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Basic probability (Chapter4)
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Key Concepts:
Terms in this set (24)
Probability
The chance that an uncertain event will occur. Always between 0 and 1.
Event
Each possible type of occurrence or outcome.
Simple event
Event that can be described by a single characteristic.
Sample space
The collection of all possible events. Example all 52 catds in a deck of cards and all possible outcomes when having a child: boy or girl.
Events in a sample space
Simple event, an outcome from a sample space with one characteristic. Example a red card from a deck of cards.
Complement of an A event
All outcomes that are not part of an event A. Example all dard that are not diamonds.
Joint event
Involves two or more characteristics simutaneously. Example an ace that is also red from a deck of cards.
Mutually exclusive event
Events that cannot occur together (simultaneously). Example: B=having a boy, G=having a girl. Events B and G are mutually exclusive if only one child is born.
Collectively exhaustive events
One of the events must occur. The sample of events covers the entire sample space.
Priori Classical Probability
Probability of an event based on prior knowledge of the process involved. Probability of occurrence = # of ways event can occurr / total number of possible outcomes.
Empirical Classic
Based on observed data. Probability of occurrence = # of favorable outcomes observed / total # of outcomes observed.
Subjective Probability
Probability of an event based on an individuals past experience, personal opinion, and or analysis of a particular situation
General Addition Rule
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B). If A and B are mutually exclusive the rule can be simplified to, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B).
Statistically independent
If the outcome of event A is not affected by event B, then events A and B are said to be.
Cannot be determine
If two events are independent, what is the probability that they both occur?
Marginal
Simple probability is also called
When in general multiplication rule, P(A and B) is equal
P(A\B) P(B)
If P(A and B) = 0, then A and B must be
Mutually exclusive
If two events are collectively exhaustive, what is the probability that one or the other occurs?
1.0
If two events are collectively exhaustive, what is the probability that both occur at the same time.
Cannot be determine
If two events are mutually exclusive, what is the probability that both occur at the same time?
0
If two equally likely events A and B are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, what is the probability that event A williams occurr?
.50
If events A and B cannot occur at the same time, then events A and B are said to be
Mutually exclusive
Collection of all possible events is called
Sample space
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