22 terms

Fenton & Neil, 2012

Bayes: 'basic rule for updating the probability of a hypothesis, given evidence'

Wording of statistical evidence in court - the word 'match'

Wording of statistical evidence in court - the word 'match'

R v T, 2010

Bayes/LRs should not be used in evaluating forensic evidence except for DNA or other evidence with a 'firm statistical base'

Gonzalez-Rodriguez et al., 2006

Two problems with Bayes:

1) Info in Bayes is riddled with assumptions which could be questioned in court.

2) Very difficult to explain simply and then scale up to real life processes

1) Info in Bayes is riddled with assumptions which could be questioned in court.

2) Very difficult to explain simply and then scale up to real life processes

Fenton et al., 2014

Show how easy it is to use pairs of hypotheses assumed to be mutually exclusive but are not.

Evett & Buckleton, 1989

Assumptions in Bayes are often made to facilitate discussion

Biedermann et al., 2014

Fenton et al., 2014 risk making LRs and stats seem like an impossible framework to use

Freckleton et al., 2012

Jury generally have v little numerical background and haven't adapted to quantitative evidence

R v Clark, 2000

Nobles & Schiff, 2003

Nobles & Schiff, 2003

Statistics of killing both children vs them dying of SIDS.

Prof Meadows multiplied the two probabilities together, but this doesn't account for other factors eg genetic predisposition to SIDS.

Prof Meadows multiplied the two probabilities together, but this doesn't account for other factors eg genetic predisposition to SIDS.

Lindsey et al., 2003

Communicating stat evidence to the jury can be challenging

Beyth-Maron & Fischhoff, 1983

'People are much better at using...[statistical] evidence than they are at seeking it out...or articulating reasons for its usage.'

Kay & Koehler, 1991

Explanation of statistics is important so the jury can understand what the evidence entails.

Agnew, 2014

CSI effect - juries are influenced by the 'presence' of stats and also demand more evidence.

Bozza, 2015

Defence Attorney's Fallacy

Bar-Hillel, 1980

Base rate statistics

Lopez Puga et al., 2015

Coin eg for the prosecutor's fallacy

Aitken & Taroni, 2004

The Prosecutor's Fallacy

Thompson & Schumann, 1987

Exposed undergrads to statistical statements framed in different ways to see how they were influenced

Balding & Nichols, 1994

Product rule ignores uncertainty and issues with sub-populations

Gill & Haned, 2002

P-values should be used to explain the strength of an LR in relation to DNA

Krujiver et al., 2015

Reject Gill & Haned's idea - p-values don't relate directly to the strength of the evidence, they just say how rare it is to find evidence that strong/stronger

Henderson, 2002

Random occurrence ratios can be misjudged by jury to be an expert's opinion on the likelihood of an event.

Evett, 1986

Glass fragments