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Some studies have suggested that a nightly glass of wine may not only take the edge off a day but also improve health. Is wine good for your health? A study of nearly 1.3 million middle-aged British women examined wine consumption and the relative risk of breast cancer. The relative risk is the proportion of those in the study who drank a given amount of wine and who developed breast cancer divided by the proportion of nondrinkers in the study who developed breast cancer. For example, if 10% of the women in the study who drank 10 grams of wine developed breast cancer and 9% of nondrinkers in the study developed breast cancer, the relative risk of breast cancer for women drinking 10 grams of wine per day would be 10%/ 9% = 1.11. A relative risk greater than 1 indicates a greater proportion of drinkers in the study developed breast cancer than nondrinkers. Wine intake is the mean wine intake, in grams per day, of all women in the study who drank some wine but less than or equal to two drinks per week; who drank between three and six drinks per week; who drank between seven and 14 drink s per week; and who drank 15 or more drink s per week. Here are the data (for drinkers only):

 Wine intake (grams per day) (x)2.58.515.526.5 Relative risk (y)1.001.081.151.22\begin{array}{lccccc} \text { Wine intake (grams per day) }(x) & 2.5 & 8.5 & 15.5 & 26.5 \\ \hline \text { Relative risk }(y) & 1.00 & 1.08 & 1.15 & 1.22 \end{array}

(a) Examine the data. Make a scatterplot with wine intake as the explanatory variable, and find the correlation. There is a strong linear relationship

(b) Explain in words what the slope β\beta of the population regression line would tell us if we knew it (note that these data represent averages over large numbers of women and are an example of an ecological correlation, and one must be careful not to interpret the data as applying to individuals). Based on the data, what are the estimates of β\beta and the intercept α\alpha of the population regression line?

(c) Calculate by hand the residuals for the four data points. Check that their sum is 0 (up to roundoff error). Use the residuals to estimate the standard deviation σ\sigma that measures variation in the responses (relative risk) about the means given by the population regression line. You have now estimated all three parameters.

Question

We often describe our emotional reaction to social rejection as "pain." Does social rejection cause activity in areas of the brain that are known to be activated by physical pain? If it does, we really do experience social and physical pain in similar ways. Psychologists first included and then deliberately excluded individuals from a social activity while they measured changes in brain activity. After each activity, the subjects filled out questionnaires that assessed how excluded they felt. Here are data for 13 subjects:

 SUBJECT  SOCIAL  DISTRESS  BRAIN  ACTIVITY 11.260.05521.850.04031.100.02642.500.01752.170.01762.670.01772.010.02182.180.02592.580.027102.750.033112.750.064123.330.077133.650.124\begin{array}{ccc} \hline \text { SUBJECT } & \begin{array}{c} \text { SOCIAL } \\ \text { DISTRESS } \end{array} & \begin{array}{c} \text { BRAIN } \\ \text { ACTIVITY } \end{array} \\ \hline 1 & 1.26 & 0.055 \\ \hline 2 & 1.85 & -0.040\hspace{8pt} \\ \hline 3 & 1.10 & -0.026\hspace{8pt} \\ \hline 4 & 2.50 & -0.017\hspace{8pt} \\ \hline 5 & 2.17 & -0.017 \hspace{8pt}\\ \hline 6 & 2.67 & 0.017 \\ \hline 7 & 2.01 & 0.021 \\ \hline 8 & 2.18 & 0.025 \\ \hline 9 & 2.58 & 0.027 \\ \hline 10 & 2.75 & 0.033 \\ \hline 11 & 2.75 & 0.064 \\ \hline 12 & 3.33 & 0.077 \\ \hline 13 & 3.65 & 0.124 \\ \hline \end{array}

The explanatory variable is "social distress" measured by each subject's questionnaire score after exclusion relative to the score after inclusion. (So values greater than 1 show the degree of distress caused by exclusion.) The response variable is change in activity in a region of the brain that is activated by physical pain. Negative values show a decrease in activity, suggesting less distress. Discuss what the data show about the relationship between social distress and brain activity.

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