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Question

Refer to a small consumer survey in which 10 people were asked to choose a cola among Coke, Pepsi, and RC. If each person chose a cola randomly, what is the probability that at least one person did not choose Coke?

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Multiplication principle: \textbf{Multiplication principle: }If one event can occur in mm ways AND a second event can occur in nn ways, then the number of ways that the two events can occur in sequence is then mnm\cdot n.

There are 3 options for each of the 10 people (Coke, Pepsi, and RC) and thus there are 3103^{10} possible outcomes by the multiplication principle.

# of possible outcomes=310=59049\text{\# of possible outcomes}=3^{10}=59049

The order in which we select the Coke answers does not matter (as a different order results in the same people answering Coke) and thus we need to use the definition of combination\textbf{combination}.

There are C(10,0)C(10,0) ways to select 0 of the 10 people (who answer Coke), thus there are 59049C(10,0)59049-C(10,0) ways to select at least one person how answer Coke and thus there are 59049C(10,0)59049-C(10,0) favorable outcomes.

# of favorable outcomes=59049C(10,0)=590491=59048\text{\# of favorable outcomes}=59049-C(10,0)=59049-1=59048

The probability is the number of favorable outcomes divided by the number of possible outcomes:

P(At least 1 Coke)=# of favorable outcomes# of possible outcomes=59048590490.99998306=99.998306%\begin{align*} P(\text{At least 1 Coke})&=\dfrac{\text{\# of favorable outcomes}}{\text{\# of possible outcomes}} \\ &=\frac{59048}{59049} \\ &\approx 0.99998306 \\ &=99.998306\% \end{align*}

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