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ECS 300 Exam

Terms in this set (93)

Earth's energy balance Equation
X
How do we know that the increase of CO2 concentration is coming (predominantly) from fossil fuel emissions, and not from the ocean, current biogenic activity or volcanism?
Bookkeeping: We know approximately how much CO2 we emit and where it goes

13C/12C has decreased: indicative of a biogenic source, since plants prefer 12C

14C/12C has decreased: indicative of an old source which has not exchanged carbon with the atmosphere for many millennia

O2 has decreased: indicative of oxidation or burning process
Kaya Identity (or IPAT)
CO2 = population GDP/Capita energy/GDP * CO2 emission/energy

A given economic growth rate can be sustainable only if the average impact per unit wealth declines at an equal or greater rate
Multicriteria Analysis (MCA)
tool to facilitate decisions in situations where there are: Multiple alternatives (although a finite set)
Multiple objectives (although a finite set)

MCA compares and ranks the alternatives

General MCA objectives: social, economic, ecological
Steps in Multicriteria Analysis
Definition of the objective; example = a journey to Paris

Inventory of the alternatives; example = car, bus, plane, etc.

Inventory of the objectives (objective tree) → they must not overlap!

Selection of criteria

Allocating scores to criteria using measurement scales

Standardization; mostly linear standardization used

Weighted summation; indicating tradeoffs between the criteria
Energy supply sector
largest contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions

In 2010, the energy supply sector was responsible for roughly 35% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions

Direct CO2 emissions from energy supply sector increasing from 14.4 GtCO2/yr in 2010 to 24-33 GtCO2/yr in 2050

Fundamental causes: I = P x A x T
Multiple options exist to reduce energy supply sector GHG emissions
Energy efficiency improvements and fugitive emission reductions in fuel extractions as well as in energy conversion, transmission, and distribution systems

Fossil fuel switching

Low GHG energy supply technologies such as: renewable energy (RE), nuclear power, carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)
RE technologies
Showing and have demonstrated substantial performance improvements and cost reductions, and have a growing number of RE technologies have achieved a level of maturity to enable deployment at a significant scale

Levelized cost of solar PV systems fell most substantially during 2009 and 2012; less marked turn has been observed with other RE technologies
Co-benefits from the usage of RE
Reduction of air pollution

Local employment opportunities

Few severe accidents compared to some other forms of energy supply

Improved energy access and security
Challenges of intermittent sources
Reduction in consumption
- Improving efficiency of equipment and processes; energy saving awareness

Shifting consumption from peak hours to valley hours
- Time of use tariffs; response to electricity market prices

Filling valleys
- Pumping storage station; energy storage technologies; charging of electric vehicles

Reduction in consumption during peak hours of the consumption
- Interruptibility service; automatic load management
Nuclear energy could make an increasing contribution to low-carbon energy supply, but a variety of barriers and risks exist
Operational risks and the associated safety concerns

Uranium mining risks

Financial and regulatory risks

Unresolved waste management issues

Nuclear weapon proliferation concerns

Adverse public opinion
Carbon dioxide capture and storage
Reduce the lifecycle GHG emissions of fossil fuel powered plants

While all components of integrated CCS systems exist and are all in use today by fossil fuel extraction and refining industry, CCS has not yet been applied at scale to a large commercial fossil fuel plant

Barriers to large scale CCS implementation include concerns about the operational safety and long term integrity of CO2 storage as well as transport risks
BECCS
Combining bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) offers the prospect of energy supply with large scale net negative emissions, which plays an important role in many low stabilisation scenarios
Success of energy policies depends on
Capacity building, the removal of financial barriers, the Development of a solid legal framework, and sufficient regulatory stability

Property rights, contract enforcement, and emissions accounting are essential for the
Successful implementation of climate policies in the energy supply sector
Why is there the need for international targets and burden sharing
A stable climate is considered to be a public good

