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Is it defense or offense that wins football games? Consider the following portion of data, which includes a team's winning record (Win), the average number of yards gained, and the average number of yards allowed during the 2009 NFL season.

 Team  Win (%) Yards  Gained  Yards  Allowed  Arizona  Cardinals 62.50344.40346.40 Atlanta Falcons 56.30340.40348.90 Washington  Redskins 25.00312.50319.70\begin{array}{|l|c|c|c|} \hline \text { Team } & \begin{array}{c} \text { Win } \\ (\%) \end{array} & \begin{array}{c} \text { Yards } \\ \text { Gained } \end{array} & \begin{array}{c} \text { Yards } \\ \text { Allowed } \end{array} \\ \hline \begin{array}{l} \text { Arizona } \\ \text { Cardinals } \end{array} & 62.50 & 344.40 & 346.40 \\ \hline \text { Atlanta Falcons } & 56.30 & 340.40 & 348.90 \\ \hline \vdots & \vdots & \vdots & \vdots \\ \hline \begin{array}{l} \text { Washington } \\ \text { Redskins } \end{array} & 25.00 & 312.50 & 319.70 \\ \hline \end{array}

a. Compare two simple linear regression models, where Model 1 predicts the winning percentage based on Yards Gained and Model 2 uses Yards Allowed.

b. Estimate a multiple linear regression model, Model 3, that applies both Yards Gained and Yards Allowed to forecast the winning percentage. Is this model an improvement over the other two models? Explain.

Question

Is it defense or offense that wins football games? Consider the following portion of data, which includes a team's winning record (Win in %), the average number of yards gained, and the average number of yards allowed during the 20092009 NFL season.

 Team  Win  Yards Gained  Yards Allowed  Arizona Cardinals 62.50344.40346.40 Atlanta Falcons 56.30340.40348.90 Washington Redskins 25.00312.50319.70\begin{array}{|l|c|c|c|} \hline \text { Team } & \text { Win } & \text { Yards Gained } & \text { Yards Allowed } \\ \hline \text { Arizona Cardinals } & 62.50 & 344.40 & 346.40 \\ \hline \text { Atlanta Falcons } & 56.30 & 340.40 & 348.90 \\ \hline \vdots & \vdots & \vdots & \vdots \\ \hline \text { Washington Redskins } & 25.00 & 312.50 & 319.70 \\ \hline \end{array}

Estimate a multiple linear regression model, Model 3, that applies both Yards Gained and Yards Allowed to forecast the winning percentage. Is this model an improvement over the other two models? Explain.

Solution

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We are given a sample of wins, yards gained and yards allowed of 3232 teams.

Our goal is to estimate a multiple linear regression model showing the influence of yards gained and yards allowed on the winning percentage.

We can write the model as:

Win=β0+β1Yards made+β2Yards allowed(3)\begin{aligned} \text{Win}&=\beta_0+\beta_1 \text{Yards made}+\beta_2\text{Yards allowed}\quad (3)\\ \end{aligned}

Furthermore, we want to see if this model is better than the two simple linear regression models from part a.

How do we estimate the model?

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