List the steps in deseasonalizing a monthly time series.

U.S. Presidential Election Voter Participation, 1952–2008
Year	Voting Age Population	Voted for President	% Voting Pres
1952	99,929	61,551	61.6
1956	104,515	62,027	59.3
1960	109,672	68,838	62.8
1964	114,090	70,645	61.9
1968	120,285	73,212	60.9
1972	140,777	77,719	55.2
1976	152,308	81,556	53.5
1980	163,945	86,515	52.8
1984	173,995	92,653	53.3
1988	181,956	91,595	50.3
1992	189,524	104,425	55.1
1996	196,928	96,278	49.0
2000	207,884	105,397	50.7
2004	220,377	122,349	55.5
2008	229,945	131,407	57.1

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There are five steps in deseasonalizing a monthly time series:

The first step is to calculate a centered moving average for each month or quarter. Because of that, we will lose $12$ observations (monthly data) or $4$ observations (quarterly data).

The second step is to divide each observed $y_t$ value by the CMA to obtain seasonal ratios.

In the third step we have to average the seasonal ratios by month or quarter to get seasonal indexes.

In the fourth step the seasonal indexes for each month, quarter, is adjusted such that a sum of all them is $12$ , or $4$ .

And the fifth step to divide each $y_t$ by its seasonal index to get deseasonalized data.

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(e) Make forecasts for the next 3 years, using the linear trend model. Why might 2009 have been unusual? Explain.

Swiss Watch Exports (thousands of units), 2005–2010
Year	Mechanical	Electronic
2005	3,368	20,996
2006	3,757	21,109
2007	4,213	21,679
2008	4,316	21,784
2009	3,737	17,956
2010	4,938	21,177

JetBlue Airlines Revenue, 2003–2010 (millions)
Year	Revenue	Year	Revenue
2003	998	2007	2,843
2004	1,265	2008	3,392
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In 2009, US Airways Flight 1549 made a successful emergency landing in the Hudson River, after striking birds shortly after takeoff. Are bird strikes an increasing threat to planes?

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