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The article “Leachate from Land Disposed Residential Construction Waste” (W. Weber, Y. Jang, et al., Journal of Environmental Engineering, 2002: 237-245) presents a study of contamination at landfills containing construction and demolition waste. Specimens of leachate were taken from a test site. Out of 42 specimens, 26 contained detectable levels of lead, 41 contained detectable levels of arsenic, and 32 contained detectable levels of chromium. a. Find a 90% confidence interval for the probability that a specimen will contain a detectable level of lead. b. Find a 95% confidence interval for the probability that a specimen will contain a detectable level of arsenic. c. Find a 99% confidence interval for the probability that a specimen will contain a detectable level of chromium.

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(a) Given:

x=26x=26

n=42n=42

c=90%=0.90c=90\%=0.90

We add 2 successes and 2 failures to the sample. The sample proportion is the number of successes divided by the sample size:

p^=x+2n+4=26+242+4=28460.6087\hat{p}=\dfrac{x+2}{n+4}=\dfrac{26+2}{42+4}=\dfrac{28}{46}\approx 0.6087

For confidence level 1α=0.901-\alpha=0.90, determine zα/2=z0.05z_{\alpha/2}=z_{0.05} using using the normal probability table in the appendix (look up 0.05 in the table, the z-score is then the found z-score with opposite sign):

zα/2=1.645z_{\alpha/2}=1.645

The margin of error is then:

E=zα/2p^(1p^)n+4=1.645×0.6087(10.6087)42+40.1184E=z_{\alpha/2}\cdot \sqrt{\dfrac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n+4}}=1.645\times \sqrt{\dfrac{0.6087(1-0.6087)}{42+4}}\approx 0.1184

The boundaries of the confidence interval are then:

p^E=0.60870.1184=0.4903\hat{p}-E=0.6087-0.1184= 0.4903

p^+E=0.6087+0.1184=0.7271\hat{p}+E=0.6087+0.1184= 0.7271

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