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The Butler-Perkins Company (BPC) must decide between two mutually exclusive projects. Each costs 6,750 dollars and has an expected life of 3 years. Annual project cash flows begin 1 year after the initial investment and are subject to the following probability distributions:

 Project A  Probability  Cash Flows 0.26,000 dollars 0.66,7500.27,500\begin{aligned} & \quad \quad \quad \text { Project A }\\ &\begin{array}{cc} \hline \text { Probability } & \text { Cash Flows } \\ \hline 0.2 & 6,000 \text{ dollars } \\ 0.6 & 6,750 \\ 0.2 & 7,500 \end{array} \end{aligned}

 Project B  Probability  Cash Flows 0.20 dollars 0.66,7500.218,000\begin{aligned} & \quad \quad \quad \text { Project B }\\ &\begin{array}{cc} \hline \text { Probability } & \text { Cash Flows } \\ \hline 0.2 & 0 \text{ dollars } \\ 0.6 & 6,750 \\ 0.2 & 18,000 \end{array} \end{aligned}

BPC has decided to evaluate the riskier project at 12 percent and the less-risky project at 10 percent.

a. What is each project's expected annual cash flow? Project B's standard deviation (σB)\left(\sigma_B\right) is 5,798 dollars, and its coefficient of variation (CVB)\left(\mathrm{CV}_{\mathrm{B}}\right) is 0.76. What are the values of σA\sigma_{\mathrm{A}} and CVA\mathrm{CV}_{\mathrm{A}} ?

b. Based on the risk-adjusted NPVs, which project should BPC choose?

c. If you knew that Project B's cash flows were negatively correlated with the firm's other cash flows, but Project A's cash flows were positively correlated, how might this affect the decision? If Project B's cash flows were negatively correlated with gross domestic product (GDP), while A's cash flows were positively correlated, would that influence your risk assessment?

Question

The Butler-Perkins Company (BPC) must decide between two mutually exclusive projects. Each costs $6,750\$6,750 and has an expected life of 3 years. Annual project cash flows begin 1 year after the initial investment and are subject to the following probability distributions:

Project A Project BProbabilityCash FlowsProbabilityCash Flows0.2$ 60000.2$ 00.667500.667500.275000.218000\begin{matrix} \text{Project A} & \text{ } & \text{Project B}\\ \text{Probability} & \text{Cash Flows} & \text{Probability} & \text{Cash Flows}\\ \text{0.2} & \text{\$ 6000} & \text{0.2} & \text{\$ 0}\\ \text{0.6} & \text{6750} & \text{0.6} & \text{6750}\\ \text{0.2} & \text{7500} & \text{0.2} & \text{18000}\\ \end{matrix}

BPC has decided to evaluate the riskier project at 12%12\% and the less-risky project at 10%10\%.

a. What is each project’s expected annual cash flow? Project B’s standard deviation (σB)\left(\sigma_{\mathrm{B}}\right) is $5,798\$5,798, and its coefficient of variation (CVB)\left(\mathrm{CV}_{\mathrm{B}}\right) is 0.76. What are the values of σA\sigma_{\mathrm{A}} and CVA?\mathrm{CV}_{\mathrm{A}} ?

b. Based on the risk-adjusted NPVs, which project should BPC choose?

Solution

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In this exercise, we are asked to determine the expected annual cash flow of each given project. In addition, we are also asked to determine the standard deviation and coefficient of variation of Project B.

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