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Question

Suppose that trees are distributed in a forest according to a two-dimensional Poisson process with parameter α\alpha, the expected number of trees per acre, equal to 80. a. What is the probability that in a certain quarter-acre plot, there will be at most 16 trees? b. If the forest covers 85,000 acres, what is the expected number of trees in the forest? c. Suppose you select a point in the forest and construct a circle of radius .1 mile. Let X=the number of trees within that circular region. What is the pmf of X? [Hint: 1 sq mile=640 acres.]

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Proposition:\text{\textcolor{#4257b2}{\textbf{Proposition:}}} Number of events during a time interval of length t can be modeled using Poisson Random Variable with parameter μ=αt\mu = \alpha t. This indicates that

Pk(t)=eαt(αt)kk!.P_k(t) = e^{-\alpha t} \cdot \frac{(\alpha t)^k}{k!}.

Poisson process\text{\textcolor{#4257b2}{\textbf{Poisson process}}}

We are given that

α=80.\alpha = 80.

(a):\textcolor{#19804f}{\textbf{(a):}}

In this case, since a quarter is 0.25 of a acre, the mean parameter would be

α0.25=800.25=20.\alpha \cdot 0.25 = 80 \cdot 0.25 = 20.

Using this, the following is true

P16(0.25)=P(X16)=F(16;20)=(1)0.221;\begin{equation*} \begin{split} P_{16}(0.25) = \textcolor{#4257b2}{P(X \leq 16)} = F(16;20) \overset{\textcolor{#c34632}{(1)}}{=} \textcolor{#4257b2}{0.221}; \end{split} \end{equation*}

(1):\textcolor{#c34632}{(1):} Appendix Table A.2 contains the Poisson cdf F(x;μ)F(x;\mu).

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