Here are the actual tabulated demands for an item for a nine-month period (January through September). Your supervisor wants to test two forecasting methods to see which method was better over this period. Forecast April through September using a three-month moving average.

MONTH	ACTUAL
January	110
February	130
March	150
April	170
May	160

MONTH	ACTUAL
June	180
July	140
August	130
September	140

The following table shows predicted product demand using your particular forecasting method along with the actual demand that occurred. Discuss whether your forecasting method is giving good predictions

Historical demand for a product is shown below. Using single exponential smoothing with $\alpha=0.2$ and a June forecast = 13, find the July forecast. Make whatever assumptions you wish.

A particular forecasting model was used to forecast a six-month period. Here are the forecasts and actual demands that resulted. Find the tracking signal and state whether you think the model being used is giving acceptable answers.

The tracking signals computed using past demand history for three different products are as follows. Each product used the same forecasting technique. Discuss the tracking signals for each and what the implications are.

Harlen Industries has a simple forecasting model: Take the actual demand for the same month last year and divide that by the number of fractional weeks in that month. This gives the average weekly demand for that month. This weekly average is used as the weekly forecast for the same month this year. This technique was used to forecast eight weeks for this year, which are shown below along with the actual demand that occurred. The following eight weeks show the forecast (based on last year) and the demand that actually occurred. Using the RSFE, compute the tracking signal.

Shock waves are treated as discontinuities here, but they actually have a very small finite thickness. After giving it some thought, sketch your idea of the distribution of gas velocity, pressure, temperature, and entropy through the inside of a shock wave.

Assume that your stock of sales merchandise is maintained based on the forecast demand. If the distributor’s sales personnel call on the first day of each month, compute your forecast sales by each of the three methods requested here. Using a simple three-month moving average, what is the forecast for September?

After using your forecasting model for six months, you decide to test it using MAD and a tracking signal. Here are the forecast and actual demands for the six-month period. Decide whether your forecasting routine is acceptable.

Tucson Machinery, Inc. manufactures numerically controlled machines, which sell for an average price of $\$0.5$ million each. Sales for these NCMs for the past two years were as follows. Find the trend and seasonal indexes.

Dave's Auto Supply custom mixes paint for its customers. The shop performs a weekly inventory count of the main colors used for mixing paint. Determine the amount of white paint that should be ordered using the following information:

$$\begin{array}{ll} \hline \text { Average weekly demand } & 20 \text { gallons } \\ \text { Standard deviation of demand } & 5 \text { gallons/week } \\ \text { Desired service probability } & 98 \% \\ \text { Current inventory } & 25 \text { gallons } \\ \text { Lead time } & 1 \text { week } \\ \hline \end{array}$$

Tucson Machinery, Inc. manufactures numerically controlled machines, which sell for an average price of $\$0.5$ million each. Sales for these NCMs for the past two years were as follows. Forecast sales for next year.

Demand for stereo headphones and music players for joggers has caused Nina Industries to grow almost 50 percent over the past year. The number of joggers continues to expand, so Nina expects demand for headsets to also expand, because, as yet, no safety laws have been passed to prevent joggers from wearing them. Demand for the players for last year was as follows. To be reasonably confident of meeting demand, Nina decides to use three standard errors of estimate for safety. How many additional units should be held to meet this level of confidence?

Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of $0.3$ to forecast the sales in April.