Individual states face a social dilemma

Without mutual coercion, mutually agreed upon every state has reasons to wait for others to act
Carbon Leakage concept
as a result of stringent climate policies, companies move their production abroad to countries with less ambitious climate measures, which can lead to a rise in global greenhouse gas emissions
Carbon Budget concept
tolerable quantity of greenhouse gas emissions that can be emitted in total over a specified time
Libertarianism
People have rights not to be harmed in bodily integrity and personal property

No justification for government to raise taxes and redistributable wealth

Focus on negative rights: rights that refrain others from certain acts; that includes refraining from harming others by environmental damage (polluter pays principle)
Right Libertarianism: Historical Principle
First use establishes first rights (grandfather rights, acquired rights, status quo)

Basis of international law: state sovereignty over natural resources such as land

Consequences for climate negotiations: everyone same reduction percentage
Left Libertarianism: Historical Principle & Time Slice Principle
Appropriation natural resources: everyone holds equal rights

If a global emission target is set, then equal rights per capita
Common Heritage of Humankind principle
Principle of international law that holds that defined territorial areas and elements of humanity's common heritage (cultural and natural) should be held in trust for future generations and be protected from exploitation by individual nation states or corporations
Liberal Egalitarianism
Same rights as libertarianism to bodily integrity and personal property

But also responsibilities for the least advantaged (positive duties)
- Aiding the worst off or optimizing the position of the less advantaged
- Ability to pay, guaranteed minimum
- Strongest shoulders hold biggest burdens
Utilitarianism
Most ethical choice is the one that will produce the greatest good for the greatest number

An extra euro contributes more to the quality of life of a poor person than it does to a rich person

Value global natural resources therefore to the benefit of the least advantages

Although being a utilitarian, for pragmatic reasons

Singer defends non-historical equal per capita rights
Radiative Forcing
The change in the net radiative flux (expressed in Wm-2) at the top of the atmosphere due to a change in an external driver of climate change; imbalance on the Earth's energy budget

Examples could include a change in the concentration of carbon dioxide or the output of the sun
Climate feedbacks
process which strengthens (positive feedback) or weakens (negative feedback) an initial change (e.g. warming or cooling)
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS)
Amount of warming expected from a doubling of CO2 concentrations (or equivalent radiative forcing from another process) after (the atmosphere-upper ocean components of) the climate system has equilibrated (omitting slow feedbacks from ice sheets and vegetation)

AKA equilibrium change in the annual global mean surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric equivalent CO2 concentration
Transient Climate Response (TCR)
Amount of warming expected at the time of doubling of CO2 concentrations has been reached without the climate system having equilibrated

AKA change in the global mean surface temperature, averaged over a 20 year period, centred at the time of atmospheric CO2 doubling, in a climate model simulation in which CO2 increases at 1% yr-1

Measure of the strength and rapidity of the surface temperature response to GHG forcing
Effective Climate Sensitivity
Amount of warming expected from a doubling of CO2 concentrations as deduced from transient changes in the climate

Measure of the strengths of the climate feedbacks at a particular time and may vary with forcing history and climate state, and therefore may differ from equilibrium climate sensitivity
Earth System Sensitivity (ESS)
Amount of warming expected from a doubling of CO2 concentrations after the climate has fully equilibrated

Response of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere-vegetation-carbon cycle to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations
Different Climate Sensitivities
Transient Climate Response (TCR): transient climate response to (and during) a continuous increase in radiative forcing

Effective Climate Sensitivity: deduced from transient climate change, taking ocean heat uptake into account

ECS: timescale of centuries

ESS: timescale of milenia
Future warming depends on:
Net climate forcing

Climate sensitivity

Climate response time
Efficacy
Defined as the ratio of the climate sensitivity parameter for a specific forcing agent to the climate sensitivity parameter for CO2 changes
What is the most uncertain physical feedback process of those that influence ECS? Why is this feedback in particular so uncertain
Cloud formation. Water evaporation is well understood, more water evaporates when temperature increases. Clouds have a short lifetime and it forms for various reason.
Explain how carbon cycle feedbacks can influence the maximum temperature increase reached over millennia for a given amount of GHG emissions. Provide two examples
Melting of frozen soil, permafrost resulting in methane release

