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The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) polls its subscribers on a weekly basis to determine the number who are bullish, bearish, or neutral on the short-term prospects for the stock market. Their findings for the week ending March 2, 2006, are consistent with the following sample results (AAII website, March 7, 2006).

Bullish  409       Neutral  299       Bearish  291\text{Bullish} ~~ 409 ~~~~~~~\text{Neutral} ~~ 299~~~~~~~ \text{Bearish}~~ 291

Develop a point estimate of the following population parameters.

The proportion of all AAII subscribers who are bearish on the stock market.

Solution

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Given:

  • xx = Number of successes = 291
  • nn = Sample size = 409 + 299 + 291 = 999

In this exercise, we are interested in the point estimate of the population proportion pp.

What is the point estimate of the population proportion pp? How can it be calculated?

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