overconfidence, and any hindsight bias that we could have while deciding something.