Weathering of silicate rock which brings down CO2 concentrations (over long time frames)

Forest fires releasing CO2 into atmosphere

Most feedback loops are positive and therefore they dominate in the long term, and thus ECS becomes more sensitive
In IPCC AR5 the aerosol radiative forcing was estimated to be smaller in magnitude (ie less negative as aerosols cause cooling) than it was in AR4. Explain how this leads to a smaller estimate of ECS based on the instrumental period.
The increase in temperature will remain the same, however the net radiative forcing increases and thus by dividing by a larger number will result in a smaller climate sensitivity
What is the reason that the efficacy for aerosol radiative forcing may be larger than 1? In other words, why would radiative forcing by aerosols cause a larger temperature change than the same amount of radiative forcing from CO2
Aerosols are mostly produced over land and have a short halftime and thus stay within their area where they are produced. CO2 is more uniformly spread out. The same radiative forcing concentrated above land will result in a higher temperature than the same radiative forcing spread out over land and oceans which is the case for CO2. Correcting for this will bring the sensitivity up again.
Groningen Gas Field geologic setting
Giant natural gas field located near Slochteren in Groningen, Northeastern part of the Netherlands

Lies within the Southern Permian Basin which extends from East UK to Poland

Large volumes of gas have been discovered, mainly reservoired in the Rotliegend sandstone

Main reservoir in the field is Rotliegend Slochteren Sandstone; mainly an aeolian sand

Main source rock for the gas are coals and carbonaceous shales

Rotliegend is covered by the Late Permian Zechstein evaporite sequence, consisting of carbonate, anhydrite and halite, which provides an effective seal to the gas accumulations within the underlying sandstone

TOTAL PRODUCTION: 2216 x 10^9 Nm3

Gas in the field stands out for its composition with c.14% nitrogen
Small Fields Policy
470 fields have been discovered, some of which 250 are producing; Groningen field by far the largest; all the other fields therefore called small fields

Compulsory intake and transport of natural gas from small fields
The creation of a gas market
Export contracts: Belgium, France, Germany

National network: supply natural gas to millions of households in the Netherlands
Short Term Situation: Groningen is capacity provider for Gasunie; no short term sales Benefit of additional services

Long Term Situation: uncertain role, gas market liberalisation

Security of supply: by law NAM is obliged to produce natural gas at all times

Accounts for 2-10% of the state's income
Controversy and Closing the Field
1986 first induced earthquake recorded in Assen

2018: Dutch ministers deciding to reduce the production to 12 bcm/yr in 2022, and zero bcm/yr in 2030; termination of export contracts; Netherlands transforming from a natural gas exporter to importer
Oil and Gas Reservoirs
Formation of rock in which oil and natural gas has accumulated; oil and gas collected in small, connected pore spaces of rock and are trapped within the reservoir by adjacent and overlying impermeable layers of rock; hydrocarbon reservoirs
Conventional hydrocarbon reservoirs consist of three main parts:
(1) source rock: rock that contains the kerogen that the oil and gas forms from

(2) reservoir rock: porous permeable rock layer that holds the oil or gas
- Needs to be both porous and permeable

(3) cap rock: seals the top and sides so that the hydrocarbons are trapped in the reservoir, while water often seals the bottom
In order for a reservoir to exist
Oil and gas from the source rock must migrate into the reservoir rock, which takes millions of years; migration occurring because of density differences

Density difference causing the oil and gas to rise towards the surface so they are above groundwater with the gas settling above the oil because of its lighter densities; migration pathways
Process of fossil fuel formation
Oil and natural gas are formed from the remains of tiny aquatic animals and plants; vast quantities of these organisms are required to make a viable deposit of oil or gas.
- These organisms, once dead, would have sunk to the bottom of the body of water they were living in, been covered in silt and mud, and then started to decay anaerobically
- The anaerobic decay of these microorganisms means that while their cellular structures break down, the carbon chains that are the foundation of their bodies do not. As with coal formation time, pressure and heat drive out other substances such as water leaving mostly the carbon chains behind

