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The Global Tea and Organic Juice companies have merged. The following information has been collected for the “Consolidation Project.”

  1. Compute the expected time for each activity.

  2. Compute the variance for each activity.

  3. Compute the expected project duration.

  4. What is the probability of completing the project by day 112? Within 116 days?

  5. What is the probability of completing “Negotiate with Unions” by day 90?

1 Codify accounts  None 1619282 File articles of unification  None 3030303 Unify price and credit policy  None 6072904 Unify personnel policies  None 1827305 Unify data processing 11729476 Train accounting staff 147107 Pilot run data processing 51215188 Calculate P & L and balance sheet 6,7612249 Transfer real property 218273010 Train salesforce 320355011 Negotiate with unions 4405510012 Determine capital needs 811202913 Explain personnel policies 1114232614 Secure line of credit 9,1213161915 End 10,13,14000\begin{array}{rllcrr}1 & \text { Codify accounts } & \text { None } & 16 & 19 & 28 \\ 2 & \text { File articles of unification } & \text { None } & 30 & 30 & 30 \\ 3 & \text { Unify price and credit policy } & \text { None } & 60 & 72 & 90 \\ 4 & \text { Unify personnel policies } & \text { None } & 18 & 27 & 30 \\ 5 & \text { Unify data processing } & 1 & 17 & 29 & 47 \\ 6 & \text { Train accounting staff } & 1 & 4 & 7 & 10 \\ 7 & \text { Pilot run data processing } & 5 & 12 & 15 & 18 \\ 8 & \text { Calculate P \& L and balance sheet } & 6,7 & 6 & 12 & 24 \\ 9 & \text { Transfer real property } & 2 & 18 & 27 & 30 \\ 10 & \text { Train salesforce } & 3 & 20 & 35 & 50 \\ 11 & \text { Negotiate with unions } & 4 & 40 & 55 & 100 \\ 12 & \text { Determine capital needs } & 8 & 11 & 20 & 29 \\ 13 & \text { Explain personnel policies } & 11 & 14 & 23 & 26 \\ 14 & \text { Secure line of credit } & 9,12 & 13 & 16 & 19 \\ 15 & \text { End } & 10,13,14 & 0 & 0 & 0\end{array}

Question

The Global Tea and Organic Juice companies have merged. The following information has been collected for the “Consolidation Project.

  1. Compute the expected time for each activity.

  2. Compute the variance for each activity.

  3. Compute the expected project duration.

  4. What is the probability of completing the project by day 112? Within 116 days?

  5. What is the probability of completing “Negotiate with Unions” by day 90?

Activity Description Predecessor a\boldsymbol{a} opt m\boldsymbol{m} ml b\boldsymbol{b} pess
11 Codify accounts None 1616 1919 2828
22 File articles of unification None 3030 3030 3030
33 Unify price and credit policy None 6060 7272 9090
44 Unify personnel policies None 1818 2727 3030
55 Unify data processing 11 1717 2929 4747
66 Train accounting staff 11 44 77 1010
77 Pilot run data processing 55 1212 1515 18
88 Calculate P & L and balance sheet 66,77 66 1212 2424
99 Transfer real property 22 1818 2727 3030
1010 Train salesforce 33 2020 3535 5050
1111 Negotiate with unions 44 4040 5555 100100
1212 Determine capital needs 88 1111 2020 2929
1313 Explain personnel policies 1111 1414 2323 2626
1414 Secure line of credit 99,1212 1313 1616 1919
1515 End 10,13,1410,13,14 00 00 00

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The given case revolves around identifying the probability of a project getting completed.

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