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Question

A toy manufacturer buys ball bearings from three different suppliers-50% of her total order comes from supplier 1, 30% from supplier 2, and the rest from supplier 3. Past experience has shown that the quality-control standards of the three suppliers are not all the same. Two percent of the ball bearings produced by supplier 1 are defective, while suppliers 2 and 3 produce defective bearings 3% and 4% of the time, respectively. What proportion of the ball bearings in the toy manufacturer’s inventory are defective?

Solution

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Step 1
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Let

A1A_1=Supplier 1

A2A_2=Supplier 2

A3A_3=Supplier 3

BB=defective

Given:

P(A1)=50%=0.50P(A_1)=50\%=0.50

P(A2)=30%=0.30P(A_2)=30\%=0.30

P(A3)=20%=0.20P(A_3)=20\%=0.20

P(BA1)=2%=0.02P(B|A_1)=2\%=0.02

P(BA2)=3%=0.03P(B|A_2)=3\%=0.03

P(BA3)=4%=0.04P(B|A_3)=4\%=0.04

Result theorem of this section:

P(B)=i=1nP(BAi)P(Ai)P(B)=\sum_{i=1}^n P(B|A_i)P(A_i)

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