Dead matter is covered with silt and mud; This silt and mud eventually compresses into rock, leaving the organic material trapped between two layers of rock
- As more silt and mud is laid down, more layers of rock are added on top of the organic matter layer.
How does natural gas lead to earthquakes?
X
Emissions caused by (hard to quantify these)
Bioenergy
Agriculture: planting, cultivating, fertilizing (N2O), watering, and harvesting

Transportation

Producing the end product (e.g. ethanol)

Burning the end product: soot, aerosols, NO, CO, etc.

Time lag between biofuel use and regrowth causes CO2 accumulation

Indirect land use effects
Land Use Change
greenhouse gas inventory sector that covers emissions and removals of greenhouse gases resulting from direct human-induced land use such as settlements and commercial uses, land-use change, and forestry activities.
Indirect Land Use Change impacts of biofuels
Unintended consequence of releasing more carbon emissions due to land-use changes around the world induced by the expansion of croplands for ethanol or biodiesel production in response to the increased global demand for biofuels

"Use of US croplands for biofuels increases GHGs through emissions from land use change"
"Corn based ethanol, instead of producing a 20% savings, nearly doubles GHG emissions over 30 years"
"Land clearing releases more carbon than is saved by biofuels
Biofuels and land clearing
Land to grow food + land to grow biofuels = an increase in the land needed for agriculture; much of this land is coming from natural ecosystems

Carbon emissions from these cleared lands can be greater, for decades to centuries, than the carbon offset by the biofuels grown on these lands
CO2 emissions from land clearing
= difference in carbon

Carbon released from LUC is 93x the carbon saved by 1 years corn production replacing fossil fuels

Carbon released from LUC is 319x the carbon saved by 1 years soy production replacing fossil fuels
How to avoid land clearance from biofuels
Protect natural ecosystems and the carbon they contain

Only use biomass feedstock that avoids land clearing
- Waste biomass; aquatic biomass; perennials on degraded lands
Payback time
after a certain amount of time the sum of upfront and annual emissions from the biofuel are equal to the avoided annual fossil fuel emissions
What can be done about global warming/climate change
Mitigation: reduce the cause of climate change;
conservation/ efficiencies/ decarbonisation

Geoengineering: modification of the climate system
CDR or SRM

Adaptation: reduce the impact of climate change
Protection
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDM)
Number of technologies of which the objective is the large scale removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere

These include: BECCS, enhanced weathering, direct air capture, ocean fertilisation
Solar Radiation Management (SRM)
Type of climate engineering which seeks to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming

Methods include: increasing planetary albedo using stratospheric sulfate aerosols, restorative methods revolving around the protection of natural heat reflectors

Could serve as a temporary response while levels of greenhouse gases can be brought under control by mitigation and greenhouse gas removal techniques. They would not reduce greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and thus do not address problems such as ocean acidification caused by excess carbon dioxide (CO2).

Only option to achieve fast cooling of the climate/planet

Only option if rapid cooling must be induced
Differences between CDM and SRM
X
Greenhouse Effect
GHGs absorb infrared radiation → less energy escaping to outer space → Earth is warmer than it otherwise would be

Human activity has increased the concentration of GHGs → Earth retains more energy and heats up as a result until the balance is restored

Difference between Earth's effective radiating temperature and surface temperature accounted for by greenhouse effect
How do GHGs cause warming
More greenhouse gases increasing the opacity of the atmosphere → IR loss to space from higher altitudes → Higher = colder, so energy loss decreases (stefan boltzmann) → creates a energy imbalance as less E goes out than comes in → increased energy content causing warming → warmer earth increases outgoing IR; continues until outgoing energy equals incoming energy again
How do we know that current warming is predominantly human induced?
Basic physics: GHG impede IR loss to outer space

