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One of the more closely watched ratios by investors is the price/earnings (P/E) ratio. By dividing price per share by earnings per share, analysts get insight into the value the market attaches to a company’s earnings. More specifically, a high P/E ratio (in comparison to companies in the same industry) may suggest the stock is overpriced. Also, there is some evidence that companies with low P/E ratios are underpriced and tend to outperform the market. However, the ratio can be misleading.

P/E ratios are sometimes misleading because the E (earnings) is subject to a number of assumptions and estimates that could result in overstated earnings and a lower P/E. Some analysts conduct “revenue analysis” to evaluate the quality of an earnings number. Revenues are less subject to management estimates and all earnings must begin with revenues. These analysts also compute the price-to-sales ratio (PSR = price per share / sales per share) to assess whether a company is performing well compared to similar companies. If a company has a price-to-sales ratio significantly higher than its competitors, investors may be betting on a stock that has yet to prove itself. [Source: Janice Revell, “Beyond P/E,” Fortune (May 28, 2001), p. 174.]

Instructions

  • a. Identify some of the estimates or assumptions that could result in overstated earnings.
  • b. Compute the P/E ratio and the PSR for Tootsie Roll and Hershey for 2014.
  • c. Use these data to compare the quality of each company’s earnings.

Many stock market observers say that when the P/E ratio for stocks gets over 20 the market is overvalued. The P/E ratio is the stock price divided by the most recent 12 months of earnings. Suppose you are interested in seeing whether the current market is overvalued and would also like to know what proportion of companies pay dividends. A random sample of 30 companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is provided (Barron’s, January 19, 2004).

CompanyDividendP/E RatioCompanyDividendP/E RatioAlbertsonsYes14NY Times AYes25BRE PropYes18OmnicareYes25CityNtlYes16PallCpYes23DelMonteNo21PubSvcEntYes11EnrgzHldgNo20SensientTchYes11Ford MotorYes22SmtPropYes12Gildan ANo12TJX CosYes21HudsnUtdBcpYes13ThomsonYes30IBMYes22USB HldgYes12JeffPilotYes16US RestrYes26KingswayFinNo6Varian MedNo41LibbeyYes13VisxNo72MasoniteIntlNo15Waste MgtNo23MotorolaYes68Wiley AYes21 CityYes10Yum BrandsNo18\begin{matrix} \text{Company} & \text{Dividend} & \text{P/E Ratio} & \text{Company} & \text{Dividend} & \text{P/E Ratio}\\ \text{Albertsons} & \text{Yes} & \text{14} & \text{NY Times A} & \text{Yes} & \text{25}\\ \text{BRE Prop} & \text{Yes} & \text{18} & \text{Omnicare} & \text{Yes} & \text{25}\\ \text{CityNtl} & \text{Yes} & \text{16} & \text{PallCp} & \text{Yes} & \text{23}\\ \text{DelMonte} & \text{No} & \text{21} & \text{PubSvcEnt} & \text{Yes} & \text{11}\\ \text{EnrgzHldg} & \text{No} & \text{20} & \text{SensientTch} & \text{Yes} & \text{11}\\ \text{Ford Motor} & \text{Yes} & \text{22} & \text{SmtProp} & \text{Yes} & \text{12}\\ \text{Gildan A} & \text{No} & \text{12} & \text{TJX Cos} & \text{Yes} & \text{21}\\ \text{HudsnUtdBcp} & \text{Yes} & \text{13} & \text{Thomson} & \text{Yes} & \text{30}\\ \text{IBM} & \text{Yes} & \text{22} & \text{USB Hldg} & \text{Yes} & \text{12}\\ \text{JeffPilot} & \text{Yes} & \text{16} & \text{US Restr} & \text{Yes} & \text{26}\\ \text{KingswayFin} & \text{No} & \text{6} & \text{Varian Med} & \text{No} & \text{41}\\ \text{Libbey} & \text{Yes} & \text{13} & \text{Visx} & \text{No} & \text{72}\\ \text{MasoniteIntl} & \text{No} & \text{15} & \text{Waste Mgt} & \text{No} & \text{23}\\ \text{Motorola} & \text{Yes} & \text{68} & \text{Wiley A} & \text{Yes} & \text{21}\\ \text{ City} & \text{Yes} & \text{10} & \text{Yum Brands} & \text{No} & \text{18}\\ \end{matrix}

What is a point estimate of the P/E ratio for the population of stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange? Develop a 95% confidence interval.

Question

Case 2: P/E Ratios

One of the more closely watched ratios by investors is the price/earnings (P/E) ratio. By dividing price per share by earnings per share, analysts get insight into the value the market attaches to a company's earnings. More specifically, a high P/E ratio (in comparison to companies in the same industry) may suggest the stock is overpriced. Also, there is some evidence that companies with low P/E ratios are underpriced and tend to outperform the market. However, the ratio can be misleading.

P/E ratios are sometimes misleading because the E (earnings) is subject to a number of assumptions and estimates that could result in overstated earnings and a lower P/E. Some analysts conduct "revenue analysis" to evaluate the quality of an earnings number. Revenues are less subject to management estimates and all earnings must begin with revenues. These analysts also compute the price-to-sales ratio (PSR = price per share + sales per share) to assess whether a company is performing well compared to similar companies. If a company has a price-to-sales ratio significantly higher than its competitors, investors may be betting on a stock that has yet to prove itself.

Instructions

a. Identify some of the estimates or assumptions that could result in overstated earnings.

b. Compute the P/E ratio and the PSR for Tootsie Roll and Hershey for 2017.

c. Use these data to compare the quality of each company's earnings.

Solution

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