There are two types of batteries in a bin. When in use, type i batteries last (in hours) an exponentially distributed time with rate
. A battery that is randomly chosen from the bin will be a type i battery with probability
If a randomly chosen battery is still operating after t hours of use, what is the probability that it will still be operating after an additional s hours?
Solution
VerifiedDefine as the random variable that marks the time in which randomly chosen battery operates. Define events that the first battery has been chosen and that the second battery has been chosen. We are required to calculate . Using the law of the total probability, we have that
Now, if we are given that the first battery has been chosen, we have that , so we can use memoryless property of exponential distribution to obtain that
On the other hand, use Bayesian formula to obtain that
Similarly we have that
and
Finally, the required probability (from the expression (1)) is
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