Basic chemistry: GHG has an anthropogenic origin

Fingerprints in observed pattern of warming: stratospheric warming, nights warming faster than days

Paleoclimate confirms the important role of CO2

Global climate models can only reproduce warming if anthropogenic factors are included
The higher the expertise in climate science .....
the stronger the agreement on human caused global warming; consensus getting stronger with higher expertise

Appeal to fake experts: Exploitation of those with less knowledge to bring consensus down (such as economic geologists and meteorologists who are not publishing climate science research)
Rick Santorum claim of climate survey is wrong and misinterpreted because
Based on a wrong interpretation of just one of the two survey questions about the causes of recent climate change

Based on the argument that respondents who didn't provide a specific estimate for the contribution of GHGs think that this contribution is small; this is a wrong inference

Based on the argument that respondents who think that it is "likely" or "more likely than not" that GHGs are the dominant cause of recent warming disagree with this dominant influence
Consensus as an appeal to authority?
YES and NO

It is an appeal to the authority of the scientific community (as opposed to an individual); "wisdom of the crowd"

This in turn is based on trust in science; in the scientific processes and methods

Why trust science?: Because it works!

BUT we must keep an open mind about it
Galileo's Gambit (Fallacy)
Galileo was ridiculed in his time but later acknowledged to be right, that since non-mainstream views are provoking and ridicule and rejection from other scientists, they will later be recognized as correct too

FLAW: being ridiculed does not necessarily correlate with being right and that many people who have been ridiculed in history were, in fact wrong

Galileo did not fight against a scientific consensus; he fought against a religious/ cultural
Belief which was proven wrong by scientific evidence
The Public Debate
Distinguish scientific knowledge from value judgements and political preferences

Skeptics distrust of climate science can often be traced back to their dislike of proposed policy measures which leads to the motivated rejection of science
Reasons to dismiss mainstream science
Ideology: opposed to government regulation

Psychology: cultural identity; Galileo complex; professional deformation; siding with the underdog; overwhelmed

Confusion: aggravated by media reporting as false balance

Organized efforts: by vested interests or ideologies
Katharine Hayhoe View on Debate
The science is solid and logically led to a scientific consensus

Political orientation predicts belief in AGW

People form opinions on complex topics based on who they trust

Objections to climate science are rooted in objections to solutions

Many different solutions are being suggested, across the political spectrum
Setting Climate Targets:
(1) Ecological tipping point → reduce emissions up to that point; easy for policy making; some uncertainty involved, being safe has a cost

(2) Cost benefit analysis; Marginal damage = abatement curve; marginal cost = marginal benefit
The translation of future GDP losses in monetary valuation of present tonne CO2, done...
To determine optimal taxes and internalize externalities

To perform cost benefit analysis of specific measures and technologies
Delay between the costs and benefits of climate change
slow global increase in temperature from a single pulse of CO2
Discount Rates
Explanation for the variation in values/estimates?
Shows how much less we value costs and benefits the further they occur in the future

Present value (PV) of future value (FV) in year 't' and discount rate 'r'
Why do we discount?
capital considered to be productive (investment grows with time);

we'd rather consume now than later
Ramsey's Model (1928):
Further in future happiness occurs, lower value

Consumption in future, lower value
Consumption rate of interest
(AKA social rate of time preference)

CRI = pure rate of time preference (impatience) + (elasticity marginal utility x growth rate of consumption/ expectation of wealthiness)
Market interest rate and discount rate
Supply and demand

Producers obtain returns on capital (MRRI); returns on alternative investments

Consumers want compensation for postponing consumption (CRI); consumption discount rate
Equilibrium on capital market
equation
Descriptive (Nordhaus)
Deduce X and X from market interest rate
- Matches discount rates to descriptions of how society discounts taken from monetary interest rates observed in financial markets

Economists should look at what society wants (revealed interests in capital markets) = WRONG:
- Own consumption instead of future generations in climate policy; climate policy is about future generations
- Does not have to be based on revealed preferences; it is based upon climate science instead of popular beliefs
Prescriptive (Stern)
X and X as moral choices
Derives discount rates from fundamental ethical views, even if the resulting rates do not match market rates

