The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows:

YEAR	MILEAGE
1	3,000
2	4,000
3	3,400
4	3,800
5	3,700

Compute the forecast for year 6 using exponential smoothing, an initial forecast for year 1 of 3,000 miles, and $\alpha=.5$.

The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows:

Find the MAD based on the 2-year moving average. (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data.)

The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows:

Compute the forecast for year 6 using exponential smoothing, an initial forecast for year 1 of 3,000 miles, and

$$\alpha=.5$$

.

The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows:

Use a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of .4 and .6 to forecast next year's mileage. (The weight of $.6$ is for the most recent year.) What MAD results from using this approach to forecasting? (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data.)

The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows:

Find the MAD based on the 2-year moving average. (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data.)

The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as follows:

Plot the monthly sales data. | December | 23 |

The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as follows:

Forecast January sales using each of the following:

i) Naive method.

ii) A 3-month moving average.

iii) A 6-month weighted average using .1, .1, .1, .2, .2, and .3, with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months.

iv) Exponential smoothing using an $\alpha=.3$ and a September forecast of 18.

v) A trend projection.

Briefly describe the steps that are used to develop a forccasting system.

As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years:

The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be 41 surgeries.

With MAD as the criterion, which of the four forecasting methods is best?

Dr. Lillian Fok, a New Orleans psychologist, specializes in treating patients who are agoraphobic (i.e., afraid to leave their homes). The following table indicates how many patients Dr. Fok has seen each year for the past 10 years. It also indicates what the robbery rate was in New Orleans during the same year:

Using trend (linear regression) analysis, predict the number of patients Dr. Fok will see in years 11 and 12 as a function of time. How well does the model fit the data?

Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years 2 through 12 using exponential smoothing with $\alpha=.4$ and a forecast for year 1 of 6 . Plot your new forecast on a graph with the actual data and the naive forecast. Based on a visual inspection, which forecast is better?

Refer to the problem on page 144.

Use a 3-year moving average to forecast the sales of Volkswagen Beetles in Nevada through year 6 .

Using AOA, diagram the network described below for Lillian Fok's construction project. Calculate its critical path. How long is the minimum duration of this network?

Mark Gershon, owner of a musical instrument distributorship, thinks that demand for guitars may be related to the number of television appearances by the popular group Maroon 5 during the previous month. Mark has collected the data shown in the following table:

What is your estimate for guitar sales if Maroon 5 performed on TV nine times last month?