Classic utilitarianism
Classic utilitarianism
Happiness = same regardless of time
"A pounds worth of satisfaction to an ordinary man is much greater than a pounds worth of satisfaction to a rich man"

Requires government reducing most present consumption to invest for future generations

Requires government reducing most present consumption to transfer to developing countries

Too demanding and counter intuitive
Discounted Utilitarianism
Future generations are remote (and we are allowed to care more about what is near)

Future generations are wealthier (and then an additional $ means less)

CRI = market rate interest

No climate policy is required

Too demanding and counter-intuitive
Rawls's Difference Principle
citizens concerned to protect and exercise their moral powers would agree on principles that guarantee equal basic liberties and the resources to pursue their good; not requiring a rule that requires absolute equality; self respect

Rules out libertarianism, perfectionism, theocracy, and utilitarianism

Allowing some citizens advantages that do not benefit the worst off implies that the latter are not equally worthy members of society → This endangers social stability by causing them to withdraw in sullen resentment from the public world
Deontology, negative rights, libertarianism
Perfect duties (no harm) / Imperfect duties (aid)

So no strong duties to impoverish ourselves to the benefit of future generations

Demanding at the right moment

Clashes with standard economics, based on consequentialism
Climate change as an intergenerational problem
CO2 remains in the atmosphere for millenia

Due to thermal inertia of the oceans there is at least a 50 year delay between present CO2 emissions and resulting damage

Mitigation determines the quality of life of future generations

Adaptation is to our own benefit
Ethics of climate change
Reflective equilibrium: finding a balance between our moral intuitions (data) and moral principles (theories)

Different principles as possible, but not everything goes

Two most important theories: utilitarianism and deontology
Deontology according to Immanuel Kant
Categorical imperatives:
- Act only according to that maxim whereby you can at the same time will that it should become an universal law
- Act in such a way that you treat humanity, whether in your own person, or in the person of any other, never merely as a means to an end, but always at the same time as an end

Perfect duties: do not steal/kill/lie; negative rights and duties

Imperfect duties: help others in need; positive rights and duties
Consequentialism (utilitarianism), Jeremy Bentham
Rights are rhetorical nonsense, nonsense upon stilts

Good is what maximises (total) happiness of all concerned
Groucho Marx: Why should I care about future generations? What have they ever done for me?
You ought to adhere to the social contract

You ought to maximise happiness (utilitarianism)

You ought to not harm others (deontology)

It is in your own interest
Circumstances of Justice (Hume)
Moderate scarcity → there is something to distribute

Moderate differences in strength → no-one is invulnerable to others

Moderate benevolence → we are neither angels nor devils
Social Contract
no moderate differences in strength between us and future generations; we are invulnerable to their wrath; no social contract is possible
Henry Sidgwick (Methods of Ethics, 1874)
The interest of posterity must concern a utilitarian as much as his contemporaries

Total Utilitarianism: supposing the average happiness enjoyed remains undiminished, utilitarianism directs us to make the number enjoying it as great as possible
Jan Narveson; Utilitarianism and New Generations:
All obligations and indeed all moral reasons for doing anything must be grounded upon the existence of persons who would benefit or be injured by the effects of our actions
Derek Parfit: Narveson's person affecting view is problematic → Non-identity problem
Climate policies change the course of history
A different future is populated by different people → we can neither improve or worsen the quality of life of future people
Harm Principle (1859)
The only reason for which power can rightfully be exercised over any member of a civilized community, against his will, is to prevent harm to others
Basic human need
to contribute to something that is larger than oneself, that exists outside oneself; to see that larger framework as valuable → to contribute to that larger framework

Self-transcendence → most people becoming aware of that larger framework around 40 (people are short sighted)
- Virtually all activities that we consider meaningful, assume an open future in which these activities are continued → i.e. sustainability (link)
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